Oil Surge

• U.S. stock futures fell late Sunday with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 130 points or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures also declining after record highs on Friday. • West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2% above $96 per barrel following collapsed U.S.-Iran talks announced Saturday. • The Federal Reserve's interest-rate committee meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell's likely final press conference anticipated amid market highs.

• US stock indexes rose on April 22, 2026, with the S&P 500 up 0.9% nearing its all-time high, Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 317 points or 0.7%, and Nasdaq composite jumping 1.3%. • Brent crude oil surged 3.6% to $102.04 per barrel due to uncertainty over the US-Iran war impacting Persian Gulf petroleum flows. • Corporate earnings boosted shares: GE Vernova soared 12.1% after exceeding first-quarter profit expectations, Boston Scientific rallied 8.6%, Boeing climbed 5.7%, and Philip Morris rose 6.9%.

• U.S. stock futures fell 0.46% Monday morning as Iran declined to engage in peace talks with the Trump administration, escalating geopolitical tensions. • Oil prices climbed to $95 per barrel, up from $86 three days prior, reflecting market concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. • Despite the geopolitical headwinds, markets have shown resilience with strong corporate earnings growth at 17% annually offsetting valuation pressures.

• Brent crude oil settled 4.7% higher at $99.39 per barrel on April 16 amid caution over Iran war. • Prices have risen from $70 pre-war to peaks near $119 due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. • The climb tempers market optimism, highlighting persistent energy supply risks.

Airline projected a $2bn increase in fuel costs this quarter amid volatility in oil markets sparked by the warThe CEO of Delta Air Lines, Ed Bastian, braced customers for higher fares following the surge in oil prices sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran, amid strong demand from passengers.Though rising oil prices have cost the company an extra $330m in fuel expenses, and it projected a $2bn increase in fuel costs in the current quarter, Delta forecast that revenue would grow 10% as flyers continue to book flights. Continue reading...

• Oil prices spiked sharply as geopolitical tensions escalated between Iran and the United States following military confrontations. • The U.S. dollar recovered against major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainty. • Energy markets remain volatile with traders closely monitoring developments in Middle East tensions and their impact on global supply chains.

• The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on April 5, 2026, against three Venezuelan oil executives accused of funding electoral fraud that displaced 200,000 migrants toward the US border. • Targets include PDVSA Vice President Carlos Vargas, with assets frozen and US travel bans; Secretary Blinken noted, 'These actions undermine democracy and fuel instability.' • Measures aim to pressure Maduro regime amid humanitarian crisis, where 8 million Venezuelans have fled since 2015, straining US border resources.

• US stock markets experienced sharp volatility in March 2026, with equities approaching correction territory before a month-end rally as oil prices surged significantly, driven by geopolitical events shaping the economic outlook. • Energy emerged as the strongest-performing sector, driving value stocks to materially outperform growth peers, while bond markets showed less stability than expected as inflation concerns contributed to higher rate volatility. • Despite market weakness and narrowing leadership, corporate profit expectations remained resilient with consensus earnings forecasts pointing to healthy growth in 2026, suggesting the selloff was driven by valuation reassessment rather than earnings deterioration.

• US stocks closed Q1 2026 attempting a rebound from the year's deepest downturn, with S&P 500 marking a second straight down month. • Geopolitics and soaring oil prices dominated sentiment, boosting energy as the sole positive sector while industrials weakened most. • Spot crude rallied 55.2% in March, the second-largest monthly gain in 40 years, lifting energy stocks significantly.

• Asian stock markets declined sharply as geopolitical tensions persisted, with South Korea's Kospi dropping 3.4%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.2%, and Taiwan's Taiex losing 2.2%, erasing year-to-date gains for some indexes. • Oil markets remained elevated with Brent crude holding near $113 per barrel and US benchmark crude at approximately $103, marking a surge of more than 40% since the Iran conflict began five weeks ago. • A reported drone strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker and ongoing regional attacks reinforced supply security concerns, keeping markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments despite signals the US may seek conflict resolution.

Brent crude jumps 51% since start of March and gold suffers fifth-largest monthly fall in 50 yearsMiddle East crisis – latest updatesThe Brent crude oil price is on track for its biggest monthly gain on record in March after the Iran war caused mayhem in the markets.Brent crude, the international benchmark, has climbed by 51% since the start of March, LSEG data shows, beating the previous monthly record of 46% in September 1990 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, leading to the first Gulf war. Continue reading...

• Crude oil prices have climbed to their highest levels since 2022, driven by geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran war and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. • President Trump extended his self-imposed deadline to "obliterate" Iran's power plants to April 6, contingent on Iran allowing oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. • The elevated oil prices are contributing to market volatility, with Wall Street experiencing daily fluctuations as investor sentiment shifts between hopes for war resolution and renewed concerns.

• President Donald Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days, pausing potential air strikes on power plants after closing the vital trade route. • Oil prices climbed higher due to Middle East conflict concerns, while Asian and European markets closed lower; US stocks ended Thursday down with Nasdaq in correction territory at 21,408.08. • ECB President Christine Lagarde warned equity markets are 'too optimistic' amid the 'real shock' in Iran, as Dow fell 1% to 45,960.11 and S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 6,477.16.

• S&P 500 dropped 0.80%, Dow Jones fell 0.83%, and Nasdaq 100 declined 0.98% in early trading on March 24, 2026, amid Middle East tensions. • Crude oil surged over 4% to $91.80, up $3.67, as Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf denied US negotiations, contradicting President Trump's claims of productive talks. • Citi analysts warn prolonged conflict could push oil to $200 per barrel, heightening inflation fears and pressuring equities.

Samoa and Tonga raise supply concerns with foreign partners as businesses and residents in Papua New Guinea grapple with higher fuel prices amid the Iran warThe leaders of some Pacific countries have appealed for help with oil supplies while others urge against “panic buying” as the import-reliant nations grapple with fears over possible fuel shortages and escalating costs caused by war in the Middle East.Oil prices have surged to nearly $110 a barrel after strikes against energy infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states. Continue reading...

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsUK wage growth slows sharply as unemployment holds steadyFed holds interest rates steady as Iran war drives up oil prices and inflation fearsMiddle East crisis live: Trump threatens to ‘blow up’ entire South Pars gasfield if Iran strikes QatarUK wage growth has slowed to a five-year low, in a worrying sign for workers as the Middle East crisis pushes up energy costs.Average pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 3.8% in the three months to January, down from 4.1% in October-December 2025, the Office for National Statistics reports.“With unemployment staying steady at 5.2% and a rare gain in payrolls employment, this report paints a mildly more positive picture of the labour market. And with wage growth softer again, in normal times this would have been a relatively reassuring report for the Bank of England.But the report feels stale in light of the Iran conflict, and the inflation risks stemming from the large spike in energy prices. So while today’s Bank of England meeting had once looked like the likely point of the next rate cut, instead policy is set to be kept on hold today as policymakers give themselves more time to see how the conflict plays out. Continue reading...

• Brent crude oil prices rose 3.2% to USD 103.42 per barrel, while US oil prices increased 2.9% to USD 96.21 per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz tensions and reduced vessel movement. • The Trump administration plans to ease sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector by issuing permits for foreign companies, aiming to boost crude production and counter soaring prices. • Global oil markets remain volatile as the Strait of Hormuz, through which 13 million barrels pass daily, faces ongoing disruptions from the Iran conflict.

• U.S. stocks ended higher on March 17, with the Dow Jones up 0.1% to 46,993.26, S&P 500 up 0.25% to 6,716.09, and Nasdaq up 0.47% to 22,479.53. • Energy sector led gains at 1.02% amid oil surge tied to Middle East tensions, while health care lagged down 0.92%. • Investors await Federal Reserve policy guidance from its latest meeting, boosting market sentiment despite volatility.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly drop, with the Dow falling 2% and Nasdaq shedding 1.3% due to soaring oil prices and broad market selling. • Surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran escalation, drove the downturn, as investors brace for NVIDIA GTC AI event and FOMC rate decision this week (March 16-20, 2026). • Markets now price only a 33% chance of a June rate cut, down from 57% last month, amid persistent inflation data; Thursday's jobless claims will gauge labor market health.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for its third consecutive weekly loss, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2% and the NASDAQ shed 1.3% as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices created broad selling pressure across all major indices. • Investors face a critical week ahead with the NVIDIA GTC conference (the "AI Oscars") scheduled alongside the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday and jobless claims data on Thursday. • Persistent inflation has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders pricing in just a 33% probability of a June rate cut compared to 57% one month ago, reflecting heightened uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week to 6,632.19, now down 5% from its January 27 high of 6,978.60 and 3.1% year-to-date, hit by broad selling across indices including Dow -2% and Nasdaq -1.3%. • Geopolitical tensions from US-Iran escalation drove oil higher, with markets pricing in prolonged uncertainty as the conflict enters its third week. • Core PCE price index rose 0.36% month-over-month, with annualized three-month trend at 3.7%, signaling persistent inflation pressuring Fed rate cut expectations.

• US stock futures fell in early Monday trading on March 16, 2026, while oil prices gained amid supply fears following a US military strike on Iran's Kharg Island, the country's main oil export terminal. • The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% last week to close at 6,632.19, marking its third straight weekly decline, with the Dow down 2% and Nasdaq off 1.3% due to geopolitical tensions and soaring oil. • Escalation risks persist as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, threatening prolonged supply disruptions and potential oil prices up to $200 per barrel in 2026, impacting global markets and commodities.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.78% to 22,111 on March 13, 2026, as surging oil prices and fears of Iran war fueled broad risk-off selling across US markets. The Dow fell 1.56% to 46,777, with the S&P 500 down 3% for March, turning yearly performance negative amid worries over global oil supply disruptions. Markets hoped for a Persian Gulf ceasefire that failed to materialize, shifting sentiment to defensive. This Friday's action highlights unique dangers from combined geopolitical and energy shocks.

US equity futures fell sharply on March 13, 2026, extending a market slide amid Brent oil prices surpassing $100 a barrel due to escalating tensions from the US-Israel war with Iran. Chevron shares rose 30% year-to-date while ConocoPhillips dipped slightly in premarket trading, reflecting energy sector volatility. The rally in oil prices deepened fears of a global inflation spike, with experts warning it poses the biggest risk to macro sentiment. Markets anticipate further volatility as the Trump administration advances second-round tariff investigations on 60 economies.

Brent crude oil has climbed above $100 per barrel, intensifying global inflation concerns and triggering a selloff in U.S. equity futures on March 13, 2026. The surge reflects escalating geopolitical tensions related to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which experts warn could dampen market sentiment and economic growth. Oil majors Chevron and ConocoPhillips are seeing significant gains, with Chevron up 30% year-to-date, as energy stocks benefit from higher crude prices. The broader market remains volatile as investors assess the macroeconomic implications of sustained elevated oil prices.