Economists

De-escalation of war in the Middle East has lowered oil prices and eased fears of economic downturn but households are still feeling the pinchGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastFears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying that Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of sub-standard growth in the year ahead.The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios contemplated before Donald Trump’s wobbly ceasefire with Iran was announced in mid-June. Continue reading...

Despite plunging fuel prices, trimmed mean inflation increased from an annual pace of 3.4% to 3.6%Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAustralia’s inflation challenge is far from over and more Reserve Bank rate hikes remain on the cards, economists warn, even after a plunging petrol costs drove an unexpected fall in consumer price growth in the year to May.Annual inflation dropped to 4%, from 4.2% in the year to April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, dragged down in large part thanks to a nearly 12% drop in fuel prices in the month of May. Continue reading...

Sharon Graham is urged to withdraw her claim that the energy secretary would cost jobs if he became chancellorMore than 40 progressive economists have written to Sharon Graham, the leader of Unite, rejecting her claim that Ed Miliband would destroy jobs if he becomes the next chancellor.With Andy Burnham almost certain to be prime minister within weeks, there is a fierce debate within Labour about who should succeed Rachel Reeves at the Treasury, with Miliband considered a frontrunner. Continue reading...

One Nation leader appears to suggest women should not be paid by employers while on maternity leave and calls for family income splittingGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastOne Nation could wind back the clock by decades for working mothers, damage productivity and worsen gender inequality, economists have warned.In a controversial address to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Pauline Hanson seemed to suggest women should not get paid by their employers while on maternity leave. She also hinted at major changes to the childcare system, and called for income splitting for families to help incentivise a parent staying home with their children. Continue reading...

Labour mayor giving advisory roles to ex-Bank of England economist and others seen as attempt to reassure marketsMakerfield byelection – latest updatesThree economic heavyweights have been brought in to advise Andy Burnham as he attempts to reassure the markets before his possible return to parliament on Friday and challenge to Keir Starmer.Burnham is understood to be getting advice from Andy Haldane, a former Bank of England chief economist, as well as Richard Hughes, a former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility and Jim O’Neill, a crossbench peer and former Treasury minister who worked on George Osborne’s Northern Powerhouse. Continue reading...

• Bank of Baroda economists warn that the escalating crisis in West Asia could cost India approximately ₹2.1 trillion. • The financial impact is primarily driven by rising global oil prices and an increased subsidy burden on the government. • These economic pressures threaten to widen India's fiscal deficit and negatively weigh on the national growth outlook for FY27.

Parties accused of ‘fiscal denial’ and failing to tell voters the scale of the challengeThe next Scottish government will need to make “really difficult” spending decisions soon after taking power, including tackling its large public sector pay bill, senior economists have said.Economists with the Fraser of Allander Institute, at the University of Strathclyde, believe the manifestos published by Scotland’s political parties during the campaign failed to tell voters about the true scale of the challenge. Continue reading...

Fuel tax cuts also risk adding to inflation by enabling some households with enough income to spend moreFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastFuel excise cuts would be a “political band-aid” that could worsen petrol shortages and add to inflation, economists have warned.The mining billionaire Gina Rinehart, Tasmania’s state premier and Liberal opposition leaders in New South Wales and Victoria have called for the Albanese government to cut the excise on petrol and diesel. Continue reading...