Risks

Exclusive: Brussels seeks to stall awarding of contract to firm fronted by US president’s lawyer in letter seen by GuardianThe EU risks a confrontation with Donald Trump after it sought to stall the awarding of a lucrative Balkans pipeline contract to a company fronted by his personal lawyer, documents seen by the Guardian show.Brussels has clashed with Trump over trade, Ukraine and military spending, but the intervention in the Southern Interconnection pipeline project appears to mark the first time it has challenged a commercial venture by those close to the president. Continue reading...

• Cowbell Cyber Inc. launched Prime One, a new U.S. cyber insurance product for organizations with $250 million to $1 billion in annual revenue. • The policy provides up to $10 million in coverage limits and includes affirmative protection for AI-related incidents and quantum computing risks. • Prime One addresses unauthorized use or access to AI systems in business operations, targeting advanced digital risk profiles.

Conflict is pushing up price of energy and food, fuelling higher borrowing costs and hitting growth, report saysIran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warnsBusiness live – latest updatesThe Iran war risks triggering a rise in global debt levels, forcing governments to choose between cushioning a cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Against a volatile backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Washington-based fund said the war could add to the already strained position of government finances throughout the world. Continue reading...

Oil-driven inflation is big challenge to world economy, lifting inflation and depressing growth, says bank’s chairBusiness live – latest updatesHSBC bosses have said the Iran war is already hitting global economic confidence, as a string of business leaders warned over the impact of the conflict.Georges Elhedery, the Lebanon-born chief executive of the bank, told Bloomberg Television at a HSBC conference in Hong Kong: “We’re saddened and concerned with what’s happening in the Middle East, and we’re concerned not just with what’s happening but also with how long this will take. Continue reading...

Orbán is out in Hungary and talks have failed to end the war in Iran – ill-fated roadtrip has been setback for Maga aimsShortly before JD Vance’s ill-fated week crisscrossing the world, Donald Trump asked him during a private Easter brunch about how the Iran negotiations were shaping up. “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance,” Trump said to laughs in the room. “If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.”The joke at Vance’s expense contained an unfortunate nugget of truth: this is not an administration that rewards failure. Continue reading...

• Anthropic postponed releasing Claude Mythos, an AI excelling at coding and vulnerability scanning, following high-level meetings with US financial regulators. • Mythos demonstrated ability to chain unknown security flaws in software at unprecedented speed, sparking 'agent-to-agent war' concerns in cyberspace. • Partners like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, CrowdStrike, and JPMorgan Chase received restricted previews under Project Glasswing.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell convened Wall Street leaders on April 7 to warn about Anthropic's new Mythos AI model, which can identify software vulnerabilities that have evaded decades of human review and millions of automated security tests. • Mythos is being released only to carefully selected partners for defensive security work, as Anthropic fears the tool could provide ransomware gangs and hostile governments with powerful weapons to steal data or disrupt critical infrastructure. • The model represents a significant leap in AI cybersecurity capabilities, with the potential to both protect systems through accelerated penetration testing and pose risks if misused by malicious actors.

The restructuring will close all regional offices, which manages 193m acres of land, roughly the size of TexasSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxUS public lands will “pay the price” of a drive by Donald Trump’s officials to restructure the agency that oversees them, union leaders have warned, accusing the administration of forcing workers to decide whether to relocate or resign.All regional offices of the US Forest Service, which manages 78m hectares (193m acres) of land – roughly the size of Texas – are set to close as part of an overhaul launched by the Trump administration. The service has already shed hundreds of staff members since Trump returned to power last year. Continue reading...

Reports say Fed chair Jerome Powell among attenders at meeting in Washington The US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, summoned major American bank chiefs to a meeting in Washington this week amid concerns over the cyber risks posed by Anthropic’s latest AI model, according to reports.Bosses including the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, were said to have gathered at the Treasury headquarters for the meeting after the release of the Claude Mythos AI model that Anthropic says poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks. Continue reading...

High levels of borrowing and rapid expansion among dangers identified by Higher Education Policy InstituteMany English universities are taking excessive financial risks that threaten not only their own survival but that of others in the sector, a thinktank has warned.High levels of borrowing at some institutions and rapid expansion of student numbers are among the dangers identified in a report by the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi). Continue reading...

Conservationists say move could push species closer to extinction and clearer environmental rules are needed insteadFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastConservationists and scientists have warned a mining lobby proposal to use artificial intelligence to speed up national environmental approvals could generate “Robodebt-style” failures, putting threatened species at further risk.The Minerals Council of Australia has asked the government to spend $13m to trial the use of AI to help companies prepare applications and help the federal government make decisions. Continue reading...

• At RSAC 2026 on April 3, experts detailed rising AI-powered autonomous cyber threats and agentic defenses. • Sessions emphasized quantum computing risks to encryption, urging enterprise preparedness. • Findings stress need for adaptive strategies against evolving AI attack vectors.

• A benchmark report surveying over 200 CISOs ranks AI as the top cybersecurity concern at 71%. • Security budgets in retail and hospitality sectors increased modestly from 0.57% to 0.75% of revenue. • AI-driven threats are ushering a new era of risk, prompting heightened investment in defenses.

Human rights group says US is facing an ‘emergency’ICE director said agency will play ‘key part’ at tournamentAmnesty International has warned that the World Cup, spread across three North American countries, risks becoming a “stage for repression”. The human rights organisation published a report on Monday – “Humanity Must Win” – calling on Fifa and the host countries, the US, Canada and Mexico, to take urgent action to protect fans, players and other communities.Fifa has promised a tournament where everyone “feels safe, included and free to exercise their rights”. But Amnesty said that pledge sat in “stark contrast” to conditions in all three host nations, especially the US, which hosts three-quarters of the 104 matches. Continue reading...

War continues to escalate with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis confirming a second wave of attacks on Israel since they joined the war on SaturdayRead the full reportHello and welcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East as the war enters its second month.The war only continues to escalate as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis confirmed a second wave of attacks on Israel since joining the conflict on Saturday. They have vowed to continue strikes in the coming days, posing a threat not just to worsening regional security but also global trade.In a televised speech, Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said the Iran-backed group had launched a “barrage of cruise missiles and drones” in a second attack on Israel, targeting key military sites. He vowed the Houthis would continue military operations in the coming days until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.The entry of the Houthis, poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a second major choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East. With Iran’s near total closure of the strait of Hormuz, a shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy, and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict.The Pentagon is preparing plans for weeks of ground operations in Iran – potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the strait of Hormuz – though President Donald Trump has not yet approved any deployment, the Washington Post is reporting. Any ground operation would stop short of a full-scale invasion, instead involving raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry troops, the Post said, citing unnamed officials.Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has told one of the US’s biggest annual gatherings of conservatives that he is ready to lead a new Iranian government and would call on the country’s citizens to rise up when the “right moment arrives”, AP reports. Pahlavi is the son of the shah, a monarch deposed in 1979 when the Islamic theocracy came to power.Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had deliberately targeted two Iranian universities. “If the US government wants its universities in the region to be free from retaliation... it must condemn the bombing of the universities in an official statement by 12 noon on Monday, March 30, Tehran time,” said the statement published by Iranian media.Pakistan has said it would host a meeting of Middle Eastern powers on Monday in an effort to find a regional approach to ending the conflict. But the talks, which bring together the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, did not appear to include any of the warring parties, casting further doubt on persistent US claims of diplomatic progress.Israeli attacks killed three journalists in a targeted strike on their car in southern Lebanon, which the Lebanese president condemned as a “blatant war crime”. The strike killed Ali Shoeib, from Hezbollah-owned al-Manar TV, Fatima Ftouni and her brother and cameraman Mohammed Ftouni from pro-Hezbollah outlet al-Mayadeen.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organisation, called for an end to attacks on medical staff after nine paramedics were ​killed in southern Lebanon on Saturday.The Israeli military bombarded Tehran with a “wide-scale wave of strikes”, damaging residential areas, civilian infrastructure, and research and educational buildings. The IDF also said it had hit Iran’s headquarters for naval weaponry.Iran has allowed 20 oil tankers from Pakistan to pass through the strait of Hormuz. Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s deputy prime minister, said two ships would cross per day. The country has been playing a key mediatory role in the conflict. Continue reading...

• The U.S. economy faces 'real risk' of recession following four weeks of war in Iran, with major indexes like S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq down sharply and energy stocks up 25%. • Inflation pressures have driven 30-year fixed mortgage rates to 6.5%, up 0.5 points, while businesses cannot expect Federal Reserve rate cuts soon. • Stock portfolios and retirement accounts have suffered ugly losses, compounded by higher gas prices and persistent high interest rates.

Researchers believe behavioral gap, which may hold true across species, is probably product of less fear of harassment in cities Anyone who has lived long enough in a city can tell you – with time, you just stop noticing strange new things. A unicycling bagpiper. A person changing clothes on the subway. Murals that transform streets into tart.Coyotes in cities seem to be bolder as well and less afraid of new experiences. That’s according to a new study that researchers conducted at more than a dozen sites across the US, comparing urban and rural coyotes’ reaction to new stimuli. Continue reading...

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

Fintech company’s profits leap to £1.7bn as it gears up for US push after getting UK banking licence this month Business live – latest updatesThe UK banking app Revolut has said it could face a backlash over its support for energy-intensive sectors such as crypto and AI, as it posted a 57% increase in annual profits.The fintech, which can now launch as a fully fledged UK bank after a five-year wait for regulatory approval, warned in its 2025 results that such activities posed a “reputational risk”. Continue reading...

• Rising yields across US and international bond markets reflect growing inflation expectations stemming from the energy shock caused by the Iran-US conflict, with 10-year gilts rising 14 basis points. • Market participants are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year as inflation anchoring concerns mount amid geopolitical disruptions to energy supplies. • The bond market deterioration follows Friday's significant equity selloff and signals potential monetary policy tightening ahead, with the Fed focused on ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored despite external supply shocks.

CEO of asset manager says only a few firms and investors may reap rewards from growth in the technologyThe boom in artificial intelligence risks widening inequality, with only a handful of companies and investors likely to reap its financial rewards, the BlackRock chief executive, Larry Fink, has warned.The boss of the $14tn (£10.4tn) asset manager used his annual letter to investors on Monday to highlight potential hazards around the exponential growth in AI, which has attracted rapid investment and become “central to strategic competition” between global powers such as the US and China. Continue reading...

• All major central banks adopted hawkish stances last week as energy market disruptions reignited inflation concerns, prompting global reassessment of monetary policy outlooks and eliminating prior rate-cut expectations. • U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets over the next 12 months have been priced out entirely, while most other advanced economies have begun pricing in additional rate hikes; the December Monetary Policy Report that implied a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by Q4 2026 is now obsolete. • The combination of persistent energy price shocks and hardening central bank stances creates a "brutal combo for risk assets," with the dollar index remaining anchored in the 96.00-100.00 range as USD risks remain skewed to the upside during periods of financial market stress.

• The House Subcommittee on Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection held a hearing last week assessing national security threats from PRC-linked AI, robotics, and autonomous sensing technologies entering US markets. • Witnesses highlighted companies like DeepSeek and Unitree Robotics, urging investments in US alternatives to protect critical infrastructure and supply chains. • Subcommittee Chair emphasized: 'Invest in trusted American alternatives, strengthen cybersecurity practices, and prevent federal funds from supporting platforms that put American data at risk.'

• JPMorgan revised its 2026 S&P 500 year-end price target down to 7,200 from 7,500, citing rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions as key headwinds to earnings. • The bank warned the index could slide to as low as 6,000 in the near term if current pressures intensify, with 6,000 to 6,200 identified as potential support levels if recession risks escalate. • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, down 1.51%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss and lowest level in six months amid AI monetization doubts and Fed rate-cut expectations reversing.

• AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton warns Big Tech prioritizes quick profits and narrow research goals like image recognition over long-term superintelligence implications. • Hinton advocates AI safety measures like video/image provenance to combat deepfakes, noting each AI risk requires distinct solutions amid cybersecurity concerns. • He proposes modeling superintelligent AI as protective 'mothers' to humans as 'babies,' urging regulation beyond current industry practices.

In letter to justice secretary, groups say judge-led decisions more likely to be influenced by bias than those made by 12 random people Thirty organisations representing victims of violence against women and girls (VAWG) have written to the justice secretary, David Lammy, urging him to drop plans to significantly reduce the number of jury trials.The groups said that the proposals, which will affect court cases in England and Wales, will deepen mistrust in the justice system among victims and distract from measures designed to reduce offending. Continue reading...

• The House passed DHS funding bill H.R. 7147 earlier in 2026 to secure operations, but Senate disagreements over spending have delayed votes as of March 2026. • Delays threaten USCIS offices in Florida and nationwide, slowing visa applications, renewals, and Dreamer status adjustments. • Without approval, DHS faces potential shutdown, limiting immigration processing and creating uncertainty for immigrants.

Crude oil benchmarks hover near $100 per barrel, up 70% since early January, with forecasts of $150 highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. U.S. fuel prices have risen nearly 35% from January lows, though domestic supplies prevent shortages. Energy producers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron hit record highs, while the Dow Jones fell 6% in a month amid stagflation concerns. Prolonged conflict could reverse Fed rate cuts and pressure consumer sectors further.