US Treasury Volatility Hits 9-Month High on Inflation Fears

• Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF bought $6.9 million worth of a surging tech stock amid ongoing market volatility. • As of April 2, 2026, ARKK was down 12% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 3.8% decline, with a five-year annualized return of -10.6% versus S&P's 12%. • Wood anticipates a 'great acceleration' in global growth driven by innovation, positioning the purchase as a bet on tech recovery.

• Whalen Wealth Management acquired a new stake of 5,261 shares in Chevron (NYSE:CVX), valued at approximately $802,000, during Q4. • Institutional investors now hold 72.42% of Chevron; Bank of America raised its price target to $206 with a 'buy' rating, while Citigroup lifted to $235. • Chevron reported Q4 EPS of $1.52, beating estimates by $0.08; the stock's 50-day moving average stands at $189.15 and 200-day at $166.77.

• Faraday Future's 2025 annual financial report revealed stockholders' equity shifted from negative to positive. • The company's EAI robotics business posted a positive gross margin in its first delivery quarter this year. • Faraday Future targets over 1,000 unit shipments for its EAI robotics by end of 2026, signaling expansion plans.

• Bank mergers are surging in the US, driving increased branch closures particularly in rural areas as institutions cut costs to compete with online banks. • Ohio leads with six closures announced in 2026, including Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus; Texas follows with four, while South Dakota, Delaware, Illinois, and Florida each report three. • Closures echo a decade-long trend, with 15% of US bank branches shuttered between 2015 and 2024 per Statista data.

• Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS) announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.44 per share, signaling strong financial performance and shareholder commitment. • Despite the positive news, FIS stock declined 4.85% to a 52-week low of around $45.17 amid broader market weakness, with Nasdaq-100 down 0.57% and S&P 500 down 0.09%. • Wall Street analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating with 10 Buy, 5 Hold ratings; average price target $80.31, ranging from $65 to $90.

• Major US indexes showed mixed performance with DJIA ETF down 0.09% at 465.06, S&P ETF up 0.09% at 655.83, and QQQ up 0.11% at 584.98. • Energy sector outperformed daily with +0.59% gain and +29.41% YTD, while Financial Services lagged at +0.29% daily but -10.46% YTD; Telecom led daily at +2.57%. • Commodities volatile: Oil surged 11.93% to $112.06, Gold dropped 2.29% to $4,702.70, Bitcoin fell 0.31% to $66,724.

• The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board concluded its 2026 Article IV Consultation on April 2, stating there is "little room to cut interest rates in 2026" despite moderating inflation expectations. • The IMF projects U.S. GDP growth will reach 2.4% in 2026, up from 2.0% in 2025, while the federal funds rate is forecast to decline only from 3.6% to 3.4% — representing barely a single rate cut for the entire year. • Inflation is on track to hit the 2% target by early 2027, but the IMF warns that growth will peak this year and slowly decay toward 1.8%, while U.S. debt continues climbing annually.

• The S&P 500 index has declined 6.96% year-to-date through early April 2026, with the S&P 500 Growth Index dropping a steeper 11.11% amid shifting investor focus. • Investment managers adopted defensive postures by buying U.S. Treasury bonds as economic slowdown signals emerged, though rising oil prices took center stage. • Gold, silver, and bitcoin prices fell while crude surges from Iran conflict and distribution chokepoints overshadowed traditional safe-haven demand.

• The U.S. Energy Department announced plans Wednesday to loan an additional 10 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a 172 million-barrel drawdown. • West Texas Intermediate crude prices exceeded $112 per barrel due to ongoing Iran conflict disruptions, prompting the reserve release to curb domestic fuel costs. • Critics warn the extensive SPR drawdown heightens U.S. energy vulnerabilities during prolonged geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks through key chokepoints.

• U.S. equity markets closed for Good Friday, but S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, Dow futures dropped 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.4% early Friday after a robust March jobs report showing 178,000 additions and unemployment at 4.3%. • WTI crude surged 11.4% to $111.54 per barrel on Thursday amid fears of prolonged Iran conflict, while Brent crude jumped 7.8% to $109.03, with President Trump vowing continued U.S. attacks without an end timetable. • A BMI report warns extended Middle East conflict threatens infrastructure, disrupts Strait of Hormuz oil flows, and delays postwar recovery, spilling price impacts into later 2026.

• The US Labor Department reported that employers added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of 60,000 jobs polled by LSEG. • The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, lower than the projected 4.4%, with January revised up to 160,000 jobs and February down to 133,000. • This rebound follows February's unexpected job losses and signals labor market resilience despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

• The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% during its March 2026 meeting, marking the second consecutive session without adjustment. • Policymakers cited solid economic expansion despite subdued job gains and elevated inflation above target levels. • The decision reflects caution amid global volatility, including Middle East conflicts driving oil prices up over 40% and renewed US trade frictions.