JPMorgan Warns Markets Overreacting to Oil-Driven Inflation Fears Ahead of Central Bank Signals

• Asian equities fell on Friday after a U.S. trade official said chip export controls were not discussed in detail during Thursday’s U.S.-China talks, pressuring semiconductor shares across the region. • South Korea’s KOSPI led losses, dropping 6.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.6% and mainland China’s CSI 300 eased 0.8%.

• Asian stocks rose on Friday, with gains in Japan, South Korea and Australia pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher after Wall Street gauges hit records. • The move was driven by the AI trade, strong corporate earnings and resilient U.S. consumer data, while Nvidia's six-day rally brought its market value closer to $6 trillion.

• Asia has emerged as the new center of the global AI boom, surpassing Silicon Valley, fueled by surging demand for AI chips that propelled Asian tech stocks higher. • The AI-driven rally boosted South Korea's Kospi to a fresh record close of 7,981.41, up 1.8%, supported by technology shares amid robust corporate results in Japan.

• Citigroup announced plans to expand its Asia-Pacific prime brokerage division by approximately 10% this year to attract more hedge fund clients amid growing regional activity. • The hiring push targets capturing increased hedge fund business in APAC, a key growth area for the U.S. bank's securities services.

• U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Thursday to discuss U.S.-China relations, Taiwan, and economic cooperation, with no major breakthroughs expected by analysts. • Asian markets were mixed: Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1% to 62,654.05 after hitting an intraday record above 63,700; South Korea's Kospi rose 1.8% to a record 7,981.41 driven by AI tech stocks; Shanghai Composite dropped 1.5% to 4,177.92 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng flatlined at 26,389.04.

• Wall Street traded mixed on Wednesday morning, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 235 points or 0.5% at 9:35 a.m. ET, and Nasdaq up 0.2% amid a technology sector rebound. • Tech stocks like Micron Technology surged 4.3% and Nvidia rose 2.4%, the top gainer on the S&P 500, following a pause in AI-driven momentum; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was invited by President Trump to discuss AI chip shipments to China.

• A Santander US survey for Q1 2026 found nearly 8 in 10 Americans (78%) believe they are on the right track toward financial prosperity, marking a significant improvement in sentiment. • The share of respondents feeling financially insecure dropped to a survey low, indicating resilient consumer confidence amid economic pressures.

• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, expected to slow US economic growth compared to a no-conflict baseline scenario, according to Deloitte analysis. • Despite pressures from elevated energy costs, US firms are unlikely to materially reduce investment plans due to resilient growth in AI and technology sectors.

• Asian markets opened lower but mostly recovered on May 13, with MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rebounding to a 0.3% gain after an initial 1% drop, driven by AI optimism offsetting US inflation and stalled US-Iran talks. • Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to around 62,774, South Korea's Kospi surged 2.6% to a record 7,708-7,844 after falling 3.2% on Samsung Electronics' failed union pay deal, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,645.

• South Korea's Kospi index plummeted as much as 3.2% early on May 13 due to Samsung Electronics failing to reach a pay deal with its union, but rebounded sharply 2.6% to close at a record 7,708-7,844. • The recovery was aided by government efforts to manage the labor situation and broader AI optimism reviving market sentiment despite US inflation data and Iran tensions.

• Global hedge funds ramped up investments in Asia, with weekly buying of South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese stocks reaching a 10-year high for the week ending May 7, according to a Morgan Stanley report. • The surge, the heaviest in over a decade in notional terms, was driven by clients across all regions and strategies targeting Asia's technology sector amid the AI boom.

• U.S. stock markets declined Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling 0.9% from record highs as technology stocks weakened and oil prices continued rising amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict. • Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $3.43 to $101.50 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed $3.62 to $107.83 per barrel, as President Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was on "life support" after rejecting Iran's latest peace proposal.