‘Big questions’ and few easy answers for Trump’s Fed chair at annual retreat

• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh warned that inflation is not meaningfully slowing and emphasized that the central bank still has significant "work to do." • While the Fed held interest rates steady during its July policy meeting, minutes reveal that several officials favored a hike to bring inflation down to the 2% target.

• Stock futures remained flat and bond prices dropped as investors awaited a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. • Market participants are currently hesitant to increase exposure due to the ambiguity of Warsh's recent comments, leading to conflicting expectations.

• Former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh stated that the central bank still has "work to do" if inflation continues to remain above target levels. • Current market data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate hike by the December 8-9 meeting, with a one-in-three chance of a hike next month.

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, suggesting that policymakers may still "have work to do" if inflation does not return to the 2 per cent target. • The remarks were interpreted by some as the closest Warsh has come to acknowledging that further interest rate hikes could be necessary to curb inflation.

• Kevin Warsh signaled in a closely watched speech that the Federal Reserve may need to raise borrowing costs as early as September. • Warsh praised the overall performance and resilience of the economy, noting its ability to withstand shocks despite potential rate hikes.

• Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned at Jackson Hole that underlying inflation trends remain "stubborn" and "sticky" despite recent favorable PCE and CPI readings. • Warsh argued that recent data does not indicate a meaningful improvement in inflation trends, while Schmid noted the central bank has yet to fully "break through" the current economic resistance.

• Major U.S. stock indices rose today, with the Nasdaq 100 leading gains at +1.03%, followed by the S&P 500 at +0.59% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at +0.33%. • The market rally was primarily driven by strong earnings reports from the technology sector, providing broad support across equity benchmarks.

• Global markets remained in a "wait-and-see" mode today as investors anticipate a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow. • Recent economic indicators included a wider-than-expected US trade deficit for July, weekly jobless claims holding steady at 203k, and a slight increase in German consumer confidence.

• German bond yields increased across both short-dated and longer-dated maturities as investors reacted to persistent inflation risks. • The market shift reflects growing uncertainty regarding the European Central Bank's future interest-rate path and fluctuations in French and Italian bond spreads.

• Federal Reserve official Warsh is scheduled to speak today at the Jackson Hole symposium, though analysts expect a measured tone rather than significant policy surprises. • In currency markets, the GBP/USD pair rose to approximately 1.3600 during Asian trading hours following two consecutive days of losses.

• Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn announced that current restrictions on gold trading are effective and may be tightened further to stabilize the baht. • The current online gold trading limit is set at THB 50 million per person per day, but officials are considering reducing this cap to THB 30 million or less.