Signals

• President Trump expressed optimism that an Iran peace deal is 'looking very good,' signaling potential near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict that has destabilized financial markets. • Investors are actively weighing the likelihood and terms of a potential Iran truce as a key variable influencing near-term market direction and energy price trajectories. • Geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices and equity valuations could face significant repricing if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is formally announced.

• A paralyzed man successfully controlled a robotic arm by using a neural interface device that relays signals from his brain to a computer, enabling him to grasp, move, and drop objects through thought alone. • The breakthrough demonstrates the practical application of brain-computer interface technology, allowing the patient to perform complex motor tasks that were previously impossible due to paralysis. • This advancement represents a significant milestone in neurotechnology and rehabilitation, offering hope for individuals with paralysis by restoring functional control of external robotic limbs through neural signals.

• US and Israeli forces conducted strikes Tuesday on major Iranian steel facilities, including the Mobarakeh Steel Company in Isfahan and the Khuzestan Steel Company, marking continued escalation of military operations. • President Donald Trump stated American forces will withdraw from Iran within "two to three weeks," signaling a potential end to the ongoing military campaign that began last month. • Iran reported at least 249 women and 216 children killed in US-Israeli attacks since the war's start, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected ceasefire proposals and demanded a complete end to hostilities.

Chancellor says the government is looking at ways they can support people based on household income Good morning. Keir Starmer is giving a press conference this morning where, according to No 10, he will discuss the Iran war, and how the government is supporting people at home. Now we are in April, the new financial year is starting, and the government is highlighting measures it has introduced that will help people with the cost of living. The Conservatives have an alternative list, and they are claiming this morning that “Keir Starmer and his chancellor have piled on extra costs leaving families almost £1,000 worse off this year”.The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been doing her own media too. She is on the Jeremy Vine show later, but she has already given an interview to BBC Breakfast in which she gave a marginally clearer idea of what she is planning to do to help people with energy bills than she did when she made a statement to MPs last week.From July to September, gas usage, especially by families and pensioners, is the lowest of any months of the year because it is the summer months …It will be really from the autumn onwards that people’s gas usage starts increasing. So at the moment we are working on a range of contingencies. And we are looking at more targeted measures. We are looking at ways we can support people based on their household income.I want to learn the lessons of the past because when Russia invaded Ukraine, the richest, the best-off third of households got more than a third of the support. That makes no sense at all. Continue reading...

• Equity markets reacted positively after Iranian state media indicated willingness to end the conflict with the US, contingent on certain conditions, as reported in Bloomberg coverage. • President Trump described potential US exit from Iran as 'very soon,' predicting sharp drops in gasoline prices and improved safety from neutralized nuclear threats. • The month-long war has spiked fuel costs, affecting grocery prices as noted by industry figures like Stew Leonard Jr.

• The S&P 500 rose over 1.5% and Nasdaq climbed nearly 2% Monday after the White House signaled it may abandon America's role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump telling allies on Truth Social to "build up some delayed courage" and secure the strait themselves. • Trump wrote on social media: "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us," signaling a potential shift toward military disengagement despite ongoing operations. • The mixed messaging coincides with U.S. gas prices crossing $4 per gallon Tuesday—up more than $1 from February 27—marking the first time since 2022's Ukraine crisis energy shock, while Trump's approval rating has dropped to -16.7, a record low for his second term.

• The Federal Reserve indicated openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at its May meeting after the March Consumer Price Index came in at 2.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest inflation reading in two years and easing pressure on monetary policy. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in prepared remarks that the central bank will "monitor incoming data carefully" and emphasized the bank's commitment to price stability while supporting employment. • Market expectations for rate relief have strengthened, with futures pricing in approximately 65% probability of a May cut, signaling investor confidence that the inflation trajectory has stabilized sufficiently for policy accommodation.