Blockade

• The United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC yesterday, marking a historic split from Saudi Arabia during the escalating regional crisis. • This decision coincides with the Strait of Hormuz being almost entirely shut down due to a US naval blockade aimed at halting Iranian oil exports. • The US is threatening to cut off major Chinese banks from its financial system to prevent processing of Iranian oil, intensifying global energy tensions.

Oil markets spooked as Donald Trump appears willing to maintain the US Navy blockade and Iran keeps strait of Hormuz all but shutThe price of Brent oil soared above $126 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since 2022, after Donald Trump warned the US blockade of Iranian ports could last months and peace talks remained stalled.Surging more than 13% in 24 hours, Brent crude hit a record price since the war began on 28 February. Not since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has Brent topped $120, with the price then peaking at $139. Continue reading...

• UN International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that the blockading of ships in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict has turned international shipping and seafarers into leverage in geopolitical disputes. • The crisis highlights how vessels and crews, not involved in the conflict, are being caught up in hostilities between the United States and Iran, disrupting global trade routes. • This development underscores critical weaknesses in global shipping networks, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and risks to maritime security worldwide.

• Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired by the Pentagon on Wednesday night amid escalating tensions with Iran over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. • The firing comes as the U.S. maintains military pressure on Iran, with reports indicating the blockade is costing Iran an estimated $500 million per day and pushing the regime toward economic collapse. • U.S. intelligence officials warn that Iran retains thousands of missiles and drones capable of threatening American interests in the region.

Battle of the blockades may still have more time to run as both the US and Iran try to assert control over the strait of HormuzDonald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender.In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April. Continue reading...

White House says Tehran in ‘very weak position’; Iran says two seized ships transferred to its coast; US navy secretary exiting post ‘effective immediately’, says Pentagon‘Impossible’ to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ‘flagrant’ ceasefire breaches, Iran saysWelcome to our live coverage of events in the Middle East.Iran has seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz a day after Donald Trump announced he was indefinitely calling off US attacks, while there is no sign of peace talks restarting.Trump was “satisfied” with the US naval blockade and “understands Iran is in a very weak position”, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. The US president had not set a deadline on Iran submitting a peace proposal, she said, after Trump on Tuesday said he was indefinitely extending the ceasefire at the request of mediator Pakistan until Tehran responded to the US’s negotiating positions or until talks were concluded “one way or the other”.The Pentagon announced that the US secretary of the navy, John Phelan, would depart the office “effective immediately”, without providing an explanation for his sudden exit. The US army’s top officer, Gen Randy George, and two other senior officers were removed earlier this month amid the continuing war with Iran.The US-Israeli war against Iran is “starting to weaken Europe”, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told his German counterpart. Erdoğan said: “If we do not address this situation with an approach that prioritises peace, the damage caused by the conflict will be far greater.”Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a Lebanese journalist, Amal Khalil, and wounded a photographer accompanying her, a senior Lebanese military official and Khalil’s employer said. The death of Khalil, 43, brought the death toll to five people on Wednesday – the deadliest day since a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah was announced on 16 April. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on Khalil’s death.Khalil and freelance photographer Zeinab Faraj were covering developments near the town of al-Tayri when an Israeli strike hit the vehicle in front of them, Reuters reported. They ran into a nearby house that was then also targeted by an Israeli strike, said Lebanon’s health ministry. Lebanese prime minister Nawaf Salam said Israeli targeting of journalists and obstructing relief effort constituted war crimes.Oil prices leapt 4% on Thursday after Iran vowed not to reopen the Hormuz strait amid the US naval blockade despite the truce extension. Around 0025 GMT, the benchmark US oil contract West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 4.06% to $96.73 a barrel, while the international oil benchmark Brent North Sea crude climbed 3.62% to $105.63. Both eased back minutes after.Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school amid mounting assaults on education in the territory, witnesses and local officials have said.United Airlines implemented broad-based rises of 15-20% on fares as it sought to offset the surge in petrol prices while protecting profits, executives said. The big US carrier has also cut its 2026 flying capacity by 5%. Continue reading...

Iran’s goal is to maintain chokehold on global economy even as some say it could run out of oil storage by SundayMiddle East crisis – live updatesDonald Trump’s indefinite shelving of the plan to bomb Iran’s bridges and power station on Tuesday night is being widely described as leaving the conflict in limbo, but that is anything but the truth.Pakistan insists the prospect of talks in Islamabad has not evaporated, and positive messages are still being exchanged, but in the meantime the site of kinetic activity has switched from land to sea. Both sides are vying to prove they can enforce their blockade of the strait of Hormuz more effectively than the other. It has become a form of gunboat diplomacy brought to life in the most significant geopolitical waterway in the world. Continue reading...