Europe Fundamental

• Risk-off sentiment dominated the Asia session on July 24, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and renewed global inflation concerns. • Canadian economic data showed consumer resilience, with retail sales rising 1.0% in May and further increases expected in June, supporting the CAD against the USD around 1.4070–1.4080. • The Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25% during its July 15, 2026 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold in a policy pause that started in late 2025.

• The Australian June Labour Market Report released during the Asian session on July 23, 2026, showed results significantly stronger than market expectations. • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to monitor the franc, maintaining the option for foreign-exchange intervention to prevent excessive appreciation from threatening price stability. • Recent SNB commentary suggests the franc has depreciated, which has eased financial conditions and provided support for overall economic activity.

• The Asia session was primarily influenced by Japanese trade data, a weakening Japanese yen, and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • Key market drivers for July 22, 2026, include the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report and high-profile U.S. corporate earnings. • These events are expected to impact the volatility of the U.S. dollar, equity indices, Treasury yields, and safe-haven assets.

• Investor sentiment improved during the Asia session on July 21, 2026, following reports of proposed international mediation for a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. • The news eased immediate market concerns regarding potential energy supply disruptions, causing crude oil prices to retreat from their recent highs. • Asian equity markets saw a recovery as a result of the geopolitical optimism, with notable gains recorded in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar remains firm following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting. • The Bank of Canada adopted a balanced tone, noting that while inflation pressures are easing, economic growth is projected to strengthen later in the year.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar started Monday strong, though it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices. • The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight meeting, noting that inflation pressures are easing.