Image: Economics ObservatoryWorld Cup 2026 final group matches update: is football coming home? - Economics Observatory
• As the final round of group matches for the 2026 World Cup begins, Argentina has emerged as the favorite to win the trophy with a 31% probability. • Other top contenders include Spain at 13%, France at 11%, and England at 9%, though England's quarterfinal chances vary from 30% to 50% depending on their group ranking. • Despite their lead, Argentina faces a 41% chance of elimination by opponents such as Cape Verde, Australia, Belgium, Paraguay, Colombia, or Portugal.
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