Middle East Conflict Drives Higher Oil Prices Impacting US Economic Growth

• South Korea's Kospi index plummeted as much as 3.2% early on May 13 due to Samsung Electronics failing to reach a pay deal with its union, but rebounded sharply 2.6% to close at a record 7,708-7,844. • The recovery was aided by government efforts to manage the labor situation and broader AI optimism reviving market sentiment despite US inflation data and Iran tensions.

• Asian markets opened lower but mostly recovered on May 13, with MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rebounding to a 0.3% gain after an initial 1% drop, driven by AI optimism offsetting US inflation and stalled US-Iran talks. • Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to around 62,774, South Korea's Kospi surged 2.6% to a record 7,708-7,844 after falling 3.2% on Samsung Electronics' failed union pay deal, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,645.

• Global hedge funds ramped up investments in Asia, with weekly buying of South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese stocks reaching a 10-year high for the week ending May 7, according to a Morgan Stanley report. • The surge, the heaviest in over a decade in notional terms, was driven by clients across all regions and strategies targeting Asia's technology sector amid the AI boom.

• U.S. stock markets declined Tuesday with the S&P 500 falling 0.9% from record highs as technology stocks weakened and oil prices continued rising amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict. • Benchmark U.S. crude jumped $3.43 to $101.50 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed $3.62 to $107.83 per barrel, as President Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was on "life support" after rejecting Iran's latest peace proposal.

• Expected S&P 500 earnings growth for Q1 has doubled to 28% since early April, fueled by upward revisions across sectors. • Mega-cap tech stocks, dubbed the 'Magnificent Seven,' account for 55% of quarterly and 37% of annual growth, comprising a third of index market cap.

• Asia's diverse economic stories across countries are generating attractive opportunities in fixed income markets despite geopolitical headwinds. • Regional credit markets have shown strong resilience weathering recent stresses related to US-Iran ceasefire uncertainties and oil price volatility.

• Global equity markets including Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI reached fresh record highs driven by AI optimism overpowering US-Iran ceasefire tensions. • Rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and hawkish Fed rhetoric pushed US Treasury yields higher while reinforcing higher-for-longer interest rates and USD strength.

• A failed peace proposal over the weekend propelled oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields higher on Monday morning, with equity futures opening modestly lower. • Markets shrugged off geopolitical risks last week as oil declined on Iran ceasefire comments, but renewed tensions reversed that trend amid global energy volatility.

• U.S. stocks surged last week with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching new record highs, supported by stronger-than-expected April jobs data and solid tech earnings. • The S&P 500 climbed 10.42% in April to close at a record 7,209.01, while the Nasdaq 100 rallied 15.64% and Dow gained 7.14%, led by mega-cap tech and AI enthusiasm.

• Real GDP expanded at a 2% annualized pace in Q1 2026, driven by business investment surging to its fastest rate in nearly three years on AI equipment and software spending. • Consumer spending rose modestly at 1.6%, down from 1.9% last quarter, impacted by bad winter weather and March energy price spikes.

• The Federal Reserve Board issued its Financial Stability Report for May 2026 on May 8, assessing risks amid solid economic growth and market highs. • Report highlights stress from rising oil prices, geopolitical strains, and narrow equity leadership concentrated in AI-driven tech sectors.