Rate Cut

• The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 16 policy meeting, revealing internal division over the appropriate timeline for interest rate cuts, with several governors questioning whether inflation has declined sufficiently to warrant near-term reductions. • Hawks on the committee expressed concern that premature rate cuts could reignite price pressures, while doves argued that pausing at 5.5% risks unnecessarily constraining growth and employment, setting the stage for a contentious May 2 vote. • Market reactions to the minutes were mixed, with bond futures pricing in only a 28% probability of a rate cut by July 2026, down from 35% before the release, while equity index futures declined 0.6% on expectation of extended higher rates.

• President Trump issued an Executive Order directing the Department of Health and Human Services to expedite access to treatments for patients with serious mental illness. • The FDA is accelerating its review process for mental health therapies in response to the directive. • This policy shift aims to reduce barriers to treatment approval and expand therapeutic options for affected patients.

Former Wall Street banker faces questions at confirmation hearing – but his biggest backer is also his biggest liabilityOn the face of it, Kevin Warsh looks like an ideal candidate to chair the Federal Reserve, the world’s most important central bank. The 56-year-old Ivy League economist, former Wall Street banker and presidential adviser ticks all the boxes. Unfortunately for Warsh, as he faces what could be a fraught nomination hearing, his biggest backer is also his biggest liability.In his second term, Donald Trump has attacked the Fed in a manner both unprecedented and unseemly. He has called current chair Jerome Powell – whom he also appointed – a “jerk”, “a stubborn MORON”, and repeatedly threatened to fire him. Continue reading...

• President Trump signed an executive order directing federal regulators to fast-track FDA review of psychedelic drugs including psilocybin and ibogaine for treating depression, anxiety, and PTSD. • The order allocates $50 million in federal funds to states implementing or developing psychedelic treatment programs as part of a federal-state partnership initiative. • Trump highlighted that over 14 million American adults have serious mental illness, with approximately 8 million on prescription medication, framing psychedelics as addressing a national mental health crisis including suicide prevention.

• President issues executive order on April 18, 2026, to speed medical treatments for serious mental illness using psychedelic drugs including ibogaine compounds. • Order highlights clinical studies showing potential for patients with persistent conditions unresponsive to standard therapies. • Directs federal agencies to prioritize research, approvals, and access to innovative mental health interventions nationwide.

Former US Fed chair says lowering rates to reduce debt service cost can lead to inflation getting out of controlBusiness live – latest updatesThe former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has attacked Donald Trump’s push for lower interest rates, comparing it to the actions of a “banana republic”.The US president has repeatedly urged the central bank to slash interest rates, in the hope of cutting the government’s borrowing costs on its $39tn (£29tn) debt. Continue reading...

• Federal Reserve policymakers indicated Wednesday they are unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term, citing persistent inflation pressures that exceed the central bank's 2% target. • Multiple Fed officials, including those from major regional banks, cited "hotter-than-expected" March inflation readings as justification for holding rates steady through at least mid-2026. • Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted significantly, with futures traders now pricing in the first possible cut in September 2026 rather than June, reflecting the hawkish pivot.

• The Federal Open Market Committee met on March 17–18, 2026, noting uncertainty in the economic outlook with options markets pricing a 30% probability of rate hikes early next year. • Broad equity indexes declined sharply while S&P 500 one-month volatility rose, driven by investor concerns over Middle East developments weakening confidence. • Financing conditions stayed restrictive for households, small businesses, and commercial real estate due to high costs and tight underwriting, though corporate debt spreads remained narrow.

• The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board concluded its 2026 Article IV Consultation on April 2, stating there is "little room to cut interest rates in 2026" despite moderating inflation expectations. • The IMF projects U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.4% in 2026, up from 2.0% in 2025, while the federal funds rate is forecast to decline only from 3.6% to 3.4% — representing barely a single rate cut for the entire year. • Inflation is on track to hit the 2% target by early 2027, but the IMF warns that growth will peak this year and slowly decay toward 1.8%, while U.S. debt continues climbing annually.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• The Federal Reserve indicated openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at its May meeting after the March Consumer Price Index came in at 2.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest inflation reading in two years and easing pressure on monetary policy. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in prepared remarks that the central bank will "monitor incoming data carefully" and emphasized the bank's commitment to price stability while supporting employment. • Market expectations for rate relief have strengthened, with futures pricing in approximately 65% probability of a May cut, signaling investor confidence that the inflation trajectory has stabilized sufficiently for policy accommodation.

Injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an inflated economy may change things for the Reserve Bank board at its next meetingFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastEconomists will say that what millions of motorists gain in cheaper fuel through the prime minister’s three-month fuel excise cut, they will lose in more expensive mortgages.It may be good politics, but injecting $1.5bn via petrol subsidies into an economy that is already struggling with a resurgent inflationary problem is not going to make the Reserve Bank of Australia’s job any easier. Continue reading...

• Meta is reducing its workforce while simultaneously increasing investment in artificial intelligence capabilities and research. • The company is shifting resources to prioritize AI development over other business areas, signaling a strategic pivot in corporate priorities. • This move reflects broader industry trends where major tech companies are reallocating capital toward AI infrastructure and models despite economic pressures.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.

US Treasury yields increased during the week of March 13, 2026, after oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, prompting investors to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into later 2026. Markets now price in only one rate cut for the year, down from prior forecasts, as February CPI data appears outdated amid March's energy inflation spike. The bond market showed unhinged behavior amid fears of higher headline inflation, slower growth, and stagflation risks from sustained high oil prices. A prolonged oil elevation could pair high inflation with unemployment rises, complicating Fed policy.

Markets fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate cut for 2026 on March 13, as economic steam loss combined with oil-driven inflation pressures. Traders adjusted expectations following Treasury volatility spikes and tariff news. This pricing reflects bets on policy easing despite persistent price risks. Upcoming data will test if slowdown warrants aggressive cuts.