Europe Intelligence Brief — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

• The Federal Reserve's second-highest official reduced expectations for an interest rate hike in October on September 30. • Moderna shares fell after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell, citing a potential 60% downside because the current price reflects unrealistic sales for its cancer vaccine.

• The White House is lowering expectations for a quick diplomatic breakthrough with Iran after the U.S. provided feedback on a seven-point proposal. • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi presented the U.S. proposal to President Pezeshkian following a trip to New York that included talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.1312 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level since May 2025. • This current value represents a sharp decline from the peak of 1.2082 recorded in January.

• The BSE Sensex fell 48 points and the NSE Nifty slipped 95 points on Wednesday. • Market declines were driven by sustained foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices.

• KuCoin published its regular summary of the top five cryptocurrency price gainers for September 30, 2026. • The report identified STAY, NAKA, SOON, RMV, and POND as the tokens with the largest percentage gains over the preceding 24 hours.

• Thousands of Bangkok residents moved into emergency shelters on Sunday after days of heavy rain flooded homes and roads across the Thai capital. • Nearly 4,900 people were evacuated to shelters as flooding affected approximately 52,000 households.

• Fitch analyst Thomas Rookmaaker reported that Thailand's governance advantage over its regional peers has faded despite improvements in political predictability and debt outlooks. • World Bank governance indicators converted by Fitch show Thailand's percentile rank dropped from near the 60th percentile in the late 1990s to the low 40s.

• Brent Crude oil prices approached $103 as uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz countered a recovery in Saudi Arabian supply. • Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei gaining 1.13% and the KOSPI rising 0.51%, while the Sensex and Hang Seng declined.

• Indian stock indices Sensex and Nifty hit six-month lows on Tuesday as a rising US dollar dragged down emerging market assets. • BSE-listed stocks lost a combined Rs 4.38 lakh crore in market value, with 190 stocks hitting 52-week lows within the first 90 minutes of trading.

• South Korea identified the specific mine responsible for a blast near the Demilitarized Zone and declared that the armistice agreement has been breached. • Malaysia deported 1,500 Myanmar nationals despite receiving objections to the move.

• KuCoin published a daily market snapshot on September 29, 2026, listing the five cryptocurrencies with the highest 24-hour gains. • The top-performing tokens identified in the update were XDP, KAIO, HTR, PUBLIC, and HBAR.