Asia's industrial supercycle is outpacing the West Asia oil shock: Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley - The Economic Times

• The Indian stock market experienced a sharp recovery on Wednesday afternoon following a significant crash earlier in the trading session. • Investor sentiment was boosted by media reports suggesting the government plans to reduce taxes and remove ownership caps on certain bonds.

• India's latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data indicates that the nation's industrial fundamentals have remained relatively resilient. • The government has announced plans to transition toward a chain-linked framework for calculating the index.

• India has launched a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) series to provide more accurate data on an economy now driven by renewables, infrastructure, and manufacturing. • The update addresses gaps in industrial tracking, reflecting the modern shift in how the country produces goods and manages resources.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) is undergoing a significant leadership transition, replacing key top officials during a period of economic instability. • This reshuffle occurs as the bank attempts to balance fragile economic growth and persistent inflation risks against rising political tensions across Europe.

• The OECD has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is damaging worldwide economic prospects. • A more severe economic shock is predicted if an effective ceasefire is not reached before 2027, though some impacts may be offset by tighter fiscal policies and the end of the NextGenerationEU recovery spending.

• The OECD has warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could significantly slow global economic growth and increase uncertainty. • Key risks include the potential for a global recession and rising inflation if the war continues into next year.

• Mid-sized UK institutional investors are shifting their focus from identifying opportunities in European markets to optimizing the execution of those investments. • The move is driven by a desire for better portfolio diversification, access to specialized investment strategies, and proximity to a wider range of asset classes.

• Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas reported positive economic signals for Thailand, noting that both private sector analysts and government bodies have begun raising their GDP forecasts. • Despite this growth, the Thai economy remains volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions that have triggered an energy crisis and increased operational costs.

• European markets, including the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100, are reacting to geopolitical tensions and potential trade disruptions. • The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed tariffs of up to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the EU, China, and Japan, over alleged failures to ban forced labor goods.

• A European Central Bank (ECB) working paper reveals that European households continue to show a persistent reluctance to invest in equity markets. • Utilizing data from the ECB's consumer expectations survey, the report highlights a gap between the known long-term wealth-building potential of stocks and actual investor behavior.

• BP is considering exiting the North Sea following tax increases on oil and gas levies introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Labour government. • The potential move follows criticism from Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who labeled BP's profits as "morally and economically wrong" after the company reported £2.4bn in earnings between January and March.