Forecast

• Analysts are providing short-term price forecasts for Gold (XAU/USD) covering the next 24 hours, one week, and 30 days. • The analysis utilizes a combination of technical chart patterns from H1 to H4 time frames, fundamental economic data, and social media sentiment. • Price movements are expected to be driven primarily by geopolitical developments and shifting investor sentiment.

Commonwealth Bank economists expect 5% drag on home prices from tax changes, compared with Treasury forecast of 2%. Follow today’s news liveGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastGood morning and welcome to our live politics blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it will be Krishani Dhanji with the main action.Australia’s youngest convicted murderer has been sent back to jail after a judge found him to have had complete disregard for his release conditions. The man, known only as SLD, stabbed to death his three-year-old neighbour Courtney Morley-Clarke on the Central Coast in 2001. More coming up. Continue reading...

• The OECD has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is damaging worldwide economic prospects. • A more severe economic shock is predicted if an effective ceasefire is not reached before 2027, though some impacts may be offset by tighter fiscal policies and the end of the NextGenerationEU recovery spending. • Specifically in the United Kingdom, growth is projected to drop from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026.

• The EU's Spring Economic Forecast predicts a slowdown in economic activity across the European Union due to rising inflation. • This downturn is attributed to an energy shock triggered by the recent outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, which drove up energy commodity prices. • The situation is critical as it highlights the vulnerability of the EU economy to geopolitical instability and volatile energy markets.

Temperatures expected to reach as high as 33C in southern England or Midlands on MondayAmber heat health alerts have been issued for the bank holiday weekend as record-breaking May temperatures as high as 33C (91F) are expected in parts of the UK.The alerts – which indicate a possible risk to life as well as potential damage to properties, significant travel delays and power cuts – were announced for the East Midlands, West Midlands, the east of England, London and the south-east, and will be in effect from 2pm on Friday until 5pm on Wednesday. Continue reading...

Figure comes amid rising cost of pensions as bond market jitters take monthly debt interest to £10.3bn Business live – latest updatesThe UK borrowed more than expected in April as high inflation drove up the cost of pensions and benefits, amid concern over the Iran war and political uncertainty adding to debt costs.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector net borrowing – the difference between government spending and income – was £24.3bn in April 2026, £4.9bn higher than in April 2025. Continue reading...

Cornwall Insight predicts rise in price cap of nearly 13% in Great Britain as Iran war pushes up gas costsBusiness live – latest updatesHouseholds in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by over £200 a year to almost £1,900 from this summer in “a kick in the teeth” for millions struggling with the cost of living crisis.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,850 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...

Use of AI is a valuable tool for weather prediction but only when it’s trained with ample data, experts sayAs the US prepares for hurricane season and a summer of record-breaking heat, experts fear the Trump administration’s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make the federal government’s weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) late last year launched a suite of artificial intelligence-powered global weather forecast models which it said would improve “speed, efficiency, and accuracy”. In March, an agency official said those models are being trained with centuries of weather data. Continue reading...

• China’s economy slowed in April, with industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all missing expectations as global energy-market volatility added pressure. • Retail sales rose just 0.2% year on year, down from 1.7% in March, while industrial output increased 4.1%, below the 5.63% forecast cited by economists. • National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said the economy had “generally speaking” maintained steady growth, but warned the external environment remained “complex and volatile.”

• A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE:AOS) reported first-quarter 2026 earnings per share that fell short of analyst expectations on April 30, with China market headwinds cited as a key factor in the miss. • The water heater and treatment systems manufacturer faced margin pressure and demand challenges in its largest growth market, impacting overall profitability. • The earnings miss signals broader challenges for U.S. manufacturers with significant China exposure amid ongoing trade tensions and slowing regional growth.

• Olympic Circuit Technology, a Chinese tech firm traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE:603920), has demonstrated robust growth with revenue forecasts of 29.5% and earnings forecasts of 45.6%, significantly exceeding broader Chinese market averages as of May 2026. • The company's growth metrics position it among high-performing tech stocks in Asia, reflecting strong operational performance and market confidence in its business model and expansion strategy. • The outperformance relative to the broader Chinese market indicates Olympic Circuit Technology's competitive advantages and operational efficiency in a challenging economic environment.

Halifax says cost of typical home fell by 0.1% in April, the second consecutive monthly drop, with pace of annual growth down from 0.8%. to 0.4%Business news – live updates UK house prices fell for a second consecutive month in April, as Halifax halved its estimate for the annual rate of growth due to the conflict in the Middle East.Halifax, which is part of Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender – said that the cost of a typical UK home fell by 0.1% in April, to £299,313. This followed a 0.5% fall in March. Continue reading...

• UBS, a Switzerland-based global financial firm, has lowered its GDP growth forecast for India in FY27 to 6.2 percent, representing a downward revision of 50 basis points due to intensifying oil crisis triggered by global tensions. • The Swiss brokerage attributes the slowdown to prolonged energy crisis stemming from Middle East conflict, severe supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation pressures across the Indian economy. • This downgrade reflects concerns about India's economic resilience amid external shocks, though the 6.2% growth rate still positions India among faster-growing major economies globally.

Labor’s 2026-27 budget shows state has recorded $700m surplus this financial year, first of its kind since before the Covid-19 pandemicGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastVictoria is back in black for the first time since the start of the pandemic, with Tuesday’s state budget to deliver an operating surplus and forecasting another next financial year.The 2026-27 budget, to be handed down on Tuesday afternoon, will show the state recorded a $700m surplus in 2025-26, largely in line with December’s pre-budget update of $710m and an improvement on the $611m forecast last May. Continue reading...

Move comes as airline industry reacts to uncertainty over Iran war and increase in price of Brent crudeBusiness live – latest updatesAir France-KLM has cut its capacity growth forecasts for this year as the Iran war drives up its fuel costs by billions of dollars.The French-Dutch airline expects its fuel bill to increase by $2.4bn (£1.8bn) this year as a result of the surge in costs since the Middle East conflict began. In response, it has trimmed its expectations for capacity growth to between 2% and 4% this year, down from 3% to 5% previously. Continue reading...

Robert Hayward predicts Reform will be big winner, taking seats from both Labour and the ConservativesGood morning. We are now into the final week of campaigning for the Scottish parliament, Welsh Senedd and English local elections. Keir Starmer had been planning a big speech today, but he, and other political leaders, are today focusing on their response to the Golders Green stabbing and the antisemitism threat facing Britain’s Jewish community – described as a “national security emergency” by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terror legislation. Here is our overnight story. And here is our live blog by Taz Ali.Taz will be covering most of the political reaction to that story, and so that won’t be something I will be covering here. (And because criminal proceedings are active, comments relating to the attack won’t be allowed below the line, I’m afraid.) Continue reading...

Bank expects its base case for GDP growth to be 0.5% this year, lower than IMF’s 0.8% prediction for BritainBusiness live – latest updatesLloyds has warned that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could cost it £151m amid rising unemployment and inflation and a slowdown in the housing market.The FTSE 100 group, whose brands include Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, issued a downbeat economic forecast that it said reflects the stagflationary consequences – the double hit of rising inflation at the same time as slower economic growth – for the UK and global economies. Continue reading...

Severe storms put nearly 50 million at risk and follow a deadly weekend after tornado killed two people in TexasSevere storms are expected to sweep across the mid-Mississippi valley and midwest regions of the US on Monday, putting nearly 50 million people at risk.The storm prediction center has issued a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across south-west Illinois and south-east Missouri, including major cities such as St Louis. Forecasters warned of “multiple strong to intense tornadoes, widespread severe/damaging wind gusts and scattered large to very large hail”, with some hail potentially reaching baseball size. Continue reading...

Queensland and NSW set for lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, while temperatures in most of the country likely to be higher than normalFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastLarge parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures. Continue reading...

• Nvidia shares jumped 5% in extended trading after a strong AI forecast, positioning the company to gain $220 billion in market value amid easing bubble concerns. • The stock had dropped nearly 8% in November following a 1,200% surge over three years, but positive results calmed investor jitters. • This development underscores Nvidia's role as AI market bellwether and highlights sustained demand for its chips.

Firm had to repatriate almost 12,000 guests and staff, including from two cruise ships in Abu Dhabi and DohaThe Iran war has cost the travel company Tui €40m (£34.7m) so far, including repatriating almost 12,000 holidaymakers and staff, and forced it to cut its profit forecast for this year.Europe’s biggest holiday operator said that it had taken the hit in March owing to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, as it was forced to bring home 5,000 guests from two cruise ships anchored in ports in Abu Dhabi and Doha. Continue reading...

• IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% due to US-Iran conflict impacts. • The cut assumes contained conflict with 19% energy price rise, but escalation could drop growth to 2%. • 2027 outlook held at 3.2%, with effects expected to ease by mid-2026.

Thousands face power outages and a number of schools close across region as forecasters warn of hail and floodingSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxA day after severe storms damaged communities in the Plains and the midwest, forecasters warned that storms could bring giant hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts to the regions again on Tuesday afternoon and evening.Authorities in Kansas reported several people with minor injuries after storms passed through on Monday. Three people were left with minor injuries in rural Franklin county, about 50 miles (80km) south-west of Kansas City, according to the sheriff’s office. In the town of Ottawa, officials said there was structural damage, but no deaths or injuries. A National Weather Service survey team will assess damage in the Ottawa area on Tuesday to determine whether a tornado passed through there, according to Chelsea Picha, a meteorologist with the weather service’s office in Topeka. Continue reading...

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at GTC 2026 that demand for the company's products will reach $1 trillion through 2027, with fulfillment only possible by 2028. • The revelation underscores explosive growth in AI hardware needs, driven by data center expansions and model training. • Nvidia also released NemoClaw, an open-source stack enhancing privacy and security for the popular OpenClaw AI agent.

Category 3 cyclone is moving south of Fiji towards New Zealand, with winds at centre in excess of 150km/hTropical Cyclone Vaianu forming in the Pacific could bring life-threatening winds and heavy rain to New Zealand later this week, forecasters have said, with strong wind watches issued for the entire North Island.The category 3 cyclone is moving south of Fiji towards New Zealand, with winds around the centre in excess of 150km/h, MetService said on Wednesday. Continue reading...

The Bureau of Meteorology says a blend of fine days and showers expected for most capital cities over the coming daysFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastMany Australians can expect mild temperatures and a chance of showers over the Easter weekend, while meteorologists predict a cyclone will form in the Coral Sea on Sunday.The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a blend of fine days and showers for most capital cities over the coming days. Continue reading...

Meteorologists issue yellow weather warning, with gusts of up to 90mph expected in some areasThe northern half of the UK is expected to face gale force winds over the Easter weekend, with forecasters warning of possible travel disruption and power cuts, stemming from a “significant cold plunge from Canada into the North Atlantic”.The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for very strong winds in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of north Wales and northern England from 6pm on Saturday until midday on Sunday. Continue reading...

Consumers brace for ‘awful April’ and Iran war cost hikes, which have pushed UK’s gas market past three-year highs Households in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by about £290 a year to almost £2,000 from this summer in a “tough pill to swallow” for consumers already braced for a volley of “awful April” cost hikes from Wednesday.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,929 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...