Flashing

• Veteran market strategist Jim Paulsen warns that the S&P 500's rapid pace of earnings growth may be nearing an end. • Paulsen identifies five specific signals suggesting a slowdown, noting that cyclical stock performance historically serves as a leading indicator for profit trends. • This warning matters as investors rely on earnings growth to justify current market valuations and sustain the ongoing rally.

• Investors are monitoring how the Middle East crisis may trigger oil price spikes, potentially forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts and strengthen the U.S. dollar. • Japan and South Korea face significant currency risks as they raise domestic interest rates to combat inflation driven by oil shocks originating in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia. • This dynamic is critical because raising the cost of capital does little to offset currency exposure to dollar-priced commodities, creating a volatile environment for Asian markets.

• JPMorgan has issued a warning regarding a growing divergence in the AI trade, noting that hardware stocks are soaring while investors abandon other key market pillars. • This trend mirrors a warning signal that preceded the dot-com crash, suggesting a potential imbalance in current market valuations. • AI hardware and memory stocks have seen massive gains, highlighted by the Roundhill Memory ETF, which has risen 141% since its inception in April.

• Three historical factors that preceded double-digit stock-market declines are present simultaneously in 2026, according to DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, signaling heightened risk for U.S. equity investors. • The S&P 500 has dropped 4.7% in March alone and is down 4.2% year-to-date, on track for its worst monthly performance since March 2025 and first quarterly loss since Q1 2025. • Despite warning signs, Colas maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating there is still time to avoid a double-digit loss if Middle East tensions de-escalate swiftly and crude-oil prices decline.