Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Probability to 25% and Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecasts

UK's elimination of offshore wind tariffs announced March 13, 2026, creates tailwinds for US renewables including wind, solar, ESS, and nuclear sectors. Domestic companies stand to gain from enhanced global competitiveness and supply chains. This development counters broader market caution with sector-specific optimism. Investors monitor policy spillovers to US energy incentives.

The S&P 500 declined around 1% for the week ending March 13, 2026, capping a volatile session with Nasdaq down nearly 1% on the final day. Dow Jones showed resilience with three mornings of sharp openings recovered to flat or up 250 points, yet year-to-date losses stand at 2%. Stagflation fears intensify due to oil surges and geopolitical risks, impacting investor sentiment. Next week's Nvidia GTC event may spotlight AI sectors amid broader caution.

US 10-year Treasury yields approached 4.5% on March 13, 2026, fueled by inflation worries and oil-driven pressures. This climb raises questions on potential changes to President Trump's economic policies if thresholds are breached. Markets eye bond market stress alongside equity declines for signals. Upcoming data releases could dictate Federal Reserve responses in coming months.

The US announced partial rollback of AI semiconductor export restrictions on March 13, 2026, targeting key technologies amid global competition. This move is poised to boost domestic chipmakers ahead of Nvidia's GTC event next week. Nvidia, HBM, and related AI plays face heightened focus with potential upside. Policy shift aims to balance national security and industry growth.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supported a proposal strengthening capital requirements for banks' trading desks, calibrated to U.S. capital markets. The rules aim to enhance resilience without stifling market-making activities. This comes amid volatile conditions from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures. Implementation could influence bank profitability and lending in the coming quarters.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares surged over 20% year-to-date, reaching record highs as crude oil approached $100 per barrel due to supply fears. U.S. oil producers benefit from domestic output buffering global disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This sector strength offsets broader market declines, with the Dow down 6% monthly. Analysts warn of inflation risks persisting post-conflict.

American Airlines shares dropped 31% year-to-date, United Airlines 23%, and Delta Air Lines 16% amid skyrocketing fuel prices from Iran tensions. Cruise operators Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line faced similar pressures from higher energy costs. This contrasts with defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman rallying on expanded orders. Investors anticipate prolonged impacts on travel sectors unless conflict resolves swiftly.

Crude oil benchmarks hover near $100 per barrel, up 70% since early January, with forecasts of $150 highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. U.S. fuel prices have risen nearly 35% from January lows, though domestic supplies prevent shortages. Energy producers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron hit record highs, while the Dow Jones fell 6% in a month amid stagflation concerns. Prolonged conflict could reverse Fed rate cuts and pressure consumer sectors further.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,632.19, down 0.61% for the day and marking its lowest level of 2026 so far, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 119.38 points. This weekly slide reflects broader concerns over escalating Middle East tensions impacting energy supply chains. Energy stocks like Exxon Mobil and Chevron surged over 20% year-to-date, offsetting losses in airlines such as American Airlines down 31%, highlighting sector divergence. Markets face heightened volatility next week depending on oil prices and geopolitical developments.

Micron Technology closed at $426 on March 13, 2026, up significantly year-to-date by about 50%, following analysts' reiteration of an outperform rating and price target increase to $500 from $320. The upgrade highlights Micron's strong positioning in memory chips despite broader market declines driven by oil surges and geopolitical tensions. This move underscores investor optimism in semiconductors even as the Nasdaq fell 0.9% and S&P 500 dropped 0.6% on Friday. Upcoming earnings could test sustained momentum amid sector volatility.

Verizon Communications emerged as a key stock to watch on March 13, 2026, following the major indexes' rally failure with Nasdaq down 0.9% below its 200-day line. Analysts highlight Verizon's defensive qualities amid S&P 500 and Dow approaching key support levels near their 200-day moving averages. The telecom giant could benefit from heightened volatility as investors seek stability post-oil surge. Next week's trading will test if telecoms lead any market recovery.