Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Probability to 25% and Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecasts

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman warned on September 22, 2026, that persistent oil price increases could raise near-term inflation. • Breman stated that these price hikes may lead to inflation levels higher than those previously assumed in the Bank's September Statement.

• Robert Van Kerkhoff of BNP Paribas discussed the growth and success factors of the European exchange-traded fund (ETF) market at Fund Forum 2026. • The presentation focused on the specific strategies asset managers are using to scale their ETF offerings.

• European Central Bank official Philip Lane warned that inflation may become higher and more persistent due to a second wave of rising energy costs. • The warning centers on the risk of "stickier" inflation, meaning price increases that do not easily drop back to target levels.

• The United Forum of Bank Unions, representing seven employee and officer unions, has called for a strike over several pending demands. • The Secretary of the Department of Financial Services chaired a meeting to discuss contingency measures to maintain banking operations and essential customer services.

• The US dollar reached a new local high on Friday before retreating as investors reconsidered the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. • The dollar's advance was limited because other central banks, such as the European Central Bank, have already started or are planning their own monetary tightening cycles.

• Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday following a rally in U.S. technology shares. • South Korea's KOSPI climbed 1.7%, while Taiwan's Weighted Index rose 1.5% with MediaTek surging more than 8%.

• Asian stock markets mostly rose recently as investors awaited a scheduled meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington. • South Korea's Kospi index climbed 1.8% to 7,018.98, driven by a 5% jump in Samsung Electronics shares and a 1% increase for SK Hynix.

• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx) added Bursa Malaysia to its list of recognized stock exchanges in July. • This update joins Malaysia with Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand to allow companies from these markets to apply for secondary listings in Hong Kong.

• The International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3.0% for 2026 and 3.4% for 2027 in its July 2026 update. • This forecast represents a modest slowdown from the 3.5% average growth seen during 2024 and 2025.

• The Sensex rose 564 points and the Nifty closed at 23,414 on Monday, led by gains in the pharma, FMCG, and realty sectors. • Broader market indices lagged behind the main benchmarks, with the Nifty MidCap falling 0.29 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap dropping 0.07 per cent.

• Asian technology stocks rose on Tuesday while oil prices declined. • Investors are currently assessing the recovery of Saudi Arabian exports and anticipating a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

• The Indian stock market rose on September 21, with the Sensex gaining 564 points and the Nifty closing at 23,414. • Aimtron Electronics Limited reported that its U.S. subsidiary, Aimtron International Controls LLC, achieved record quarterly order bookings of US$11.8 million.