Conflict 2026

• Following US-Israel strikes and subsequent Iranian counter-strikes, a broader conflict has escalated involving Israel and Hezbollah. • On 28 February 2026, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer issued a joint statement with the leaders of France and Germany condemning Iran's military actions. • The UK response emphasizes the urgent need for a resumption of diplomacy to prevent further regional destabilization.

• Diplomatic efforts are underway to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following closures linked to the 2026 Israel/US-Iran conflict. • The strait serves as a critical global maritime chokepoint, essential for the transport of oil, gas, and other vital supplies. • Restoring access is a priority to stabilize global energy markets and prevent widespread economic disruption caused by supply shortages.

• Pakistan and Afghanistan remain locked in deadly border clashes in 2026, with Islamabad blaming the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for ongoing attacks. • The Taliban government in Kabul has countered these claims by accusing Pakistan of conducting airstrikes and orchestrating the mass expulsion of refugees. • The conflict has triggered a worsening humanitarian crisis in the region, further destabilizing the border areas.

• IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% due to US-Iran conflict impacts. • The cut assumes contained conflict with 19% energy price rise, but escalation could drop growth to 2%. • 2027 outlook held at 3.2%, with effects expected to ease by mid-2026.