Iran Peace

米イスラエルによるイラン攻撃で戦争が始まってから2ヶ月が経過したが、ホルムズ海峡の支配権とイラン核計画の今後という2つの主要な論点が争点となり、和平交渉は停滞している。(Image credit: Vahid Salemi)

• U.S. stock futures were slightly down or mixed on Monday morning as investors reacted to stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran. • The geopolitical tension created uncertainty in markets, with traders reassessing risk positions amid the diplomatic impasse. • Energy and defense sectors showed particular sensitivity to the developments, reflecting concerns about potential escalation.

Deepening sense of deadlock despite regional diplomacy as Washington and Tehran show no signs of compromiseHopes of a breakthrough in negotiations between Iran and the US faded further on Sunday, amid a deepening sense of a deadlock in the nearly two-month-long conflict despite intense regional diplomatic activity.Washington and Tehran appear unwilling to moderate rhetoric or make concessions, and there are no negotiations scheduled that might bring the war to a definitive end. Continue reading...

Abbas Araghchi to visit Pakistan, Oman and Russia to see if talks can be reopened, with both sides still in stalemateMiddle East crisis – live updatesThe Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is planning a tour of Pakistan, Russia and Oman in an effort to see if there is a basis to reopen peace talks that can end with a permanent US-Israeli commitment to cease its attacks on Iran, now one of Tehran’s key demands.Araghchi is also likely to discuss a potential permanent new arrangement on governing the strait of Hormuz with Oman, which oversees the south of the strait. Continue reading...

Standoff between Iran and US continues as both impose blockades of critical shipping waterway Iranian forces have seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz, as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the critical shipping waterway that have choked global energy markets.The standoff over the narrow waterway – through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through during peacetime – raised doubts about whether stalled peace negotiations would resume. Continue reading...

Donald Trump says US ready to renew attacks but Iran appears unwilling to bend to US president’s threatsIntense efforts were under way on Tuesday to bring Iran and the US together in Pakistan for a new round of talks, a day before the end of the two-week ceasefire that has paused the conflict in the Middle East.Donald Trump said on Tuesday he is ready to renew attacks against Iran if progress is not made at any talks, with the US military “raring to go”. Continue reading...

US president’s hubristic and contradictory social media statements are key stumbling block to ending the warDonald Trump’s blend of threats and hubristic commentary, often casually dismissive of Iran, has, as much as the continuation of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, been the key stumbling block to restarting peace talks between the two countries under Pakistan’s mediation in Islamabad.However much the Iranian foreign ministry insists it would not respond to every social media utterance issued by the US president on Iran, and sometimes there are as many as seven a day, Tehran cannot ignore them all, even if they contradict what the Iranians are being told in private about Trump’s true intentions. Continue reading...

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on whether permanent peace is possible – or whether there will be a new escalation in the conflictGood morning. The Gulf is stuck in limbo between war and peace. Despite a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, both sides have ramped up threats once again. A lasting end to the violence feels possible, but so does a renewed round of fighting – and more death, destruction and economic pain.JD Vance, the US vice-president, is expected to fly to Pakistan today if Iran agrees to further talks on ending the conflict. Tehran has given mixed signals about whether they will attend and, at time of writing, it remainds unclear. Meanwhile, time is ticking away on the current two-week ceasefire, which runs out in less than 48 hours.Iran war | JD Vance was expected to fly to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.UK politics | Keir Starmer has accused Olly Robbins of deliberately and repeatedly obstructing the truth about the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal before a high-jeopardy appearance of the sacked top official before MPs on Tuesday.Health | Changes to microbes that live in the gut can identify people at greater risk of Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms develop, according to work that also raises hopes for new therapies.Economy | A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran.Technology | Apple announced on Monday that it had named a replacement for Tim Cook as CEO after nearly 15 years, with head of hardware engineering John Ternus succeeding him on 1 September. Cook will stay at the company in the role of executive chair. Continue reading...

• The US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel amid escalating tensions in the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran, which began with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting Iranian leadership and nuclear sites. • President Trump confirmed the action, occurring as Iran's retaliatory strikes hit Israel and US bases, compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil supplies. • Oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting IEA nations to release strategic reserves; the incident dims prospects for peace talks and amplifies economic fallout worldwide.

FTSE 100 slides and UK gas prices up amid fears strait of Hormuz will be closed for extended periodBusiness live – latest updatesOil prices rose sharply and European stock markets fell on Monday, after the US seizure of an Iranian vessel hit hopes for a peace deal.Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by as much as 5% on Monday to $95.50 (£70.75) a barrel. Continue reading...

• President Trump expressed optimism that an Iran peace deal is 'looking very good,' signaling potential near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict that has destabilized financial markets. • Investors are actively weighing the likelihood and terms of a potential Iran truce as a key variable influencing near-term market direction and energy price trajectories. • Geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices and equity valuations could face significant repricing if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is formally announced.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to close above 7,000 points for the first time, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.6% to a record high, driven by gains in technology and software stocks and optimism over potential U.S.-Iran peace talks. • Bank of America posted a 17% rise in quarterly profit from strong trading and investment banking fee rebounds, while Morgan Stanley reported a near 30% profit jump supported by record equities trading revenue and improved dealmaking activity. • Stock index futures edged higher after-hours, with S&P 500 Futures up 0.2% to 7,070.75 points and Nasdaq 100 Futures rising 0.3% to 26,440.75 points, reflecting continued market momentum.

A Pakistani official said he expected talks to restart soon, but it may take longer than Trump suggested. Plus: how to stop catastrophizing? Here’s what experts sayGood morning.Donald Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days.Have Israel and Lebanon had talks yet? Yes. The two held negotiations about their conflict in Washington – their first direct talks in over three decades. The US state department praised the two sides for having “productive discussions” but Hezbollah has said it will not abide by any agreements made by Israeli and Lebanese government negotiators in Washington.For the latest updates, follow our liveblog. Continue reading...

US president says negotiations could restart in Islamabad under ‘fantastic’ Pakistani army chief Asim Munir• Middle East crisis – live updatesDonald Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan’s army chief as mediator.The US president was speaking on Tuesday to a New York Post reporter who had gone to Islamabad for the first round of ceasefire talks over the weekend. After an interview discussing prospects for negotiations, the reporter said the president called her back “with an update”. Continue reading...

• Peace talks between the US, Israel, and Iran held in Islamabad have broken down, prompting the Trump administration to announce a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. • The breakdown in diplomatic negotiations marks an escalation in US-Iran tensions and threatens to further disrupt global energy supplies already stressed by Middle East instability. • The blockade decision signals a shift from diplomatic engagement to military enforcement, with potential consequences for international shipping and energy markets worldwide.

Tehran said the move would be a breach of the ceasefire. Plus, Viktor Orbán ousted in Hungarian election in blow to global far rightGood morning.Donald Trump has said the US will begin blockading the strait of Hormuz in an attempt to wrest control of the vital waterway from Iran after peace negotiations between the countries failed.When would the blockade start? US Central Command (Centcom) announced the blockade would begin on Monday at 10am ET. Experts have said it could risk further increasing oil prices.Which vessels will the blockade affect? Centcom said it would be confined to ships transiting through Iranian ports – and that it would permit passage of ships headed to ports belonging to the US’s Gulf allies.How could a blockade help the US reopen the strait? The strategy appears to be that the US hopes to eliminates Tehran’s greatest point of leverage – its chokehold of the strait – by stopping Iranian oil exports. Tehran has indicated that it would like to keep control of the strait after the war has ended, and to charge fees to ships. Continue reading...

Australian prime minister says it’s ‘disappointing’ that there was no resolution on freedom of movement during weekend’s talksFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAnthony Albanese says peace negotiations to end the growing Middle East war should resume quickly, as Australia called for the full reopening of the strait of Hormuz and free navigation for all countries.Hours after the US president, Donald Trump, said he would institute an American blockade of the strategic waterway from Tuesday morning, Australian time, Albanese urged Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations in Pakistan. Continue reading...

Iran warns move would breach ceasefire as US president also repeats threats to strike critical infrastructureDonald Trump has said the US will begin blockading the strait of Hormuz in an attempt to take control of the strategic waterway from Iran in the aftermath of failed peace negotiations between the countries in Pakistan.The US president also threatened to bomb Iran’s water treatment facilities as well as its power plants and bridges, repeating an earlier threat, if Tehran did not agree to abandon its nuclear weapons programme – the key sticking point between the two sides. Continue reading...

President has long been a fan of mixed martial artsIvanka and Donald Trump Jr also at eventDonald Trump and US secretary of state Marco Rubio attended a UFC event in Miami night on Saturday as peace talks with Iran failed on the other side of the world.Trump entered the Kaseya Center shortly after 9pm alongside several members of his family and UFC chief Dana White, who has been a supporter of the president since his first term. Seated nearby was Rubio as well as US ambassador to India Sergio Gor, the rapper Vanilla Ice and former FBI deputy director Dan Bongino. Continue reading...

Australia’s foreign affairs minister says priority ‘must be to continue the ceasefire and return to negotiations’Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAustralia’s foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, has urged the US and Iran to continue the ceasefire and return to negotiations quickly, after peace talks failed to secure a deal or the re-opening of the strait of Hormuz.Historic face-to-face meetings in Pakistan – marking the highest-level of direct engagement between Washington and Tehran in decades – seemingly broke down after a marathon 21-hour first day of talks. Continue reading...

US and Iranian media report peace talks have begun in Islamabad, while Netanyahu says Israel remains committed to fighting IranUS and Iran hold talks in Islamabad as Pakistan seeks to broker peace dealUS officials claim Iran unable to find mines it laid in strait of HormuzThe UK will host a strait of Hormuz meeting next week, bringing together multiple countries aiming to restore free movement of ships through the strait, which has been blockaded by Iran since the beginning of the war and inflicted heavy damage on the global economy.A British official told AP that the meeting will oppose the idea of tolls being charged for passage through the waterway, as proposed by Iran as part of ceasefire negotiations. Continue reading...

JD Vance leads American delegation while Iran’s negotiators headed up by Iran’s parliamentary speakerPeace talks between Iran and the US began in Islamabad this afternoon, with senior negotiators from both countries meeting face to face at the highest level for the first time since 1979, in the presence of mediators from Pakistan.Pakistani state TV said US and Iranian officials were “sitting directly at the same table” – which was later confirmed by the White House – and discussions were beginning in a positive atmosphere, despite fighting ongoing in Lebanon. Continue reading...

Vice-president’s war doubts and his boss’s desperation to reopen Red Sea look like a weak deck against bolstered opponentsAs JD Vance arrives in Islamabad to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, his first high-profile assignment of the war looks to be a poisoned chalice.Vance, a vocal opponent of US wars in the Middle East gone quiet since the beginning of the current military campaign, will now face off with Iranian negotiators who feel emboldened by their new control of the Hormuz strait and their resilience in the face of the largest US-Israeli onslaught in history. Vance’s presence at the talks as vice-president will make it the highest-level meeting since the Iranian revolution of 1979. Continue reading...

• Pakistan has positioned itself as a primary mediator between the United States and Iran following the recent Middle East war, leading efforts to end hostilities after Trump's threats prompted a White House reversal. • Peace talks are set to begin in Pakistan on April 10, welcomed by India, as the two-week ceasefire takes hold amid reshaping West Asian strategic landscape. • China supports Pakistan's role, having jointly submitted a five-point truce plan with Islamabad to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before escalation.

Kristalina Georgieva says even ‘most hopeful scenario’ will lead to growth downgrade and cause permanent hit to living standardsBusiness live – latest updatesThe head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the Iran war will permanently scar the global economy even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached.In a speech delivered as the ceasefire in the conflict threatens to unravel, Kristalina Georgieva said the “scarring effects” caused by the war to date would mean slower global growth this year than first anticipated. Continue reading...

• Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt met in Pakistan on Sunday to establish a framework for direct US-Iran negotiations, with foreign ministers expected to reconvene Monday to discuss peace terms. • Iran's parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf warned that Iranian forces are "waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire," while dismissing the US 15-point action list as negotiating under pressure. • The US has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East including 2,500 Marines aboard USS Tripoli and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, signaling preparations for potential ground operations despite diplomatic efforts.

Tehran skeptical of president’s offer – and troop deployments for potential ground operations suggest claim of imminent end to war not credibleSomewhere between the strait of Hormuz and the screens of Bloomberg terminals around the world, the standard laws of cause and effect appear to have been suspended for Donald Trump’s war in Iran.Trump this week soft-launched his latest Iran peace talks – which he has said must be accepted or “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out” – with few details or proof that anyone in the Iranian regime was willing to listen to him. The ultimatum was described as “maximalist” by Iran and quickly derided as a non-starter by analysts and former government officials. Continue reading...

Markets in Asia and Europe move higher, while crude hovers at about $100 a barrel amid cautious optimismBusiness live – latest updatesThe price of oil has dipped and Asian stock markets moved higher after reports that Donald Trump has sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran, amid hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East.Oil prices had fallen by 4% in the early hours of Wednesday, with brent crude futures sinking below $100 a barrel and even moving as low as $97.57 as trading was influenced by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. Continue reading...