OECD cuts 2026 global growth forecast and warns of recession risk if Iran war persists

- The OECD has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is damaging worldwide economic prospects.
- A more severe economic shock is predicted if an effective ceasefire is not reached before 2027, though some impacts may be offset by tighter fiscal policies and the end of the NextGenerationEU recovery spending.
- Specifically in the United Kingdom, growth is projected to drop from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026.
- The OECD expects a slight recovery to 1.1% in 2027 as global trade and financial conditions gradually improve.
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