Amid Iran

AI投資と政府支出が牽引し、第1四半期の生産高は増加したが、オイルショックがインフレ懸念を煽っている。2026年第1四半期の米国内総生産（GDP）は2％加速したが、イランとの戦争がエネルギー価格に影響を及ぼし続けており、個人消費は減速している。2025年第4四半期の前回GDP統計では、昨年実施された連邦政府職員の大規模解雇に伴う政府支出の縮小を主因として、米経済成長は0.5％のペースに鈍化していた。労働統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）によると、連邦政府の職員数は2024年10月以降、労働力の11.8％に相当する355,000人減少している。続きを読む...

• アラブ首長国連邦（UAE）は昨日OPECから脱退し、深刻化する地域危機の中でサウジアラビアとの歴史的な決別を印象づけた。 • この決定は、イラン産原油の輸出阻止を目的とした米国による海上封鎖により、ホルムズ海峡がほぼ完全に封鎖されている状況と重なっている。 • 米国はイラン産原油の取引を阻止するため、中国の大大手銀行を自国の金融システムから排除すると脅しており、世界的なエネルギー情勢の緊張を高めている。

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returned to Islamabad on April 27, 2026, to push a new proposal through Pakistani mediators aimed at ending the US-Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. • The proposal reached the White House, but President Trump canceled planned envoy visits by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, citing lack of progress, while indirect talks continue. • Araghchi headed to Moscow for talks with President Putin after blaming the US for failed peace efforts; Russia urged Washington to abandon ultimatums in Vienna negotiations.

US president says there’s ‘no reason to meet’ Tehran unless they agree never to have nuclear weaponsWelcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.Donald Trump has said Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate an end to the war and that it must agree never to have a nuclear weapon, while Pakistan’s leaders have sought to revive the stalled peace talks between Washington and Tehran.Iran gave the US a new proposal on reopening the strait and ending the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, according to the news site Axios. The US state department and White House did not immediately comment on the Sunday report, which cited an unnamed US official and two sources.Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials on Sunday had included “implementing a new legal regime over the strait of Hormuz, receiving compensation, guaranteeing no renewed military aggression by warmongers and lifting the naval blockade”, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. In the talks with Omani leader Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, Araghchi called for a regional security framework free of outside interference.Araghchi would meet with Putin “in continuation of the diplomatic jihad to advance the country’s interests and amid external threats”, Iran’s envoy in Russia, Kazem Jalali, said on X.Two US air force C-17s carrying security staff, equipment and vehicles used to protect US officials flew out of Pakistan after the latest diplomatic trip was called off, two Pakistani government sources told Reuters on Sunday. Continue reading...

• UN International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that the blockading of ships in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict has turned international shipping and seafarers into leverage in geopolitical disputes. • The crisis highlights how vessels and crews, not involved in the conflict, are being caught up in hostilities between the United States and Iran, disrupting global trade routes. • This development underscores critical weaknesses in global shipping networks, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and risks to maritime security worldwide.

• Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired by the Pentagon on Wednesday night amid escalating tensions with Iran over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. • The firing comes as the U.S. maintains military pressure on Iran, with reports indicating the blockade is costing Iran an estimated $500 million per day and pushing the regime toward economic collapse. • U.S. intelligence officials warn that Iran retains thousands of missiles and drones capable of threatening American interests in the region.

Iran seizes two ships in critical waterway as Washington and Tehran maintain separate blockades. Plus, Jodi Kantor on how to find a career you loveGood morning.Iranian forces have seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.What has Donald Trump said? The US president announced that the US would extend the ceasefire with Iran until the country’s leaders came up with a “unified proposal” to US negotiating positions amid Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government. He had earlier threatened to renew bombing. White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Trump was “satisfied” with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and “understands Iran is in a very weak position”.This is a developing story. Follow the liveblog here.Who took part in the debate? The primetime showdown, hosted by Nexstar Media Group, featured two Republicans – Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and director of strategy to the former UK prime minister David Cameron, and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County – and the four leading Democrats: the billionaire Tom Steyer, the former health secretary Xavier Becerra, the former congresswoman Katie Porter and the San Jose mayor, Matt Mahan. Continue reading...

Standoff between Iran and US continues as both impose blockades of critical shipping waterway Iranian forces have seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz, as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the critical shipping waterway that have choked global energy markets.The standoff over the narrow waterway – through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through during peacetime – raised doubts about whether stalled peace negotiations would resume. Continue reading...

Annual March rate adds to pressure on household finances and follows warnings of slowdown to UK economyUK inflation rose by 3.3% in March amid the surge in fuel prices for motorists triggered by the Iran war.Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the consumer prices index increased last month from 3% in February, adding to pressure on household finances already battered by a cost of living crisis. The rise matched City economists’s forecast of an increase to 3.3%. Continue reading...

Iran’s top negotiator says both sides remain far apart after Tehran again closed strait of Hormuz after US said it would not end its blockadeFull report: Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’Welcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Saturday that the recent talks with the US had made progress but gaps remained over nuclear issues and the strait of Hormuz. “We have had progress but there is still a big distance between us,” he told state media, referring to talks last weekend. “We made progress in the negotiations, but there are many gaps and some fundamental points remain.”After the initial talks between the US and Iran last weekend in Pakistan, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said a second date cannot be set until both sides “have agreed on the framework”.Iran’s supreme national security council, the country’s highest decision-making body under the supreme leader, said it is reviewing “new proposals” put forward by the US, according to Iranian media.Hezbollah has denied it was involved in the deadly attack against UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, which killed a French soldier. A UN peacekeeper was killed and three others were injured after a patrol came under attack from “non-state actors”, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon said.Israeli forces on Saturday began demolishing homes in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil and other border towns where Israeli troops are present, Lebanese state media reported.The Israeli military killed two Unicef-contracted truck drivers at a water point in the northern Gaza Strip, forcing the UN agency to suspend its operations in the area, Unicef said.Pope Leo XIV said that it is “not in my interest at all” to debate Trump about the Iran war, but that he would continue preaching the Gospel message of peace.Trump left the White House Saturday afternoon to play golf, despite Iran’s re-closure of the strait of Hormuz in response to the US blockade of Iranian ports. Continue reading...

• The United Kingdom, United States, Italy, and France have jointly emphasized the urgent need for peace, stability, and long-term prosperity in the Middle East as the Iran crisis threatens global economic and security interests. • The four Western powers are coordinating on a de-escalation strategy focused on protecting civilian lives, safeguarding global energy routes, and reopening key trade corridors including the Strait of Hormuz. • Western officials have highlighted concerns over global energy disruption, inflation risks, and the need for immediate diplomatic resolution amid the escalating regional tensions.

• The Pentagon is reportedly reaching out to civilian manufacturers including Ford and General Motors to boost weapons production, as years of supplying Ukraine followed by sustained Middle East operations have allegedly drained critical missile stockpiles. • Reports suggest the US military is facing a deepening munitions crisis affecting high-tech systems like THAAD and Tomahawk missiles, raising questions about industrial capacity to meet demand. • The growing focus on weapons production and ceasefire negotiations has sparked debate about whether diplomatic efforts are being driven by strategy or by supply constraints.

• A fragile US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on April 22, 2026, with diplomatic talks stalled and tensions escalating over competing demands and military posturing. • Iran's spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei criticized the US position as unrealistic, while Tehran condemned Washington's naval blockade as provocative and a potential trigger for ceasefire violations. • Pakistan continues mediating indirect talks between the two nations, though no date has been set for the next round of negotiations as fears of renewed escalation mount.

• Donald Trump announced a major ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon while signaling progress toward a potential nuclear deal with Iran. • The development represents a significant diplomatic initiative amid broader Middle East tensions and ongoing US-Iran negotiations. • The ceasefire comes as regional dynamics continue to shift with multiple diplomatic channels active simultaneously.

UK’s biggest supermarket voices caution for year ahead despite annual profits rising 8.5% to £2.4bnBusiness live – latest updatesTesco has warned that profits could fall back in the year ahead amid “increased uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East”.The warning came after the UK’s biggest supermarket hit its highest share of the market in a decade. Continue reading...

• The U.S. and Iran agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire, marking a potential diplomatic breakthrough after 47 days of conflict. • Under the agreement, both Iran and Oman will be permitted to participate in the pause in hostilities, with U.S. military personnel and weaponry remaining positioned in and around Iran until a peace deal is finalized. • The ceasefire emerges as negotiators push for a next round of talks, though tensions remain high with shipping disruptions continuing in the Strait of Hormuz.

Congressman says keeping gas supplies at home could lower costs for Americans amid price hikes sparked by warAmid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.” Continue reading...

War spurs debate on US power and role in the world – and progressives eye chance to reorient American foreign policyWell over a year into Donald Trump’s disruptive second term, few believed the US president could still genuinely shock. But at 8.06am on Tuesday he did just that, with an apocalyptic threat on Truth Social, to destroy a “whole civilization” in Iran – a country of more than 90 million people. Democrats abandoned their forced restraint and immediately began to call for Trump’s removal from office.Yet beneath Democrats’ near-universal opposition to what they call the president’s “war of choice” are simmering tensions about the way America should engage with the world, especially when it comes to the Middle East. Since losing to Trump and his America First agenda in 2024, which promised not to start new wars, leading progressives have urged Democrats to reclaim the “anti-war” mantle. Continue reading...

• President Trump is reexamining the United States' relationship with NATO, as his irritation with American allies who refused to join the war against Iran reaches a climax. • Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on March 31 that 'after this conflict has concluded, we should reevaluate' America's role in the alliance, while NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker said on April 1 that 'everything's on the table.' • The reconsideration reflects Trump's frustration with NATO members' reluctance to support U.S. military operations in Iran, signaling potential fundamental shifts in transatlantic security arrangements.

• Pakistan has positioned itself as a primary mediator between the United States and Iran following the recent Middle East war, leading efforts to end hostilities after Trump's threats prompted a White House reversal. • Peace talks are set to begin in Pakistan on April 10, welcomed by India, as the two-week ceasefire takes hold amid reshaping West Asian strategic landscape. • China supports Pakistan's role, having jointly submitted a five-point truce plan with Islamabad to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before escalation.

• Iranian cyberattacks target critical U.S. infrastructure as President Trump threatens strikes on Iran's bridges and power plants. • The cyber activity escalates frictions during the fraying ceasefire, with unclear U.S. peace terms. • U.S. officials report the attacks follow Trump's profanity-laden threats, prompting Democratic backlash.

Airline projected a $2bn increase in fuel costs this quarter amid volatility in oil markets sparked by the warThe CEO of Delta Air Lines, Ed Bastian, braced customers for higher fares following the surge in oil prices sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran, amid strong demand from passengers.Though rising oil prices have cost the company an extra $330m in fuel expenses, and it projected a $2bn increase in fuel costs in the current quarter, Delta forecast that revenue would grow 10% as flyers continue to book flights. Continue reading...

Company earnings expected to soar to between $200m and $700m in first quarterBusiness live – latest updatesShell is expected to report “significantly higher” profits from its commodity trading desks in the first quarter of this year after weeks of market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis.The surge in energy commodity markets over recent weeks is expected to drive up trading results at Shell’s chemicals and products unit, which includes its main oil trading desk. Continue reading...

Lawmakers call for use of 25th amendment after president brazenly threatens to commit war crimes in IranAs Donald Trump unleashes curse-filled threats against Iran, Democrats are raising alarm over his mental stability and calling for his removal from office – while Republicans remain conspicuously silent.Democrats are escalating their rebukes as the 79-year-old president delivers rambling, incoherent speeches, hurls puerile insults at US allies and brazenly threatens to commit war crimes. He used an Easter Sunday social media post to warn Iran to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell”. Continue reading...

• Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have initiated mediation between the US and Iran to end the ongoing war, relaying messages since its start. • An Islamabad-brokered ceasefire plan was presented to both sides on Monday, proposing a 15-20 day settlement with immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a US Tuesday deadline threatening escalated strikes. • Earlier on March 25, a 15-point US proposal via Pakistan demanded dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities, missile limits, and a 30-day ceasefire, countered by Iran's five conditions including compensation and maritime control rights.

• Oil prices spiked sharply as geopolitical tensions escalated between Iran and the United States following military confrontations. • The U.S. dollar recovered against major currencies as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainty. • Energy markets remain volatile with traders closely monitoring developments in Middle East tensions and their impact on global supply chains.

• A US fighter jet was shot down over Iran as military tensions between Washington and Tehran intensify dramatically. • The incident marks a significant escalation in direct military confrontation between the two nations amid ongoing threats and counter-threats. • US forces have deployed advanced long-range missile systems in response, positioning for potential large-scale operations.

• Oil prices surged as geopolitical tensions related to the Iran war intensified, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade causing the largest global oil supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis. • The US dollar strengthened amid escalating geopolitical risk, reflecting investor flight to safe-haven assets as financial markets react to the conflict's economic impact on energy supplies and global trade.