Thursday briefing: ​What difference will the ceasefire in the Middle East make, and will it hold?

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged member states at the SCO summit to combat state-backed terrorism and eliminate "double standards" in global security. • The summit resulted in the approval of regulations for the SCO Universal Centre for Countering Security and a 2026-2030 action plan for developing regional ports and logistics centers.

• A series of global meetings and diplomatic shifts have highlighted a growing fracture in international geopolitics. • The instability is primarily attributed to unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy and leadership.

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif gathered for a group photo at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. • During the event, PM Modi was observed briefly exchanging words with President Xi Jinping, marking a notable interaction between the two leaders.

• The Iranian regime is attempting to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz by projecting a perceived threat to passing vessels. • US officials reported to Axios on August 19 that CENTCOM campaigns have successfully degraded Iran's maritime surveillance, limiting their monitoring capabilities to a few radars and Fast Attack Craft (FAC).

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi advocated for diplomacy over conflict in West Asia, emphasizing that terrorism remains a critical global challenge. • Modi urged a shift away from "action-reaction" strategies, calling for a more comprehensive approach to dismantle the global terror ecosystem.

• Geopolitical shocks and global conflicts are severely undermining Africa's climate goals by triggering widespread economic and environmental disruption. • These distant crises drive up inflation and increase the cost of energy, diverting critical funding away from vital climate resilience projects.

• The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) concluded its summit with a strategic goal to position itself as a global powerhouse challenging Western dominance. • Representing nearly half of the world's population, the group aims to foster a multipolar future, though the summit highlighted significant internal disagreements and divergent national interests.

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Russia in late August 2026 aboard an Air Force C-17 “Globemaster III” heavy-lift transport plane. • During the visit, Ratcliffe reportedly met with Russian intelligence counterparts, though the specific nature and objectives of the meeting were not immediately disclosed.

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