Forecast

• Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 54.8, slightly missing the forecasted value of 54.9. • The reading indicates continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, as any figure above 50.0 signals growth. • This data is critical for economists and FX experts to gauge the health of Japan's industrial output and potential monetary policy shifts.

• Investors are focusing on Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s upcoming speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra. • The market is seeking signals regarding the Bank of England's stance on future interest rate hikes. • A more cautious approach toward further rate increases could boost interest-rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate, housebuilders, and consumer discretionary.

• The UK stock market, including the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, and FTSE All-Share, is expected to open on a positive note following a streak of six consecutive quarterly gains. • Market optimism is being driven by easing inflation rates and a notable increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity across various sectors. • The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) is highlighted as a key stock to watch, currently trading near 8,076 GBX with a "Strong Buy" consensus and a 12-month target of 12,145 GBX.

• Europe is experiencing a severe heatwave with temperatures soaring to 40°C in several regions, placing immense strain on healthcare systems and infrastructure. • France has reported nearly 1,000 excess deaths attributed to the relentless heat, highlighting the critical public health impact of the extreme weather. • Current forecasts indicate varying conditions across the continent, with scorching heat persisting in Italy and Spain, while the Netherlands remains pleasantly warm.

Red warnings issued as record-breaking heatwave pushes east, with authorities urging people to stay indoorsParts of central, eastern and southern Europe sweltered on Monday as the “heat dome” behind last week’s record-breaking temperatures shifted east, bringing dangerous conditions to a new swathe of the continent.Budapest is forecast to exceed 40C on Tuesday, according to models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Belgrade and Bucharest reached 38C and 37C respectively on Monday as the heatwave, which has been linked to hundreds of deaths in western Europe, moved east. Continue reading...

• Ram Singh, Director of the Delhi School of Economics, stated that the easing of conflict in West Asia has reduced the downside risks to India's 6.6% growth forecast. • Growth prospects may be further bolstered by the moderation of El Nino effects and the resolution of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. • The operationalization of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 37 countries is expected to drive economic expansion by boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports.

• Wholesale inventories remained steady with a reported figure of 0.3%, precisely matching the projections set by market analysts. • This stability indicates that wholesalers are maintaining a balanced approach to inventory management amidst a cautious economic environment. • The alignment between the actual data and forecasts suggests that current supply chain and stock levels are meeting market expectations.

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has surpassed both previous readings and market forecasts, signaling stronger-than-expected economic resilience. • This index is a critical metric for investors and policymakers as it tracks consumer attitudes that directly influence national spending and saving behaviors. • The unexpected rise in sentiment may spark increased market optimism and could potentially shift current investment strategies.

Scientists say hot spell is worst ever, with nearly half of region’s 850 largest cities facing unprecedented heat stress The number of deaths in France linked to the heatwave has climbed to four toddlers and more than 55 drownings, as the brutally hot conditions sweeping Europe were forecast to shift east, choking 150 million people under 35C (95F) temperatures.Scientists said the heatwave was the most severe and widespread ever, leaving nearly half of the region’s 850 largest cities grappling with unprecedented heat stress. They said the extreme temperatures had been made possible by the climate crisis driven by fossil fuel burning. Continue reading...

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is addressing a complex economic narrative as U.S. inflation reaches a three-year high due to energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. • The Cleveland Fed's proprietary forecasting tool predicts a modest decline in overall prices for June, offering a glimmer of optimism for Wall Street. • Despite the projected dip, the situation remains precarious because a key inflationary indicator used by the central bank continues to stay stubbornly high.

• South Korea's Kospi index surged more than 5 per cent on Thursday, June 25, leading a broader tech-driven rally across Asian markets. • The surge was triggered by a forecast-busting earnings report from U.S. chip giant Micron, which eased investor concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI investment boom. • Market gains were further supported by a significant plunge in oil prices, creating a more favorable environment for regional traders.

• European stock markets opened higher as technology shares surged, reigniting a rally centered on artificial intelligence. • The positive momentum was triggered by upbeat financial forecasts from US chipmakers Micron and Qualcomm, which helped alleviate investor concerns regarding inflated valuations. • Gains were primarily concentrated in the semiconductor sector, with chipmakers and equipment suppliers leading the upward trend.

• Micron and Qualcomm released positive financial forecasts, triggering a massive $400 billion rally across AI-related chip stocks. • The surge is driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory and AI-capable processors as companies integrate artificial intelligence into consumer devices. • This rally underscores the critical role of hardware infrastructure in the AI boom, signaling robust investor confidence in the semiconductor sector's growth.

• Forty people have drowned in France as citizens sought relief from a severe heatwave currently gripping Europe. • Spain's meteorological agency issued red alerts after temperatures peaked above 45℃ in Andujar on June 22, 2026, with forecasts predicting further highs of 44℃. • The extreme heat is disrupting daily life across the continent, forcing a primary school in Tervuren, Belgium, to move final exams to a church.

• Eurofiber forecasts its 2026 revenues to reach approximately EUR 361 million, representing a EUR 12 million increase over the previous year. • This growth is driven by the strategic expansion of the company's fiber optic footprint across France and Germany. • The company expects capital expenditure to decrease by an estimated EUR 8 million, bringing the total down to EUR 203 million.

Rail services, schools and sports events hit, with deaths of three elderly people in France partly blamed on intense heatWestern Europe is enduring a ferocious heatwave forecast to break temperature records, with half of France on red alert, rail services in Belgium disrupted and sports events in Spain and Germany cancelled or postponed.French authorities on Monday placed 49 of the country’s 96 mainland departments on a level 1 danger-to-life warning, urging 35 million people to exercise “absolute vigilance”, drink water often, avoid all strenuous exertion and avoid direct sun. Continue reading...

• UK inflation dropped to 2.8% in April 2026, performing better than initial forecasts. • Economic experts predict a rebound in inflation, expecting it to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year. • The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the number of payrolled employees steadily decreasing since mid-2024.

El Niño events linked with extreme weather around the world – and can increase risk of bushfires in Australia and coral bleaching on Great Barrier ReefFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Niño – the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia – is now locked in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean.The bureau warned climate change would amplify the effects on Australia, including the risk of extreme heat and bushfires. Continue reading...

• Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for India's 2026 Current Account Deficit (CAD) to 1.3% of GDP. • The revision is driven by India's reduced vulnerability to crude oil price hikes, attributed to lower oil intensity and improved energy efficiency. • This shift suggests that India's oil demand has become more responsive to price increases, potentially stabilizing the economy against global energy volatility.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high of 51,370 before experiencing a sharp decline of 1,151 points over a two-day period. • The index is heavily influenced by financial services (27%), technology (17.4%), and industrials (17.1%), featuring major components like Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, and Boeing. • This volatility is significant because the DJI reacts instantly to Federal Reserve decisions and economic data, often serving as a leading indicator for the broader market.

• The US economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Employment growth was primarily driven by gains in health care, local government, and the leisure and hospitality sectors, while financial activities saw a decline. • This stronger-than-expected job growth is fueling market bets that the Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

• Analysts are providing short-term price forecasts for Gold (XAU/USD) covering the next 24 hours, one week, and 30 days. • The analysis utilizes a combination of technical chart patterns from H1 to H4 time frames, fundamental economic data, and social media sentiment. • Price movements are expected to be driven primarily by geopolitical developments and shifting investor sentiment.

Commonwealth Bank economists expect 5% drag on home prices from tax changes, compared with Treasury forecast of 2%. Follow today’s news liveGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastGood morning and welcome to our live politics blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it will be Krishani Dhanji with the main action.Australia’s youngest convicted murderer has been sent back to jail after a judge found him to have had complete disregard for his release conditions. The man, known only as SLD, stabbed to death his three-year-old neighbour Courtney Morley-Clarke on the Central Coast in 2001. More coming up. Continue reading...

• The OECD has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is damaging worldwide economic prospects. • A more severe economic shock is predicted if an effective ceasefire is not reached before 2027, though some impacts may be offset by tighter fiscal policies and the end of the NextGenerationEU recovery spending. • Specifically in the United Kingdom, growth is projected to drop from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026.

• The EU's Spring Economic Forecast predicts a slowdown in economic activity across the European Union due to rising inflation. • This downturn is attributed to an energy shock triggered by the recent outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, which drove up energy commodity prices. • The situation is critical as it highlights the vulnerability of the EU economy to geopolitical instability and volatile energy markets.

Temperatures expected to reach as high as 33C in southern England or Midlands on MondayAmber heat health alerts have been issued for the bank holiday weekend as record-breaking May temperatures as high as 33C (91F) are expected in parts of the UK.The alerts – which indicate a possible risk to life as well as potential damage to properties, significant travel delays and power cuts – were announced for the East Midlands, West Midlands, the east of England, London and the south-east, and will be in effect from 2pm on Friday until 5pm on Wednesday. Continue reading...

Figure comes amid rising cost of pensions as bond market jitters take monthly debt interest to £10.3bn Business live – latest updatesThe UK borrowed more than expected in April as high inflation drove up the cost of pensions and benefits, amid concern over the Iran war and political uncertainty adding to debt costs.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector net borrowing – the difference between government spending and income – was £24.3bn in April 2026, £4.9bn higher than in April 2025. Continue reading...

Cornwall Insight predicts rise in price cap of nearly 13% in Great Britain as Iran war pushes up gas costsBusiness live – latest updatesHouseholds in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by over £200 a year to almost £1,900 from this summer in “a kick in the teeth” for millions struggling with the cost of living crisis.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,850 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...