Treasury Yields Rise as Oil Surge Pushes Back Fed Rate Cut Expectations

• The S&P 500 fell 2% for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the first such streak since 2022, amid Mideast conflict de-escalation hopes. • Brent crude rose to $112 per barrel, with U.S. 10-year yields climbing to 4.43% on inflation fears from sustained high energy prices. • BlackRock warns elevated oil could shift focus from rate cuts to whether central bank policies can match rising inflation.

• San Francisco became the first U.S. city where average diesel prices exceeded $8 per gallon due to oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. • National gas prices jumped above $4.11 per gallon, with a 34% increase in one month as oil topped $115 per barrel, per GasBuddy and AAA data. • The surge is squeezing household budgets and testing central banks' ability to combat inflation, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warning of an energy supply shock.

• The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index revealed business input prices rose 7.7 percentage points in March 2026. • This spike reflects heightened costs amid geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility, contributing to broader inflationary pressures. • The data underscores challenges for corporate earnings and economic indicators as firms face elevated expenses.

• India's Reserve Bank of India began its 3-day monetary policy meeting on April 7th, with the decision scheduled for announcement on April 8th, affecting regional market sentiment. • A CNBC TV18 poll indicates market consensus expects no change to repo rates in the upcoming policy decision, suggesting the RBI will maintain its current monetary stance. • The policy meeting comes amid mixed signals from Indian corporate earnings, with HDFC Bank reporting business growth above expectations while Kotak Mahindra Bank fell short.

• US stock indexes showed mixed performance on Monday morning with S&P 500 up 0.1%, Dow down 0.1% or 46 points, and Nasdaq up 0.3% amid ceasefire mediation efforts. • President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges by Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, stating 'you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!' on social media. • Gasoline prices hit $4.12 per gallon nationally, up from below $3 before late February US-Israel attacks, pressuring the economy despite strong March jobs data.

• US stock futures edged higher on April 5, 2026, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, as investors reacted to reports of a push for a potential ceasefire in the Iran war. • Brent crude oil dipped to near $108 a barrel, the dollar weakened, and 10-year Treasury yields hovered around 4.36%. • Trading opened shadowed by Trump escalation threats, with several European and Asian markets closed for Easter holiday.

• S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 futures turned lower on Sunday evening ahead of the US market reopening on April 6, 2026, post-Easter weekend. • The downturn follows a holiday break, with trading heavily impacted by recent geopolitical developments and economic data releases. • Investors are monitoring ceasefire reports and Trump-related escalation threats for potential volatility at the open.

• Faraday Future's 2025 annual financial report revealed stockholders' equity shifted from negative to positive. • The company's EAI robotics business posted a positive gross margin in its first delivery quarter this year. • Faraday Future targets over 1,000 unit shipments for its EAI robotics by end of 2026, signaling expansion plans.

• Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF bought $6.9 million worth of a surging tech stock amid ongoing market volatility. • As of April 2, 2026, ARKK was down 12% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 3.8% decline, with a five-year annualized return of -10.6% versus S&P's 12%. • Wood anticipates a 'great acceleration' in global growth driven by innovation, positioning the purchase as a bet on tech recovery.

• Whalen Wealth Management acquired a new stake of 5,261 shares in Chevron (NYSE:CVX), valued at approximately $802,000, during Q4. • Institutional investors now hold 72.42% of Chevron; Bank of America raised its price target to $206 with a 'buy' rating, while Citigroup lifted to $235. • Chevron reported Q4 EPS of $1.52, beating estimates by $0.08; the stock's 50-day moving average stands at $189.15 and 200-day at $166.77.

• Major US indexes showed mixed performance with DJIA ETF down 0.09% at 465.06, S&P ETF up 0.09% at 655.83, and QQQ up 0.11% at 584.98. • Energy sector outperformed daily with +0.59% gain and +29.41% YTD, while Financial Services lagged at +0.29% daily but -10.46% YTD; Telecom led daily at +2.57%. • Commodities volatile: Oil surged 11.93% to $112.06, Gold dropped 2.29% to $4,702.70, Bitcoin fell 0.31% to $66,724.

• Bank mergers are surging in the US, driving increased branch closures particularly in rural areas as institutions cut costs to compete with online banks. • Ohio leads with six closures announced in 2026, including Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus; Texas follows with four, while South Dakota, Delaware, Illinois, and Florida each report three. • Closures echo a decade-long trend, with 15% of US bank branches shuttered between 2015 and 2024 per Statista data.