World Bank cuts global growth outlook to 2.5%, warns of drop to 1.3% if war fallout spreads to markets
- On June 11, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5%, the lowest projection since the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic.
- The downgrade is primarily driven by the war in the Middle East, which has severely impacted energy exports for countries like Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.
- The bank warns that growth could plummet further to 1.3% if energy supply disruptions worsen and trigger substantial stress in global financial markets.
- While the 2026 outlook was cut by 0.1 percentage point from January estimates, the bank noted that 2025 global growth reached 2.9%, a slight increase over previous projections.
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