First Thing: Iran to show defiance in six-day funeral for supreme leader

• Türkiye's National Intelligence Academy (MIA) has released a report identifying the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara as a critical turning point for the alliance's "NATO 3.0" evolution. • The report highlights a shift in the burden-sharing debate, moving beyond simple defense spending to focus on which allies develop specific capabilities and assume leadership during crises.

• On July 2, 2026, international attention is focused on the ongoing implementation of the Doha talks between the United States and Iran. • Diplomatic efforts are currently centered on executing the Lebanon framework agreement and maintaining ceasefire arrangements to stabilize the region.

• Iran has initiated public mourning for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, with officials claiming the funeral will attract approximately 20 million people. • Tehran has issued a stern warning to the United States and Israel, stating that any military attacks conducted during the funeral proceedings will be met with "harsh retaliation."

• NATO leaders are convening in Ankara for the 2026 Summit to address critical security challenges and the alliance's future strategic direction. • Key priorities include securing continued U.S. commitment despite skepticism from Donald Trump and urging European nations to increase their own security roles and defense spending.

• Ukraine has declared a day of mourning following a deadly Russian missile strike on Kyiv. • NATO allies are currently preparing for an upcoming summit in Ankara to coordinate responses to the conflict.

• Palestinians and Israelis are marking 1,000 days of conflict following the October 2023 attacks that killed approximately 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. • Israel's military retaliation has resulted in over 73,000 Palestinian deaths, leaving Gaza in a state of devastation.

• A current stage of the conflict involving Iran has concluded, though analysts warn that the present lull may be a temporary pre-election pause rather than a permanent peace. • Tehran is expected to maintain significant economic leverage over the United States through the upcoming midterm elections in November.

• Iranian negotiators have departed Doha, pausing diplomatic talks in Qatar following reports of "positive progress" in negotiations. • The diplomatic hiatus comes as Iran prepares for a multi-day funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in late February.

• U.S. and Iranian officials concluded a round of diplomatic talks in Doha, Qatar, with a primary focus on ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. • The discussions aimed to reduce tensions in a critical global energy corridor to prevent disruptions to international trade and oil markets.

• The United States and Iran concluded a round of indirect talks in Doha on June 21, 2026, focusing primarily on security issues regarding the Strait. • Despite the discussions, officials reported no significant progress toward a lasting peace agreement, with talks circling back to issues previously thought to be resolved.

• US and Iranian representatives concluded a round of talks in Doha without reaching a breakthrough, as the critical issue of Iran's nuclear programme was omitted from the agenda. • The next set of discussions is scheduled to occur after July 9, following the funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

• U.S. and Iranian negotiators held separate meetings on Wednesday in Qatar, facilitated by mediators from Qatar and Pakistan. • Qatari officials reported that "positive progress" was made during these discussions, though the specific terms of the talks were not disclosed.