Inflation

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• The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 16 policy meeting, revealing internal division over the appropriate timeline for interest rate cuts, with several governors questioning whether inflation has declined sufficiently to warrant near-term reductions. • Hawks on the committee expressed concern that premature rate cuts could reignite price pressures, while doves argued that pausing at 5.5% risks unnecessarily constraining growth and employment, setting the stage for a contentious May 2 vote. • Market reactions to the minutes were mixed, with bond futures pricing in only a 28% probability of a rate cut by July 2026, down from 35% before the release, while equity index futures declined 0.6% on expectation of extended higher rates.

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 98.3 in April 2026, down 4.2 points from March, marking the steepest monthly drop since July 2025 as Americans express renewed concern about inflation and job security. • Consumers' expectations for future economic conditions weakened notably, with the forward-looking component falling 6.8 points as respondents cited concerns about rising prices for groceries, gasoline, and housing costs. • The decline suggests potential headwinds for Q2 consumer spending and retail sales, pressuring guidance from discretionary retailers and restaurant operators ahead of earnings season.

Annual March rate adds to pressure on household finances and follows warnings of slowdown to UK economyUK inflation rose by 3.3% in March amid the surge in fuel prices for motorists triggered by the Iran war.Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the consumer prices index increased last month from 3% in February, adding to pressure on household finances already battered by a cost of living crisis. The rise matched City economists’s forecast of an increase to 3.3%. Continue reading...

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined following the latest inflation report on April 10, 2026, easing from recent levels. • Equity futures pointed higher as markets opened, buoyed by the Treasury movement and broader optimism. • This reaction comes amid mixed Wall Street close and anticipation of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, influencing bond and stock positioning.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• Federal Reserve policymakers indicated Wednesday they are unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term, citing persistent inflation pressures that exceed the central bank's 2% target. • Multiple Fed officials, including those from major regional banks, cited "hotter-than-expected" March inflation readings as justification for holding rates steady through at least mid-2026. • Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted significantly, with futures traders now pricing in the first possible cut in September 2026 rather than June, reflecting the hawkish pivot.

Prices were up 3.3% over the year, adding to the unpredictability that first came with Trump tariffsSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxUS inflation soared in March amid the US-Israel war with Iran, with prices up 0.9% compared to last month and 3.3% over the year, according to new data released Friday.The spike in the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of a basket of goods and services, is the largest in nearly two years and the first official measure of how the conflict has impacted US consumer prices, particularly as Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas would typically pass through. Continue reading...

• The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board concluded its 2026 Article IV Consultation on April 2, stating there is "little room to cut interest rates in 2026" despite moderating inflation expectations. • The IMF projects U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.4% in 2026, up from 2.0% in 2025, while the federal funds rate is forecast to decline only from 3.6% to 3.4% — representing barely a single rate cut for the entire year. • Inflation is on track to hit the 2% target by early 2027, but the IMF warns that growth will peak this year and slowly decay toward 1.8%, while U.S. debt continues climbing annually.

Even if cargo route of strait of Hormuz reopens soon, Food and Drink Federation almost triples earlier forecastBusiness live – latest updatesFood inflation could hit 9% in the UK this year, even if the strait of Hormuz opens within the next few weeks, figures suggest, as the war in Iran pushes up energy prices.The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has predicted that prices will rise by “at least” 9% the end of 2026, almost tripling a forecast made before the conflict of 3.2%. Continue reading...

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• The Federal Reserve indicated openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at its May meeting after the March Consumer Price Index came in at 2.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest inflation reading in two years and easing pressure on monetary policy. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in prepared remarks that the central bank will "monitor incoming data carefully" and emphasized the bank's commitment to price stability while supporting employment. • Market expectations for rate relief have strengthened, with futures pricing in approximately 65% probability of a May cut, signaling investor confidence that the inflation trajectory has stabilized sufficiently for policy accommodation.

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

OECD says the Middle East war will test the world’s resilience with Australia expected to suffer from higher rates and inflationGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe world economy is on the brink of a major inflationary spike as soaring fuel prices threaten growth in European and Asian nations, the OECD has warned, and local economists are slashing Australia’s growth prospects for this year and the next amid the ongoing US-Israel attack on Iran.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s latest interim outlook said the US-Israel war on Iran will “test the resilience of the global economy”, and warned of the “significant downside risk” to their forecasts should the oil supply disruptions prove more persistent and push energy prices even higher. Continue reading...

February annual rate in line with analysts’ expectations but outlook has shifted because of effects of conflictThe UK inflation rate was unchanged at 3% in February, before Donald Trump’s Iran war drove up global energy costs, threatening a renewed price jump.Official figures showed the consumer prices index (CPI) remained at 3%, in line with economists’ expectations but still well above the government’s 2% target. Continue reading...

PMI figure reveals impact on economy of rise in oil prices driven by Iran warBusiness live – latest updatesThe UK’s manufacturers have suffered the sharpest one-month acceleration in costs since the aftermath of Black Wednesday in 1992, as conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, new survey evidence shows.The closely watched purchasing managers’ index (PMI) lays bare the impact of the conflict on the UK economy, with growth slowing sharply across manufacturing and services and costs rising. Continue reading...

• Rising yields across US and international bond markets reflect growing inflation expectations stemming from the energy shock caused by the Iran-US conflict, with 10-year gilts rising 14 basis points. • Market participants are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year as inflation anchoring concerns mount amid geopolitical disruptions to energy supplies. • The bond market deterioration follows Friday's significant equity selloff and signals potential monetary policy tightening ahead, with the Fed focused on ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored despite external supply shocks.

• All major central banks adopted hawkish stances last week as energy market disruptions reignited inflation concerns, prompting global reassessment of monetary policy outlooks and eliminating prior rate-cut expectations. • U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets over the next 12 months have been priced out entirely, while most other advanced economies have begun pricing in additional rate hikes; the December Monetary Policy Report that implied a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by Q4 2026 is now obsolete. • The combination of persistent energy price shocks and hardening central bank stances creates a "brutal combo for risk assets," with the dollar index remaining anchored in the 96.00-100.00 range as USD risks remain skewed to the upside during periods of financial market stress.

Decision to hold interest rates is backed by gloomy assessment of economy as Iran war pushes up oil pricesBank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%Business live – latest updatesThe US-Israel attack on Iran has already driven prices higher and not just at the petrol pumps, the Bank of England said on Thursday in a gloomy assessment of the UK’s economic outlook.An inflation rate that was on track to fall from 3% to the Bank’s 2% target in the coming months is now expected to rise to 3.5%. That is one probable impact of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Continue reading...

Decision comes as concerns mount over economic fallout from conflict bringing fresh cost of living shockBusiness live – latest updatesThe Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold amid growing fears over an inflation shock triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran.As households brace for a rise in living costs, the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority to keep its key base rate at the current level of 3.75%. Continue reading...

Treasurer plans ‘ambitious’ changes to target intergenerational inequity. Follow today’s news liveGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastGood morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it will be Nick Visser with the main action.Jim Chalmers will today promise to deliver a trio of “ambitious reform packages” in the May budget that will rebuild fiscal buffers, make the tax system fairer and lift the nation’s lagging productivity performance. The treasurer will be speaking at an event in Melbourne at 12.30pm. More coming up. Continue reading...

Jerome Powell resists Trump pressure as policymakers weigh energy shock against a weakening US jobs marketSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxThe US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the second time this year, a widely expected move amid turmoil in the Middle East and rising energy prices.Fed officials faced a confluence of issues to consider in their meeting this week: soaring oil and gas prices, fluctuating inflation that still remains above the Fed’s target of 2% and a weakened job market that unexpectedly saw 92,000 losses last month. Continue reading...

• Technology stocks surged on March 16 as inflation fears subsided, with the SPDR Select Sector Technology ETF rising nearly 2%, though it remains down year-to-date amid ongoing doubts about AI boom sustainability. • Micron Technology shares rallied after announcing plans to build a second manufacturing site in Taiwan to produce high-demand AI memory products, while Nebius signed a five-year, $27 billion deal with Meta to supply AI infrastructure capacity. • Cybersecurity experts warn that data breaches and hacking tactics have become weapons of war alongside traditional military hardware, raising risks for civilian companies caught in cross-fire.

• The Federal Reserve opened a two-day monetary policy meeting this week with a rate decision expected Wednesday, as officials evaluate the impact of surging oil prices and Middle East conflict on inflation trajectories. • Uncertainty around geopolitical fallout is deepening divisions within the central bank over the interest rate path forward; officials are widely expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday despite elevated crude prices. • Rising oil and gasoline prices are weighing on earnings estimates and consumer spending forecasts, creating additional complexity for Fed policymakers balancing inflation and growth concerns.

Hummus and pet grooming also join list of goods and services used to help judge the impact of rising prices Business live – latest updatesThe UK’s increasing sobriety will be recognised from next month in the basket of goods used to calculate inflation after alcohol-free beer was added to a list by the Office for National Statistics totalling 760 items.Hummus and pet grooming were also included in the list of goods and services used to help judge the impact of rising prices on the cost of living. Continue reading...

Economists predict RBA will raise interest rates this week and in May – days before treasurer unveils budgetFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastHouseholds can expect significant additional cost-of-living pressures because of the war in the Middle East, with Jim Chalmers confirming that the government expects inflation to rise beyond 4.5% in Australia.But the treasurer said he did not expect the economy to fall into recession because of the war sparked by US and Israeli bombings in Iran. Continue reading...

Crude oil benchmarks hover near $100 per barrel, up 70% since early January, with forecasts of $150 highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. U.S. fuel prices have risen nearly 35% from January lows, though domestic supplies prevent shortages. Energy producers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron hit record highs, while the Dow Jones fell 6% in a month amid stagflation concerns. Prolonged conflict could reverse Fed rate cuts and pressure consumer sectors further.

The U.S. PCE inflation index reached 3.1% in February 2026 data released March 13, exceeding forecasts and fueling concerns over persistent price pressures. This reading, alongside Brent oil hitting $100, pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts into late 2026. Economists note the figure complicates the Fed's dual mandate amid slowing GDP growth. Markets now price in steady rates through mid-year.