Treasury Yields Signal Only Half a Story on U.S. Economy - Seoul Economic Daily

• Global market traders are monitoring upcoming U.S. payrolls data to predict the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. • Market participants currently estimate a nearly 50-per-cent chance of a rate change following comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller.

• Asian currencies strengthened on Friday, led by a sharp rally in the Japanese yen as the U.S. dollar weakened. • The market shift followed dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller regarding the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

• Treasury yields rose sharply this week following a hawkish speech by Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. • The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 4.82%, marking its highest level since late 2023.

• Asian stock benchmarks mostly rose during early Friday trading following a rally in big technology stocks on Wall Street. • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 2.1% to 25,751.26, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% to 64,622.33.

• Stock markets are becoming more sensitive to interest rates and oil price volatility as the positive impact of second-quarter earnings fades. • Analyst Cau notes that macroeconomics is now the primary driver for equities after the Q2 earnings cushion absorbed tighter financial conditions over the summer.

• Wall Street stocks fell and Treasury yields rose during early trading following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. • The government reported that U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs to their payrolls last month.

• The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, according to a report released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. • This growth follows a surprise decline in employment during the month of July.

• Global government bond yields are reaching multi-decade highs as debt levels rise across most G7 nations. • US tech giants are flooding European bond markets to fund AI investments that could reach $1 trillion by 2028, according to the European Central Bank.

• U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose while stocks declined on Friday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. • Short-term interest-rate futures showed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September jumped to 65% immediately after the data release.

• Analysts provided a market roundup of Thai and foreign stock movements and the global economy on September 4, 2026. • The Thai market is expected to move sideways within a specific range during the coming week.

• The Indian stock market closed in the green on Friday, though the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices erased most of their intraday gains during the closing auction session. • Benchmark indices faced pressure on Thursday, September 3, due to rising crude oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.