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First quarter output, driven by AI investment and government spending, rose as oil shock fuels inflation fearsUS gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated 2% in the first three months of 2026, though consumer spending is slowing as the war with Iran continues to impact energy prices.The last GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed that US economic growth slowed to a 0.5% pace, largely due to a contraction in government spending after massive layoffs of federal workers last year. The federal government is down 355,000 workers, or 11.8% of the workforce, since October 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continue reading...

• Gas prices have surged above $4 per gallon and flights skyrocketed as the Strait of Hormuz blockade impacts energy markets amid the US-Israel war with Iran, eroding Trump's key political advantage. • More than three-quarters of registered voters—including over half of Republicans and 82% of independents—now blame Trump for the cost-of-living crisis affecting fuel, groceries, housing, and healthcare. • Trump's second-term approval ratings have fallen far faster than previous presidents after a government shutdown, tariffs, and the joint US-Israel attack on Iran, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning the war is fueling inflation.

Actions expected to exceed 3,000 as unions and groups expand protests inspired by Minnesota ICE crackdownLabor unions, democratic organizations and community groups are organizing an economic blackout this year to commemorate May Day, International Workers Day, inspired by the economic blackout in Minnesota during the massive ICE operation in the state.May Day Strong events are being planned across the US, with organizers calling for “no school, no work, no shopping”, in protest of government policies they say put billionaires’ needs above those of workers. Continue reading...

• President Donald Trump signed a series of emergency executive orders from the Oval Office on April 25, 2026, enacting the 'World's Most Powerful Reset' to address national security and economic stability. • The orders grant the administration vast new powers over the U.S. economy and financial system, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's role amid foreign threats. • The actions have triggered fierce debate over constitutional authority, with volatile reactions from Democrats and Republicans, and shockwaves in global markets.

• President Donald Trump signed a series of emergency executive orders from the Oval Office, dubbed the 'World's Most Powerful Reset,' targeting U.S. economic stability and national security. • The orders grant the administration expanded powers over the economy and financial system, including potential alterations to the Federal Reserve's role amid foreign threats. • The actions have triggered market volatility, fierce partisan debate, and questions over constitutional authority from Democrats and some Republicans.

• The U.S. market advanced 1.7% over the past seven days, continuing its strong performance with a 34% gain over the past year. • Earnings are projected to grow by 16% annually, reflecting broad-based economic expansion across sectors. • The sustained market strength indicates investor confidence in corporate profitability and economic fundamentals heading into late April.

Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since October 2023 this month, with surveys showing the cost pressures companies are facingConfidence in the UK economy has fallen sharply amid the mounting economic fallout from the Iran war, surveys show, as businesses prepare to raise their prices and consumers brace for a fresh cost of living shock.Highlighting the knock-on impact of the Middle East crisis in Britain, several closely-watched surveys of business activity and consumer confidence blamed the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran for a marked deterioration in the outlook in April. Continue reading...

Prime minister details efforts to attract investment and sign trade deals with other countries in 10-minute video addressCanada’s strong economic ties to the United States were once a strength but are now a weakness that must be corrected, the country’s prime minister has warnedIn a 10-minute video address, Mark Carney spoke about his government’s efforts to strengthen the Canadian economy by attracting new investments and signing trade deals with other countries. Continue reading...

Agreements would aim to shield British industry from new steel tariffs and stricter rules on electric vehicles due in 2027Downing Street hopes to secure deals on steel and electric cars with the EU as it seeks to upgrade the post-Brexit economic relationship.Amid economic uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East and strains in relations with the US, Keir Starmer is seeking closer economic ties with the EU. Continue reading...

• President Donald Trump signed a series of emergency executive orders from the Oval Office, with the White House describing them as the 'World's Most Powerful Reset,' reportedly granting the administration vast new powers over the U.S. economy and financial system. • The orders are grounded in national security protocols and reportedly address economic stability and foreign threats, with details remaining tightly controlled by the White House. • The executive action has triggered fierce debate over presidential constitutional authority and sparked volatile political reactions from both Democrats and Republicans across the political spectrum.

• The United Kingdom, United States, Italy, and France have jointly emphasized the urgent need for peace, stability, and long-term prosperity in the Middle East as the Iran crisis threatens global economic and security interests. • The four Western powers are coordinating on a de-escalation strategy focused on protecting civilian lives, safeguarding global energy routes, and reopening key trade corridors including the Strait of Hormuz. • Western officials have highlighted concerns over global energy disruption, inflation risks, and the need for immediate diplomatic resolution amid the escalating regional tensions.

Conflict is pushing up price of energy and food, fuelling higher borrowing costs and hitting growth, report saysIran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warnsBusiness live – latest updatesThe Iran war risks triggering a rise in global debt levels, forcing governments to choose between cushioning a cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Against a volatile backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Washington-based fund said the war could add to the already strained position of government finances throughout the world. Continue reading...

US military boasts blockade of the strait of Hormuz will incapacitate Iran’s economy; Trump says negotiations could return to PakistanUS-Iran peace talks could resume in next two days, Trump saysWelcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East.The US military has said American forces have completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea through a blockade.An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”Donald Trump has said that talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, according to an interview with the New York Post. “Something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump was quoted as saying.US secretary of state Marco Rubio said Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on Tuesday were a “historic opportunity”. He said that while every complexity would not be resolved immediately, he hoped the parties would begin to move forward.Lebanon’s president expressed hope that direct talks would lead to an end to his country’s “suffering” after war erupted again between Israel and Hezbollah last month. “I hope that the meeting in Washington... will mark the beginning of the end of the suffering of the Lebanese people in general, and those in the south in particular,” president Joseph Aoun said in a statement, adding that “stability will not return to the south if Israel continues to occupy its lands”.Lebanon’s top envoy to the US said the high-level diplomatic engagement between her country and Israel was “constructive,” but urged an end to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants that has displaced thousands of Lebanese. After participating in Tuesday’s talks with Rubio and Israel’s ambassador to the US, Nada Hamadeh Moawad said she had “underscored the need to preserve our territorial integrity and state sovereignty”.The US will not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week officials told Reuters, as the US imposes a blockade on shipments from Iranian ports.UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz, Downing Street said. A spokesperson said: “The summit will advance work towards a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping once the conflict ends.”Trump criticised Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, a political ally, in an interview published on Tuesday for her unwillingness to help in the Iran war. “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong,” he told Italian daily Corriere della Sera.Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt will meet Turkey’s top diplomat this week for talks on regional matters, a ministry source told AFP on Tuesday. “This is the third meeting of the four countries to discuss regional affairs, not specifically Hormuz,” said the source, who wished to remain anonymous.Hezbollah said it targeted 13 northern Israeli towns with rockets shortly after the start of Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington. In a statement, the group said it targeted Kiryat Shmona, Metula and 11 other towns “with simultaneous rocket salvos” at 6.15pm.US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said the underlying US economy remains strong and that growth could still exceed 3% or 3.5% this year despite the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran. Earlier on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecasts for 2026 based on the impact of the war and said any further escalation in the conflict could trigger a global recession. Bessent however cast cuts in global growth forecasts and higher inflation projections by the IMF and World Bank as an overreaction. Continue reading...

Oil-driven inflation is big challenge to world economy, lifting inflation and depressing growth, says bank’s chairBusiness live – latest updatesHSBC bosses have said the Iran war is already hitting global economic confidence, as a string of business leaders warned over the impact of the conflict.Georges Elhedery, the Lebanon-born chief executive of the bank, told Bloomberg Television at a HSBC conference in Hong Kong: “We’re saddened and concerned with what’s happening in the Middle East, and we’re concerned not just with what’s happening but also with how long this will take. Continue reading...

Nationals leader’s solution to the high cost of living is to force us to buy more expensive, locally made goodsMatt Canavan’s “economic revolution” is a populist mirage masquerading as an answer to a generational challenge that will define our prosperity in the decades to come.That challenge is: how do we create a new economy that is more resilient, secure and affordable, without undermining our prosperity?Patrick Commins is Guardian Australia’s economics editor Continue reading...

• Presidents of Brazil and Argentina held high-level talks on April 6 to establish a new bilateral trade framework reducing tariffs and increasing agricultural and technology sector cooperation, aiming to strengthen Mercosur. • The leaders agreed to coordinate regional responses to global economic pressures and announced plans for joint infrastructure investments; discussions included currency stabilization mechanisms to address exchange rate volatility. • Both nations emphasized commitment to democratic governance and rule of law amid regional concerns about institutional challenges; the initiative signals Latin American countries seeking greater economic autonomy.

JP Morgan boss appears to condemn president’s tariff regime in annual letter to shareholdersMiddle East crisis – live updatesThe head of America’s largest bank has pressed the White House to strengthen America’s allies economically in order to “avoid truly adverse consequences”, in the latest instalment of an increasingly testy relationship with the Trump administration.As the Middle East conflict sparked by US and Israeli attacks on Iran enters its sixth week, Jamie Dimon, the chair and chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, said in his annual letter to shareholders that “good” US foreign policy should put America first “though not alone”. Continue reading...

• Somalia announced plans for historic oil drilling operations, marking a significant economic development for the Horn of Africa nation. • The initiative carries substantial geopolitical weight as it could reshape regional influence and resource control in East Africa. • Industry analysts view the project as transformative for Somalia's economy and a potential catalyst for regional stability or tension.

• The US-Israeli war on Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, with strikes on leadership and nuclear facilities, has led to Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure, rivaling 1970s oil crises. • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing sparked Iranian strikes on Israel and US bases, disrupting 20% of global oil transit and surging prices by 40%. • US markets face inflation risks, with experts warning of recession if chokepoint remains closed beyond two weeks.

President is expected to offer a timeline for end of the war, and speak about his threat to withdraw the US from Nato as he faces falling poll numbers and global energy crisisTrump says he is ‘absolutely’ considering withdrawing US from Nato Israel hits Iran with waves of attacks and says it killed top Hezbollah commanderWelcome to our continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East, as Donald Trump prepares to address America for the first time since the US-Israel war on Iran was launched.The president will deliver the prime-time speech at 9pm ET from the White House.Iran has rejected Donald Trump’s claim that its leadership asked for a ceasefire, calling the US president’s statement “false” and “baseless”. Trump made the claim in a post on Truth Social, which said: “Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”Trump also said he is “absolutely” considering withdrawing the US from Nato, warning that the matter was “beyond reconsideration” after the refusal of US allies to join the US-Israeli war against Iran. The president’s threats, his most determined to date, have left the alliance facing its worst crisis in its 77-year history, a former US ambassador has said. Here’s our story.Meanwhile, in an open letter to the American people, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian said relations between Washington and Tehran were “misunderstood” and that Iran was not an aggressor. The Iranian “harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighbouring countries,” he said, adding that portrayals of Iran as a security threat were inaccurate, and Tehran was acting in self-defence – not aggression.In Tehran, Kamal Kharazi, a top foreign policy official and former Iranian foreign minister, has been severely injured in an airstrike on his home in the Iranian capital. His wife was reportedly killed in the attack. Kharazi, considered a moderate politician and veteran policy expert, also served as an adviser to the assassinated former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reports suggest his targeting is being viewed as an attempt to derail diplomacy. Continue reading...

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March will be released Friday amid sharp energy price increases due to Middle East conflict, providing critical snapshot of labor market health as investors reassess economic outlook. • HSBC economists expect "modest but positive growth" in employment, though markets have slashed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with money markets pricing only 42% probability of a rate increase in 2026. • This week's data releases—including ADP private payrolls (Wednesday), JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), jobless claims (Thursday), and consumer confidence surveys—will reveal war impact on business and consumer sentiment.

• The benchmark S&P 500 fell for a fifth consecutive week and is down more than 7% since U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February. • Rising volatility and shifting rate expectations continue to pressure equity markets as geopolitical tensions compound economic uncertainties. • Market participants are reassessing expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with implications for growth stock valuations.

Energy minister Michael Shanks reassures drivers ahead of chancellor’s statement to MPsGood morning. At lunchtime Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will give a statement to MPs that will cover what the government is doing, and (more tentatively) might do, in response to the soaring global energy prices caused by the Iran war. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, also creating a global energy shortage, the Conservative government ended up spending £40bn supporting families and firms with energy bills over the following winter. Reeves’s problem is that she has not got £40bn spare. With spring upon us, and people starting to turn down their central heating, the issue may not seem particularly pressing in many households (although heating oil and petrol prices are already soaring.) But, by the end of this year, this could be the sort of colossal economic crisis that gets remembered for half a century.As Chris Mason explains in a good preview, Reeves is expected to cover three points. She is expected to confirm that the government wants to give the Competition and Markets Authority new powers to deal with any potention profiteering by oil companies. She will confirm that the government wants to go “further and faster to secure the next generation of nuclear power and to reclaim Britain’s place as a leading nuclear nation” (as the Treasury puts it in its overnight preview).[Drivers] should do everything as absolutely normal because there is no shortage of fuel anywhere in the country at the moment. We monitor this every single day, I look at the numbers personally. There’s no issue at all with that …People should go about their business as normal. That’s what the RAC and the AA have said. It’s really important people do that. There’s no shortage of fuel and everything is working as normal.Look genuinely, people shouldn’t change their behaviour or their habits in the slightest. Continue reading...

• United Airlines Holdings (UAL) announced plans to reduce scheduled capacity by approximately 5% in the second and third quarters of 2026, citing economic pressures. • The airline's stock fell 1.95% in pre-market trading on Monday following the capacity reduction announcement. • The move reflects broader market concerns about supply chain disruptions and financial contagion stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs impacting corporate profitability.

Britain authorises use of military bases to strike Iranian missile launchers that target shipping in strait of HormuzPresident Trump branded the UK and other Nato allies “cowards” on Friday amid growing anger among cabinet ministers that his war in Iran could jeopardise Britain’s fragile finances. Senior members of the government are in despair about the potential effects on the economy, with experts warning of higher energy prices and mortgage and borrowing costs. They have already begun contingency planning in case the conflict is protracted – lowering speed limits to minimise fuel consumption is among the measures that could be considered by transport officials.With conflict continuing to escalate, the UK confirmed it was now authorising the use of British military bases to strike Iranian missile launchers that are targeting commercial ships in the strait. Continue reading...

• The Federal Reserve's policy committee decided to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, 2026, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the implications of Middle East developments for the U.S. economy. • The Fed noted that while economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, job gains have remained low and unemployment rates have shown little change, with inflation remaining somewhat elevated above the 2% target. • The Committee signaled readiness to adjust monetary policy if risks emerge that could hinder maximum employment and price stability, indicating a cautious stance given current geopolitical and economic headwinds.

Offer to reform taxes, tackle ‘rip-off Britain’ and overhaul fiscal rules could tempt exasperated Labour supportersZack Polanski says Greens would ditch GDP targets and focus on wellbeing insteadThe venue for Zack Polanski’s economic speech on Wednesday – a sunny north London garden centre – could hardly have been more different to the sombre City backdrop for Rachel Reeves’s Mais lecture on Tuesday.The chancellor was, as it happens, the last politician to give a major economic speech at the New Economics Foundation (NEF), the leftwing thinktank that invited the Green party leader, Polanski, to set out his stall as part of its 40th anniversary celebrations. Back in 2018 it hosted the speech in which, as a backbencher, Reeves called for an “everyday economics” that would prioritise the needs of low-paid workers. Continue reading...

• The U.S. Senate unanimously passed the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act (S. 3971), extending the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs for five years. • SBIR and STTR provide critical federal funding helping small businesses translate research discoveries into commercial technologies, often in partnership with universities. • The bill now moves to the House for consideration, with the earliest possible vote expected after March 16, 2026.