Central Banks Shift Hawkish as Energy Shock Pushes Inflation Risks to Forefront

• US equity markets including S&P 500 fell 1.9% last week, breaching the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025 amid geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. • Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.0% and Dow Jones 2.1%, with VIX near 27 and CNN Fear and Greed Index at 15 signaling high investor anxiety. • Persistent inflation data and fading AI optimism drove declines, positioning US Tech 100 below key moving averages with risks of further drops to 23,000.

• President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. "obliteration" of key energy infrastructure, escalating the ongoing conflict into its fourth consecutive week. • U.S. stock index futures fell sharply Sunday evening: S&P 500 futures declined 0.3% to 6,542.25 points, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% to 24,008.0 points, and Dow Jones futures dropped 0.16% to 45,821.0 points, reflecting market anxiety over potential military escalation. • Major indexes have posted cumulative losses of 4-7% over the past 30 days as concerns mount over the long-term economic impact of prolonged conflict, compounded by stronger-than-expected inflation data reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

• The FTSE 100 fell 1.44% on Friday to close at 9,918, down approximately 9% since the Iran conflict began and at its lowest level since December 2025, reflecting broad market weakness across UK equities. • The FTSE 250 mid-cap index declined 1.01% on the day and has dropped 11.3% since the start of the conflict, hitting its lowest level since November 2025, indicating selling pressure across market capitalizations. • Oil prices climbed despite geopolitical uncertainty, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising 2.8% to $98.50, though the Brent-WTI spread has widened sharply, signaling market stress and supply concerns.

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq and Dow Jones are on the brink of correction territory, defined as a 10% decline from recent peaks, with investors growing concerned the Iran conflict may cause lasting market damage beyond typical episodes. • All three major stock indexes closed Friday with their fourth consecutive weekly loss: the Dow fell 2.1%, Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, and the S&P 500 tumbled 1.9%, according to FactSet data. • The "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out), where investors bet Trump will reverse course during market selloffs, is looking increasingly suspect as the conflict deepens, with analysts warning that longer-term resolution becomes harder the deeper the conflict progresses.

• U.S. secondary-level economic statistics including construction indicators and business activity assessments will provide key signals for market sentiment early in the week. • Investors are preparing for a busier trading week with March flash PMI surveys from major economies, inflation data from Japan and UK, and U.S. consumer indicators due for release. • Market focus has shifted from traditional macro releases to monitoring oil prices, bond yields, and geopolitical developments, with these factors now setting the primary tone for equity sector rotations.

• Key stock indexes broke or are testing long-term support levels, with the Dow Jones closing below its 200-day moving average for the third consecutive day. • Market weakness has shifted from selective rotation to broader deterioration, with participation narrowing and leadership concentrating in defensive and commodity-driven sectors. • Technical analysts warn that previous orderly rotation patterns have given way to genuine breakdown, signaling potential for sustained market pressure if support levels fail.

• JPMorgan revised its 2026 S&P 500 year-end price target down to 7,200 from 7,500, citing rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions as key headwinds to earnings. • The bank warned the index could slide to as low as 6,000 in the near term if current pressures intensify, with 6,000 to 6,200 identified as potential support levels if recession risks escalate. • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, down 1.51%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss and lowest level in six months amid AI monetization doubts and Fed rate-cut expectations reversing.

• The S&P 500 dropped approximately 1%, Nasdaq slid 2.3%, and the Dow remained slightly higher on Wednesday as technology led a broad risk-off move triggered by renewed AI disruption fears and weak corporate guidance. • AMD plunged nearly 17% on disappointing outlook, dragging the semiconductor complex lower with Broadcom falling 7%, Micron dropping 11%, Lam Research down 10%, and Applied Materials declining 9%. • Software stocks extended recent declines as investors reassessed competitive risks following new AI product releases, raising concerns that automation could erode pricing power and margins across enterprise, legal, and financial software sectors.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.51% to close at 6,506.48, the Nasdaq dropped 2.01% to 21,647.61, and the Dow declined 0.96% to 45,577.47 on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive weekly loss. • Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, intensifying inflation expectations and prompting investors to reassess Federal Reserve rate-cut bets; rate futures now suggest potential rate increases rather than cuts by 2026. • Major tech stocks suffered significant losses, with Nvidia and Tesla falling over 3%, while Super Micro Computer plunged 33% following smuggling charge reports linked to AI technology exports.

• The S&P 500 declined 0.84% to 6,551.67 in afternoon trading on Friday with 139 equities advancing and 364 declining across the index, indicating broad-based weakness. • Market rotation continued with only the utilities sector trading in positive territory while all other sectors posted losses amid elevated geopolitical tensions and rising borrowing costs. • Market volatility remains high as investors grapple with competing concerns about inflation stemming from the Iran conflict and the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy decisions.

• Super Micro Computer shares plunged 28.2% on Friday after US authorities accused a senior executive and two affiliates of conspiring to smuggle advanced Nvidia-based servers to China. • The alleged scheme targeted the export of high-performance computing equipment to China, triggering immediate sharp market reaction and significant shareholder losses. • The charges represent a significant escalation in enforcement actions against technology companies and executives involved in alleged unauthorized export of advanced semiconductor technology.