Strategist Predicts Peak War Panic in Markets Within 1-3 Weeks from US-Iran Escalation

• Adobe's CEO announced his resignation on March 13, 2026, causing the stock to plunge 7.6% in U.S. trading on Friday amid renewed skepticism over its AI initiatives. • The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to around 6,632, with Nasdaq Composite down 0.9%, pressured by oil prices near $100 per barrel from Iran tensions. • This leadership change revives investor concerns about Adobe's competitiveness in AI tools against rivals like OpenAI integrations in competitors.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly drop, with the Dow falling 2% and Nasdaq shedding 1.3% due to soaring oil prices and broad market selling. • Surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran escalation, drove the downturn, as investors brace for NVIDIA GTC AI event and FOMC rate decision this week (March 16-20, 2026). • Markets now price only a 33% chance of a June rate cut, down from 57% last month, amid persistent inflation data; Thursday's jobless claims will gauge labor market health.

• The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for its third consecutive weekly loss, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2% and the NASDAQ shed 1.3% as geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices created broad selling pressure across all major indices. • Investors face a critical week ahead with the NVIDIA GTC conference (the "AI Oscars") scheduled alongside the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday and jobless claims data on Thursday. • Persistent inflation has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders pricing in just a 33% probability of a June rate cut compared to 57% one month ago, reflecting heightened uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path.

• US stock futures fell in early Monday trading on March 16, 2026, while oil prices gained amid supply fears following a US military strike on Iran's Kharg Island, the country's main oil export terminal. • The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% last week to close at 6,632.19, marking its third straight weekly decline, with the Dow down 2% and Nasdaq off 1.3% due to geopolitical tensions and soaring oil. • Escalation risks persist as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, threatening prolonged supply disruptions and potential oil prices up to $200 per barrel in 2026, impacting global markets and commodities.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week to 6,632.19, now down 5% from its January 27 high of 6,978.60 and 3.1% year-to-date, hit by broad selling across indices including Dow -2% and Nasdaq -1.3%. • Geopolitical tensions from US-Iran escalation drove oil higher, with markets pricing in prolonged uncertainty as the conflict enters its third week. • Core PCE price index rose 0.36% month-over-month, with annualized three-month trend at 3.7%, signaling persistent inflation pressuring Fed rate cut expectations.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.

UK's elimination of offshore wind tariffs announced March 13, 2026, creates tailwinds for US renewables including wind, solar, ESS, and nuclear sectors. Domestic companies stand to gain from enhanced global competitiveness and supply chains. This development counters broader market caution with sector-specific optimism. Investors monitor policy spillovers to US energy incentives.

The S&P 500 declined around 1% for the week ending March 13, 2026, capping a volatile session with Nasdaq down nearly 1% on the final day. Dow Jones showed resilience with three mornings of sharp openings recovered to flat or up 250 points, yet year-to-date losses stand at 2%. Stagflation fears intensify due to oil surges and geopolitical risks, impacting investor sentiment. Next week's Nvidia GTC event may spotlight AI sectors amid broader caution.

US 10-year Treasury yields approached 4.5% on March 13, 2026, fueled by inflation worries and oil-driven pressures. This climb raises questions on potential changes to President Trump's economic policies if thresholds are breached. Markets eye bond market stress alongside equity declines for signals. Upcoming data releases could dictate Federal Reserve responses in coming months.

The US announced partial rollback of AI semiconductor export restrictions on March 13, 2026, targeting key technologies amid global competition. This move is poised to boost domestic chipmakers ahead of Nvidia's GTC event next week. Nvidia, HBM, and related AI plays face heightened focus with potential upside. Policy shift aims to balance national security and industry growth.

American Airlines shares dropped 31% year-to-date, United Airlines 23%, and Delta Air Lines 16% amid skyrocketing fuel prices from Iran tensions. Cruise operators Carnival Corporation and Norwegian Cruise Line faced similar pressures from higher energy costs. This contrasts with defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman rallying on expanded orders. Investors anticipate prolonged impacts on travel sectors unless conflict resolves swiftly.