Crises

• The Iranian clerical establishment is experiencing a period of systemic volatility and intense internal political friction. • High-level administrative infighting has escalated into an overt political war centered on the regime's approach to international diplomacy. • These deepening vulnerabilities expose critical weaknesses within the regime's leadership structure during a time of multi-front crises.

• Israel's military campaigns in Gaza have expanded into Lebanon, Iran, and the Gulf, fueled by significant financial and military support from the United States. • The escalation threatens to trigger a prolonged international disorder if diplomatic efforts fail to halt the current trajectory of regional conflict. • Energy-dependent developing nations face severe risks, as rising fuel costs are expected to drive up food prices, increase fiscal deficits, and spark social instability.

Energy specialists say abandoning net zero and increasing oil and gas drilling would cause more instability for BritonsAbandoning net zero and drilling for more oil and gas in the North Sea would be a massive setback for the UK and would not help the economy, leading experts have said in response to claims by the former prime minister Tony Blair.“This is a bizarre intervention to make during the worst May heatwave on record and when the Iran crisis is providing yet more evidence of the enormous costs of oil and gas,” said Ed Matthew, the UK programme director at the E3G thinktank. “Clean energy is cheaper energy - it protects our bills from prices skyrocketing, its running costs are virtually zero, and it doesn’t cause climate change which threatens economic collapse ... The government should ignore Blair’s ideological nonsense and focus on what works.” Continue reading...

Jonathan Jackson of Illinois calls Cuba ‘most sanctioned part of Earth’ amid US oil blockade causing vast disruptionsSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxTwo Democratic US lawmakers on Monday called for a permanent solution to crises confronting Cuba after they visited the island to witness the effects of an American energy blockade. US House members Pramila Jayapal of Washington and Jonathan Jackson of Illinois met with Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel and foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez as well as members of Cuba’s parliament during a five-day trip ending on Sunday.“I denounced the criminal damage caused by the blockade, particularly the consequences of the energy siege decreed by the current US government and its threats of even more aggressive actions,” Díaz-Canel wrote on X. Continue reading...

Fatih Birol says world is losing 11m barrels of oil per day, more than the 1973 and 1979 energy shocks combined; IRGC threatens to completely close strait of Hormuz if Trump acts on infrastructure threatsIran vows to destroy Middle East water and energy facilities if US attacks power plantsAFP is reporting that stocks have fallen while oil prices rose after Donald Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats over the key strait of Hormuz and Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks.The escalation hammered stock markets, with Seoul and Tokyo – which had been the standout performers before the war started – taking the brunt of the selling, shedding as much as six and five percent, respectively, at one point.Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said “threats and terror” are strengthening Iranian unity, after Donald Trump yesterday warned he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the strait of Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours.The price of oil increased early on Monday after Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or face decimation of its energy infrastructure – and Israel warned the war would continue for several more weeks. Shortly after the 2200 GMT open, the price of West Texas Intermediate – the US benchmark crude – for May delivery was up 1.8% to just over $100 a barrel, before retreating slightly.The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, gave an interview to NBC News earlier today. When asked if Trump was “winding” down the war or “escalating” it, Bessent said: “They are not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.”In the same NBC interview, Bessent said the US government has “plenty of money” to fund the war against Iran, but is requesting supplemental funding from Congress to ensure the military is well supplied in the future.Lebanon’s health ministry said Sunday that 118 children and 79 women are among those killed, and at least 2,786 others have been wounded, according to the Associated Press. The country’s death toll as of Saturday was 1,024 people.The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said he hopes to “re-establish” talks between Iran and the US about Tehran’s nuclear program despite the escalating nature of the conflict. “I’ve been having important conversations here at the White House, and also with Iran. There are some contacts, and we hope to be able to reestablish that line,” Grossi told CBS News.UK prime minister Keir Starmer and US president Trump spoke by phone Sunday evening, according to a statement from the UK government. “The leaders discussed the current situation in the Middle East, and in particular, the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to resume global shipping.”Pope Leo on Sunday said death and suffering caused by the war in the Middle East are a “scandal to the whole human family”, as he once again pleaded for an immediate ceasefire. “We cannot remain silent in the face of the suffering of so many people, the defenseless victims of these conflicts. What hurts them hurts the whole of humanity,” Leo said at his weekly Angelus prayer in St. Peter’s Square. Continue reading...