Ukraine war briefing: Russian army records almost no territorial gains for first time since 2023, analysis shows

• The article examines whether a potential military failure in Iran would fundamentally change U.S. strategic approaches to warfare and foreign intervention. • It notes a historical trend where veterans and voters punished previous administrations for the high costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In today’s newsletter: As ministers scramble to resolve overcrowding in prisons, experts say the crisis demands a rethink of who we lock up – and what happens when they’re set freeGood morning. On his family holiday last week, the prime minister, Andy Burnham, was reported to be taking daily calls from Ministry of Justice officials about his government’s early release scheme. A furious public outcry has gathered pace since it emerged that the plan – brought in by his predecessor, Keir Starmer, to alleviate overcrowding in prisons across England and Wales – might include two of the killers of PC Andrew Harper and other serious sexual offenders, including grooming gang perpetrators.After several weeks of “system says no” briefings, which Harper’s mother Debbie Adlam has described as “a rollercoaster … really draining”, yesterday Burnham endeavoured to put a pin in it until September.UK news | Repeated debilitating heatwaves this summer are likely to have cost the UK economy more than £4bn in lost economic output by the end of July, new analysis shows.Meta | Courts in England and Wales have joined a number of restaurants, theatres and pubs in banning the controversial Meta glasses, which can record video footage while being worn.Middle East | Firefighters and residents of south Lebanon have accused the Israeli military of lighting wildfires in the region, as forested areas burned down in blazes sparked by Israeli bombing.UK politics | Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has been accused of using “nasty tactics” in an attempt to intimidate journalists and deflect attention from his own financial affairs after issuing a legal threat to the Guardian.US news | Democrats called on Tuesday for a congressional briefing over a stunning charade in which Donald Trump was secretly spirited to a different plane than the one the public and press believed he was travelling on. Continue reading...

Lobbyist Jeremy Greenwood gives evidence about allegations linked to Reformers at Independent Commission Against Corruption hearingMembers of a conservative Christian Liberal group received a “kickback” from consultancy payments made by the governing body for more than 600 schools in New South Wales, an inquiry has heard.Consultant and lobbyist Jeremy Greenwood gave his third day of evidence to the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s (Icac) Operation Rosny on Wednesday. Continue reading...

Master’s student made first bar with 100% UK ingredients since 1932 to highlight affect of climate crisis on cocoa plants The late queen was the only person in history to have ever eaten a chocolate bar made with 100% British ingredients, after she was given one as a six-year-old in 1932 by the confectioner Rowntree’s.The bar was created from a glasshouse-grown cocoa plant, at Rowntree’s headquarters in York. Continue reading...

Forecasters warned the Chinese capital could receive more than one-third of its average annual rainfall over 24 hoursThousands of people have been evacuated from areas at risk of flooding and landslides in Beijing, as the remnants of Typhoon Dolphin continue to bring torrential rain to northern and central China.Forecasters warned on Tuesday that the Chinese capital could receive more than 150mm of rain over the following 24 hours, with some districts forecast to exceed 200mm – more than one-third of Beijing’s average annual rainfall of 528mm. Continue reading...

Rio Tinto said in December it may cease operations at the Tomago aluminium smelter at the end of its current electricity supply contractAnthony Albanese and the New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, are preparing to mount a major bailout of Australia’s largest aluminium smelter, in a deal worth as much as $2.5bn.Resources giant Rio Tinto said in December it was contemplating ceasing operations at the Tomago aluminium smelter in NSW at the end of its current electricity supply contract. Continue reading...

Organoids and tissues grown from human cells promise more accurate results, with £20m Cambridge project to create standardised modelsMiniature human organs and other tissues are to be grown from NHS patients’ cells in a drive to improve medicine testing and reduce the number of animals used in drug development.Scientists will use the clumps of tissue to learn how diseases vary between patients, helping them identify which treatments are best for different people based on the particular pathology underlying their condition. Continue reading...

Exclusive: Horace Mason, 74, who has lived in Sweden for 25 years, faces being deported after court rulingA 74-year-old British man who has been living in Sweden for 25 years who needs round-the-clock care for dementia has been given 10 days to leave the country after he lost a post-Brexit migration court case.The deportation order comes after a Swedish court ruling in July that the government’s drive to reduce immigration trumped the needs of a man in full-time care. Continue reading...

First responders, residents and environmental groups say military dropping flares to destroy forests and cropsFirefighters and residents of south Lebanon have accused the Israeli military of lighting wildfires in the region, as forested areas burned down in blazes sparked by Israeli bombing.Environmental groups said the fires in recent weeks were part of a longstanding Israeli practice of targeting Lebanon’s natural environment. Continue reading...

Verdant thinktank says cost could top £25bn a year by 2030 and calls for maximum temperature for working and urban redesign to cool down citiesRepeated debilitating heatwaves this summer are likely to have cost the UK economy more than £4bn in lost economic output by the end of July, new analysis shows.Green thinktank Verdant had suggested June’s unseasonally hot weather had an economic cost of £2.36bn. Updating its assessment to include last month’s high temperatures, it finds a £4.4bn hit to output. Continue reading...

State’s Democratic lieutenant governor bests Angie Craig in another election contest pitting a progressive against a moderatePeggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, won the Democratic primary for US Senate in the state, in another election contest that pitted a progressive against a moderate, this time with immigration issues at the center.The US Senate race in Minnesota, in which Flanagan ousted congresswoman Angie Craig, was yet another example of progressive campaigns toppling moderates as an anti-establishment wave continues across Democratic primaries. But the state’s race was also a response to the long shadow of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in January. Continue reading...

Ahmed, who maintains his innocence, was accused of putting his father in a headlock in MarchThe man who disarmed one of the gunmen allegedly responsible for the Bondi Beach massacre has had an assault case against him tossed out.Ahmed al Ahmed, 44, had been accused of putting his father in a headlock on 9 March and intimidation over an alleged incident in June. Continue reading...