Trump's Influence Tested in Early 2026 Republican Primaries Across Key States

• President Trump's mixed signals on the Iran war complicate predictions for its resolution, creating uncertainty for Republican strategists. • The messaging discord may lead to electoral consequences for the GOP in the 2026 midterms, as voters question the party's foreign policy coherence. • With primaries underway, internal party divisions over Trump's approach could erode his influence in battleground districts.

• President Trump yesterday escalated rhetoric by renewing threats to 'completely obliterate' Iranian power plants, oil production facilities, and possibly all infrastructure. • The statement comes amid ongoing U.S. military pressure on Iran, with diplomatic outcomes remaining unclear after three months of conflict. • This hawkish posture risks further entangling the U.S. in the region, potentially impacting domestic politics and midterm races.

• The U.S. Supreme Court will argue Barbara v. United States on April 1, directly challenging President Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship. • The Trump administration has secured victories in most immigration-related lawsuits reaching the court, including last summer's birthright citizenship dispute. • Legal experts note that these immigration wins do not guarantee success in the citizenship case, as it tests the 14th Amendment's core protections.

• President Trump is pressing Congress to cut short its two-week recess and return to fund the Department of Homeland Security, now over 40 days into the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history. • White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated Trump offered to host a big Easter dinner if lawmakers return to fight Democrats on the issue. • The House passed a bill to fund DHS through May 22, but top Democrats called it 'dead on arrival' in the Senate; Senate partially funded DHS except ICE and border protection last Friday.

• Saudi Arabia, UAE, and other Gulf allies are privately urging President Trump to prosecute the U.S.-led war against Iran longer, arguing Tehran remains insufficiently weakened after a month of bombings. • Allies shifted from initial complaints over lack of notice to viewing the conflict as a historic chance to cripple Iran's clerical rule, per U.S., Gulf, and Israeli officials. • Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed alignment with Gulf partners, stating on 'Good Morning America' that Iran's 'religious zealots' must never possess nuclear weapons due to their apocalyptic vision.

• President Trump's approval rating dropped to 41% in a Fox News poll released last week, with 59% of voters disapproving, marking the lowest point of his second term. • A war abroad and stalled domestic agenda are colliding with weakening polls, raising alarms inside the GOP as midterm fears grow. • The declining ratings underscore challenges for Republicans heading into elections, potentially impacting party strategy and legislative priorities.

• Millions of people participated in more than 3,100 protests across the United States on March 30, 2026, with significant demonstrations occurring in the capital, Washington DC, and hundreds of other locations. • Protesters denounced what they characterized as authoritarian governance, the administration's immigration stance, climate change denial, isolationist foreign policy, and military involvement in Iran. • The scale and geographic breadth of the demonstrations reflect widespread public opposition to multiple Trump administration policies spanning domestic and international affairs.

• The SAVE America Act, which would have implemented election law changes at the federal level, has stalled in Congress. • President Trump has shifted strategy to reshape election laws at the state level while attempting to assert control over elections beyond constitutional limits. • Election law experts warn that Trump's efforts to influence state election procedures represent an attempt to consolidate power beyond what the Constitution permits.

• Organizers reported 'No Kings' day protests drew huge crowds in major cities across the United States and internationally on March 28, with demonstrations described as potentially one of the largest in US history. • More than 3,100 protest events took place nationwide, reflecting widespread mobilization against Trump administration policies. • The scale of turnout underscores significant public opposition to current political leadership and Trump's governing agenda.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a Senate-negotiated Department of Homeland Security funding deal early Friday, dramatically denouncing the agreement reached after weeks of effort by Senate Majority Leader John Thune. • The collapse leaves DHS in a partial shutdown since mid-February with Congress now on a two-week spring break, creating an impasse with no clear path to resolution. • The rupture between the two top Republican leaders exposes rare discord as they work to advance President Trump's priorities before November elections.

• The House passed legislation on Friday to fund the Department of Homeland Security for 60 days at current levels through May 22, extending funding for all agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement. • The measure cleared the House 213–203, with three Democrats voting alongside Republicans, automatically passing once the rule was adopted without a separate floor vote. • Senate Democrats rejected the House GOP proposal as "dead on arrival," having already passed their own bipartisan bill that excluded ICE and parts of Customs and Border Protection funding.