2026 Trading

• Risk-off sentiment dominated the Asia session on July 24, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and renewed global inflation concerns. • Canadian economic data showed consumer resilience, with retail sales rising 1.0% in May and further increases expected in June, supporting the CAD against the USD around 1.4070–1.4080. • The Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25% during its July 15, 2026 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold in a policy pause that started in late 2025.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar started Monday strong, though it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices. • The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight meeting, noting that inflation pressures are easing.

• U.S. markets are currently reacting to a surprisingly weak June employment report, which has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a patient approach toward further policy tightening. • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining flexibility to intervene in the government bond market or adjust operations to counter excessive yen fluctuations and ensure financial stability. • Japan's economy is experiencing moderate but uneven growth as of July 2026, driven by resilient domestic demand and corporate investment despite geopolitical tensions and weak global manufacturing.

• Anthropic successfully closed a $65 billion funding round in May 2026, reaching a post-money valuation of $965 billion. • The raise was supported by major venture firms including Sequoia, Greenoaks, Altimeter Capital, and Dragoneer, alongside strategic partners Amazon and Alphabet. • This massive capital injection supports the development of next-generation models, specifically Claude Fable 5 and Claude Opus 4.8, amid an intensifying AI battle with China's GLM-5.2.

• The KOSPI index fell 6.349% on Thursday, dropping below the 8,000 mark and triggering a sell-side sidecar trading halt at the market open. • The decline was primarily driven by losses in semiconductor stocks following a significant overnight selloff in the U.S. tech sector. • This event highlights record-breaking volatility for the Korean market in 2026, with the Korea Exchange pausing trading dozens of times throughout the year.

• The US stock market for the week of May 25, 2026, experienced a narrow rally primarily driven by mega-cap technology and AI-related stocks. • Market performance was heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which impacted oil prices and inflation expectations more than traditional economic indicators. • This trend highlights a shift toward a "wait-and-see" approach among investors, resulting in unpredictable price movements as they monitor geopolitical outcomes.