Philippines at Mid-Year: Three Headwinds, Three Tailwinds - ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office - AMRO ASIA

• Major European stock indexes opened mostly higher on Tuesday as investors shifted their focus toward the start of the new corporate earnings season. • Market activity was driven by the release of financial figures from key companies, including Ryanair, Novartis, and Julius Baer.

• In the first quarter of 2026, the seasonally adjusted general government deficit to GDP ratio for the euro area (EA21) and the European Union was 3.1%. • This figure represents a slight decrease from the 3.2% deficit recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

• European stocks, including the DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE MIB, traded cautiously with modest gains, as the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.2% in early trading. • Market optimism regarding US-Iran diplomacy was offset by a new threat from Yemen's Houthi movement to impose a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia.

• Recent Eurostat data reveals a surprising north-south divide in European household debt, showing that southern nations are more conservative borrowers than those in the north. • Italy, Greece, and Spain report household debt levels of 35.9%, 38.0%, and 42.9% of GDP respectively, all of which fall well below the European Union average.

• Indian stock indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on July 22, 2026. • The anticipated decline is driven by a jump in global oil prices resulting from the widening conflict between the US and Iran.

• Macroeconomics plays a critical role in shaping trading strategies by providing essential data on GDP, inflation, and interest rates. • Traders utilize these key economic indicators to gauge the overall health of an economy and predict subsequent market behavior.

• Indian stock markets closed marginally higher, driven by a combination of positive corporate earnings and mixed global market signals. • Adani Energy Solutions reported significant profit growth, contrasting with a decline seen at Adani Total Gas, while Maruti Suzuki announced a price increase for its vehicles.

• Hana Securities reports that the KOSPI's recent 25% decline mirrors historical post-shock rebounds, such as those following the China and Dubai shocks, rather than the dot-com bust. • Analysts argue that AI investment and semiconductor demand have not yet peaked, citing rising net profit and capital expenditure forecasts for U.S. Big Tech companies.

• The S&P/ASX 200 is expected to rise on Wednesday, July 22, following a positive overnight session for commodity prices and a recovery on Wall Street. • Market attention is focused on potential new Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% that could be announced this week as current global duties expire this Friday.

• Gabriel India has appointed Mahendra K Goyal as group CEO and managing director for a five-year term and approved a Rs. 2,231 crore acquisition of a 28.99% stake in HL Mando Anand. • Hind Rectifiers is expanding its capital by allotting 10.8 lakh shares at Rs. 920.50 per share as part of a larger Rs. 1,000 crore preferential issue.

• South Korea's nonfinancial corporate net worth has plummeted to a record low despite a recent surge in the KOSPI stock index. • The decline is driven by a paradoxical effect where the rising KOSPI has swelled firms' equity liabilities, offsetting the gains from the stock boom.