Uncertain

• Brent crude oil settled 4.7% higher at $99.39 per barrel on April 16 amid caution over Iran war. • Prices have risen from $70 pre-war to peaks near $119 due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. • The climb tempers market optimism, highlighting persistent energy supply risks.

UK’s biggest supermarket voices caution for year ahead despite annual profits rising 8.5% to £2.4bnBusiness live – latest updatesTesco has warned that profits could fall back in the year ahead amid “increased uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East”.The warning came after the UK’s biggest supermarket hit its highest share of the market in a decade. Continue reading...

Several shots – including flu and Covid – lost their CDC recommendations under overhauls from the White HouseSeveral shots lost their recommendation from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after a judge’s stay against changes wrought by the Trump administration – which may affect access to the shots in some states. And no new vaccine recommendations may be made as long as the vaccines committee is halted.Access to existing vaccines – and the future development of new vaccines – has been increasingly called into question under the second Trump administration, as the now-halted Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) made controversial recommendations and health officials made unilateral changes to routine vaccines, with long-term and global implications. Continue reading...

Prices were up 3.3% over the year, adding to the unpredictability that first came with Trump tariffsSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxUS inflation soared in March amid the US-Israel war with Iran, with prices up 0.9% compared to last month and 3.3% over the year, according to new data released Friday.The spike in the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of a basket of goods and services, is the largest in nearly two years and the first official measure of how the conflict has impacted US consumer prices, particularly as Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas would typically pass through. Continue reading...

Average price dips back below £300,000 after higher energy costs have knock-on effect on mortgage ratesUK house prices fell in March, as the housing market lost momentum amid uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East and the impact on the economy and interest rates.Figures from Halifax, which is part of Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender – showed property prices dipped by 0.5% in March compared with a month earlier. As a result, the average price of a home slipped back below £300,000, to £299,677, after first crossing the milestone in January. Continue reading...

Prime minister urges Australians to consider using public transport and conserve fuel for ‘critical industry’ and othersFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAustralian prime minister Anthony Albanese has used a rare address to the nation to attempt to allay public fears over dwindling fuel supplies, vowing to keep petrol prices down by shoring up international supplies and ramping up local production.But the opposition has been scathing of the address, describing it as “nothing but hot air” and urging more clarity over the fuel crisis. Continue reading...

• Asian stock markets declined sharply as geopolitical tensions persisted, with South Korea's Kospi dropping 3.4%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.2%, and Taiwan's Taiex losing 2.2%, erasing year-to-date gains for some indexes. • Oil markets remained elevated with Brent crude holding near $113 per barrel and US benchmark crude at approximately $103, marking a surge of more than 40% since the Iran conflict began five weeks ago. • A reported drone strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker and ongoing regional attacks reinforced supply security concerns, keeping markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments despite signals the US may seek conflict resolution.

• The benchmark S&P 500 fell for a fifth consecutive week and is down more than 7% since U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February. • Rising volatility and shifting rate expectations continue to pressure equity markets as geopolitical tensions compound economic uncertainties. • Market participants are reassessing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with implications for growth stock valuations.

• A year after federal mandates threatened to disrupt scientific research, university laboratories are experiencing cautious recovery in funding from NIH, NSF, and NASA. • Researchers at Northern Kentucky University and other institutions faced significant uncertainty when federal cuts impacted grants, laboratory operations, and student research opportunities. • The gradual thaw in federal science funding represents a critical turning point for academic research infrastructure, though underlying uncertainty about future appropriations remains.

• Crude oil prices have climbed to their highest levels since 2022, driven by geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran war and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. • President Trump extended his self-imposed deadline to "obliterate" Iran's power plants to April 6, contingent on Iran allowing oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. • The elevated oil prices are contributing to market volatility, with Wall Street experiencing daily fluctuations as investor sentiment shifts between hopes for war resolution and renewed concerns.

Passengers report varying experiences at different times of day at security screening as ICE agents assist TSA staffUS politics – live updatesHartfield-Jackson Atlanta international airport turned the digital wait time sign off days ago. Predicting passenger behavior can be hard; predicting the behavior of unpaid TSA agents is also hard. Keeping an accurate clock has been impossible.Even though ICE agents have started filling in for TSA screeners at some airports, a morning flight might mean a three-hour slog with lines winding around baggage carousels, from the security checkpoint all the way outside to the curb. Continue reading...

• Major US stock indexes fell on March 25 with the S&P 500 dropping 24.63 points (0.4%) to 6,556.37, the Dow Jones declining 84.41 points (0.2%) to 46,124.06, and the Nasdaq sinking 184.87 points (0.8%) to 21,761.89. • Oil prices rose as investors remain uncertain about the duration and impact of the Iran conflict on Persian Gulf energy supplies, with the two-year Treasury yield climbing to 3.92% from 3.83% on concerns about inflation. • The market pullback reflected renewed caution after rallies the previous day, as traders have nearly eliminated bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year due to elevated inflation risks from surging oil prices.

• The S&P 500 has fallen 4.7% in March 2026, marking its worst month since March 2025, as investors navigate uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict following U.S. and Israel airstrikes at the end of February. • The index is down 4.2% year to date and is heading for its first quarterly decline since Q1 2025, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.4% on March 24, the Dow Jones down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.8%. • DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas identified that all three major factors historically responsible for large calendar-year stock market declines are present in 2026, validating investor concerns about market volatility.

Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at first dismissed talks took place, insisting Trump’s claim was ‘fake news’ designed to soothe markets Middle East crisis – live updatesThe backchannel talks between Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, were not a secret in the sense that the Egyptian Foreign Ministry had tweeted that conversations were under way on Sunday, 24 hours before Donald Trump’s late Monday deadline to start blowing up Iran’s energy infrastructure.But such is the chaos surrounding the process that the discussions – thought to be well short of negotiations – may have lasted longer than Sunday, with more than one mediator, as is often the case, jostling for the title of peacemaker in chief. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, for instance, spoke with Trump on Sunday, while Pakistani prime minister, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, held talks with Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Monday. It is possible Pakistan could become the venue for further talks that this time would include JD Vance, the vice-president, a private sceptic about the war. Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, was right to warn not to bank on an early end to the conflict. Continue reading...

• United Airlines Holdings (UAL) announced plans to reduce scheduled capacity by approximately 5% in the second and third quarters of 2026, citing economic pressures. • The airline's stock fell 1.95% in pre-market trading on Monday following the capacity reduction announcement. • The move reflects broader market concerns about supply chain disruptions and financial contagion stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs impacting corporate profitability.

• The Federal Reserve's policy committee decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, 2026, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the implications of Middle East developments for the U.S. economy. • The Fed noted that while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, job gains have remained low and unemployment rates have shown little change, with inflation remaining somewhat elevated above the 2% target. • The Committee signaled readiness to adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could hinder maximum employment and price stability, indicating a cautious stance given current geopolitical and economic headwinds.

Corporation welcomes three-year settlement as it continues to push for government to take on all of service’s costsThe BBC World Service will be given increased government funding as part of a three-year deal after ministers concluded it was needed to counter the rise of global disinformation.The Guardian understands that Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, has agreed an additional £11m a year for the next three years on the government’s grant to the service. Continue reading...

• The Federal Reserve opened a two-day monetary policy meeting this week with a rate decision expected Wednesday, as officials evaluate the impact of surging oil prices and Middle East conflict on inflation trajectories. • Uncertainty around geopolitical fallout is deepening divisions within the central bank over the interest rate path forward; officials are widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday despite elevated crude prices. • Rising oil and gasoline prices are weighing on earnings estimates and consumer spending forecasts, creating additional complexity for Fed policymakers balancing inflation and growth concerns.

Warner Bros' films *One Battle After Another* and *Sinners* are favored for major wins at the 2026 Oscars this weekend, positioning the studio for success despite looming takeover plans. The proposed $110 billion Paramount-Skydance merger, subject to regulatory reviews, threatens Hollywood stability by consolidating two legacy studios and risking job losses. Teamsters president Sean M. O'Brien warned, 'This merger threatens the livelihoods of workers who built these studios.' Industry figures like JJ Abrams describe the atmosphere as 'shaky and unsettled,' with attention now turning post-ceremony.