Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Probability to 25% and Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecasts

• Blackstone closed a $10 billion opportunistic private credit fund on April 8, 2026, reaching its hard cap target despite ongoing capital outflows in the sector. • The fund's successful close highlights Blackstone's strength in private credit as investors remain cautious due to market volatility and higher interest rates. • This deal underscores the resilience of top alternative asset managers in attracting institutional capital amid broader private credit struggles.

• U.S. stock futures surged with S&P 500 Index futures climbing 25 points to $6,600 after President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of Iran attacks pending agreements. • Oil prices fell sharply in response to the de-escalation news, easing supply disruption fears and boosting market sentiment on Monday morning. • The rally reflects investor optimism over potential US-Iran talks and a 50-day ceasefire, reducing geopolitical risks impacting energy and equities.

• Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, set to succeed Jerome Powell in May 2026. • Warsh, a critic of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies, is viewed by markets as a steady hand amid economic uncertainties. • The nomination comes as PCE inflation rose to 2.9% and core PCE to 3.0% year-on-year in March, aligning with consensus expectations.

• Artivion (AORT) secured U.S. FDA approval for the NEXUS Aortic Arch System on April 7, 2026. • The device approval is expected to accelerate hospital adoption and spark reimbursement discussions. • This milestone positions Artivion for revenue growth in cardiovascular treatments.

• The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index revealed business input prices rose 7.7 percentage points in March 2026. • This spike reflects heightened costs amid geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility, contributing to broader inflationary pressures. • The data underscores challenges for corporate earnings and economic indicators as firms face elevated expenses.

• San Francisco became the first U.S. city where average diesel prices exceeded $8 per gallon due to oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. • National gas prices jumped above $4.11 per gallon, with a 34% increase in one month as oil topped $115 per barrel, per GasBuddy and AAA data. • The surge is squeezing household budgets and testing central banks' ability to combat inflation, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning of an energy supply shock.

• The S&P 500 fell 2% for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the first such streak since 2022, amid Mideast conflict de-escalation hopes. • Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel, with U.S. 10-year yields climbing to 4.43% on inflation fears from sustained high energy prices. • BlackRock warns elevated oil could shift focus from rate cuts to whether central bank policies can match rising inflation.

• India's Reserve Bank of India began its 3-day monetary policy meeting on April 7th, with the decision scheduled for announcement on April 8th, affecting regional market sentiment. • A CNBC TV18 poll indicates market consensus expects no change to repo rates in the upcoming policy decision, suggesting the RBI will maintain its current monetary stance. • The policy meeting comes amid mixed signals from Indian corporate earnings, with HDFC Bank reporting business growth above expectations while Kotak Mahindra Bank fell short.

• US stock indexes showed mixed performance on Monday morning with S&P 500 up 0.1%, Dow down 0.1% or 46 points, and Nasdaq up 0.3% amid ceasefire mediation efforts. • President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges by Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, stating 'you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!' on social media. • Gasoline prices hit $4.12 per gallon nationally, up from below $3 before late February US-Israel attacks, pressuring the economy despite strong March jobs data.

• US stock futures edged higher on April 5, 2026, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, as investors reacted to reports of a push for a potential ceasefire in the Iran war. • Brent crude oil dipped to near $108 a barrel, the dollar weakened, and 10-year Treasury yields hovered around 4.36%. • Trading opened shadowed by Trump escalation threats, with several European and Asian markets closed for Easter holiday.

• S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 futures turned lower on Sunday evening ahead of the US market reopening on April 6, 2026, post-Easter weekend. • The downturn follows a holiday break, with trading heavily impacted by recent geopolitical developments and economic data releases. • Investors are monitoring ceasefire reports and Trump-related escalation threats for potential volatility at the open.

• Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF bought $6.9 million worth of a surging tech stock amid ongoing market volatility. • As of April 2, 2026, ARKK was down 12% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 3.8% decline, with a five-year annualized return of -10.6% versus S&P's 12%. • Wood anticipates a 'great acceleration' in global growth driven by innovation, positioning the purchase as a bet on tech recovery.