Fed Minutes Reveal Divergent Rate Cut Expectations Amid Middle East Tensions

• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce released its Q1 2026 Small Business Index on April 7, 2026, showing the index declined to 67.0 from 68.4 in the previous quarter, though it remains above the 62.3 score from a year ago. • Inflation reclaimed the top concern among small business owners at 53%, up from 45% last quarter, marking 17 consecutive quarters as the dominant worry; hiring and investment plans are cooling as economic confidence softens. • Cash flow comfort among small business owners has declined, with only 20% reporting being "very comfortable" compared to 31% in Q3 2025, though 72% overall maintain comfort levels; manufacturing firms lead at 81% comfort while retail and professional services lag at 69-70%.

• US stocks recovered from early morning losses Thursday to finish higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, Dow Jones up 0.8% (382 points), and Nasdaq composite up 0.8%, buoyed by optimism over a two-week ceasefire with Iran announced late Tuesday. • Israel's announcement of direct negotiations with Lebanon helped calm market concerns that the ceasefire could unravel due to Israeli bombardment of the country, reversing initial trading pessimism. • The S&P 500 remains just 2.1% below its all-time high set in January, indicating underlying market strength despite geopolitical volatility and oil price fluctuations.

• U.S. stock futures surged with S&P 500 Index futures climbing 25 points to $6,600 after President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of Iran attacks pending agreements. • Oil prices fell sharply in response to the de-escalation news, easing supply disruption fears and boosting market sentiment on Monday morning. • The rally reflects investor optimism over potential US-Iran talks and a 50-day ceasefire, reducing geopolitical risks impacting energy and equities.

• Blackstone closed a $10 billion opportunistic private credit fund on April 8, 2026, reaching its hard cap target despite ongoing capital outflows in the sector. • The fund's successful close highlights Blackstone's strength in private credit as investors remain cautious due to market volatility and higher interest rates. • This deal underscores the resilience of top alternative asset managers in attracting institutional capital amid broader private credit struggles.

• Artivion (AORT) secured U.S. FDA approval for the NEXUS Aortic Arch System on April 7, 2026. • The device approval is expected to accelerate hospital adoption and spark reimbursement discussions. • This milestone positions Artivion for revenue growth in cardiovascular treatments.

• Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, set to succeed Jerome Powell in May 2026. • Warsh, a critic of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies, is viewed by markets as a steady hand amid economic uncertainties. • The nomination comes as PCE inflation rose to 2.9% and core PCE to 3.0% year-on-year in March, aligning with consensus expectations.

• The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index revealed business input prices rose 7.7 percentage points in March 2026. • This spike reflects heightened costs amid geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility, contributing to broader inflationary pressures. • The data underscores challenges for corporate earnings and economic indicators as firms face elevated expenses.

• San Francisco became the first U.S. city where average diesel prices exceeded $8 per gallon due to oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. • National gas prices jumped above $4.11 per gallon, with a 34% increase in one month as oil topped $115 per barrel, per GasBuddy and AAA data. • The surge is squeezing household budgets and testing central banks' ability to combat inflation, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning of an energy supply shock.

• The S&P 500 fell 2% for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the first such streak since 2022, amid Mideast conflict de-escalation hopes. • Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel, with U.S. 10-year yields climbing to 4.43% on inflation fears from sustained high energy prices. • BlackRock warns elevated oil could shift focus from rate cuts to whether central bank policies can match rising inflation.

• India's Reserve Bank of India began its 3-day monetary policy meeting on April 7th, with the decision scheduled for announcement on April 8th, affecting regional market sentiment. • A CNBC TV18 poll indicates market consensus expects no change to repo rates in the upcoming policy decision, suggesting the RBI will maintain its current monetary stance. • The policy meeting comes amid mixed signals from Indian corporate earnings, with HDFC Bank reporting business growth above expectations while Kotak Mahindra Bank fell short.

• US stock indexes showed mixed performance on Monday morning with S&P 500 up 0.1%, Dow down 0.1% or 46 points, and Nasdaq up 0.3% amid ceasefire mediation efforts. • President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges by Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, stating 'you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!' on social media. • Gasoline prices hit $4.12 per gallon nationally, up from below $3 before late February US-Israel attacks, pressuring the economy despite strong March jobs data.