Forecast

• Investor sentiment improved during the Asia session on July 21, 2026, following reports of proposed international mediation for a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. • The news eased immediate market concerns regarding potential energy supply disruptions, causing crude oil prices to retreat from their recent highs. • Asian equity markets saw a recovery as a result of the geopolitical optimism, with notable gains recorded in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI.

• Foreign investors have sold a record 160 trillion won (approximately $108.1 billion) of South Korean stocks year-to-date, marking the heaviest sell-off on record. • Despite this trend, analysts forecast a Kospi rebound for late July, though several risks persist, including a stronger U.S. dollar and weakening AI and semiconductor investment sentiment. • Economic concerns include peaking export growth and a projected slowdown in South Korea's GDP growth rate, which is expected to drop from 2.7% in 2026 to 2.1% in 2027.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar remains firm following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting. • The Bank of Canada adopted a balanced tone, noting that while inflation pressures are easing, economic growth is projected to strengthen later in the year.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar started Monday strong, though it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices. • The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight meeting, noting that inflation pressures are easing.

• The EUR/USD currency pair rose to approximately 1.1445 during early European trading on Monday, driven by a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). • Despite the upward movement, the pair remains capped below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a technical ceiling for the current rally. • Market focus is shifting toward critical economic data from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, which collectively represent 75% of the Eurozone's economy.

• The FTSE 100 is projected to open slightly lower on July 20 as investors react to global market weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • Market participants are closely analyzing oil price fluctuations and corporate earnings reports to gauge the current state of global economic growth. • Investors are prioritizing upcoming economic data from China and the United States, specifically focusing on inflation trends and their impact on interest rates.

• Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) dropped 1.61% this morning, driven by a deepening global selloff in semiconductor stocks and a decline in Netflix shares following a disappointing forecast. • Economic indicators for June are expected to show a downturn, with the import price index projected to fall 0.7% m/m and the export price index to decrease 0.4% m/m. • The market volatility comes as investors await earnings reports from other major companies, including regional bank Truist Financial and insurer Travelers (TRV).

• The EUR/USD currency pair has remained stagnant recently, fluctuating around the 1.1450 mark as investors adopt a cautious stance. • Market volatility is being driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) decision. • Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the pair trading below both the 100-day SMA (1.1585) and the 200-day SMA (1.1641).

Most Australian capital cities have at least 80% chance of unusually warm and dry spring as climatologists watch developing system with increasing alarmGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe El Niño climate phenomenon linked to record global temperatures and now locked in place in the Pacific Ocean could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.Climatologists are watching the strengthening El Niño with increasing alarm, saying the forecasts from climate models in the coming months are “mind blowing” and “astounding”. Continue reading...

• China's GDP growth in the second quarter slowed to its lowest pace in three and a half years, missing market expectations. • The year-on-year growth rate marks the slowest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2022. • This cooling indicates a significant slowdown in China's economic momentum, raising concerns about the country's overall recovery trajectory.

• ASML, Europe's largest company by market capitalization, has raised its 2026 total net sales forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion. • The Veldhoven-based firm also increased its projected gross margin to between 54% and 56%, up from the previous estimate of 51% to 53%. • This upgrade reflects the company's continued growth driven by the global AI boom, causing its share price to rise by more than 5%.

• Asian stock markets showed mixed results, highlighted by a significant rally where South Korea's KOSPI jumped nearly 6%. • Other regional indices, including Japan's Nikkei, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Australia's ASX 200, also recorded gains. • In contrast, China's Shanghai Composite remained largely unchanged following reports that the country's GDP growth failed to meet forecasts.

• A new report by Sonata Software claims that building AI-ready data platforms allows enterprises to consolidate data from various business functions into a single, trusted system. • These platforms are designed to reduce manual labor, enhance the accuracy of forecasting, and accelerate the overall business decision-making process. • This shift matters as it enables companies to leverage integrated data more effectively to maintain a competitive edge through AI-driven insights.

• IBM shares plummeted 26% to $228 after the company reported Q2 revenue of $17.2 billion, which fell short of market estimates. • CEO Arvind Krishna attributed the decline to customers limiting their spending, triggering the stock's largest intraday drop since the 1980s. • The results had a ripple effect across the tech sector, causing other software firms to experience losses.

• Ten financial experts provided forecasts for the second half of 2026, focusing on inflation, housing, and stock market trends. • Consumer sentiment is mixed, with 22% of respondents reporting improved ability to cover expenses, while 33% saw a deterioration. • BofA Global Research predicts that inflation will not decelerate enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing further interest-rate hikes.

• The IMF reports that top AI hardware exporters, including South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand, outperformed growth forecasts by an average of 4.4 percentage points in Q1. • South Korea saw significant success, with an annualized growth rate of 7.5%—over four times the 1.8% projection—as semiconductor exports offset high energy costs. • Vietnam's 2026 growth forecast was raised by 0.4 percentage point to 7.5% due to the surge in technology exports.

July update projects GDP growth of 1% this year, making UK the third fastest-growing economy in the G7The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK, while leaving those for other G7 countries weaker or unchanged, amid hopes the economic impact of the Iran war may be less severe than feared.In a July update of its World Economic Outlook, which was finalised before the latest outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, the Washington-based organisation projected UK gross domestic product to grow by 1% this year – up 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast. Continue reading...

• U.S. markets are currently reacting to a surprisingly weak June employment report, which has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a patient approach toward further policy tightening. • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining flexibility to intervene in the government bond market or adjust operations to counter excessive yen fluctuations and ensure financial stability. • Japan's economy is experiencing moderate but uneven growth as of July 2026, driven by resilient domestic demand and corporate investment despite geopolitical tensions and weak global manufacturing.

• Lexology Pro outlines key regulatory shifts facing global in-house and compliance teams heading into Q3 2026. • Major developments include the conclusion of the European Union’s MiCA transitional period and the implementation of new non-financial misconduct rules for UK financial institutions. • Australia is also set to expand its Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing (AML/CTF) regime to strengthen financial oversight.

• Samsung Electronics forecasts a massive 19-fold increase in operating profit for the second quarter of 2026. • The projected earnings are expected to surpass the company's combined total profits from the previous three years. • This surge is driven by an intense global chip crunch fueled by skyrocketing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

• The UK stock market is expected to open with a mild positive trend on July 6, 2026, with the FTSE 100 trading near a four-month high. • Market growth is being driven by large-cap stocks in the banking, mining, energy, and healthcare sectors, though weak UK PMI data and cautious sentiment may limit overall gains. • Investors are closely monitoring global macroeconomic developments, central bank policy expectations, and commodity price fluctuations to determine market direction.

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record $4.5 billion in net outflows during June 2026, marking the worst monthly performance since their January 2024 launch. • The downturn was driven by a capital rotation into AI stocks, contributing to Bitcoin's price drop from over $93,000 at the start of the year to $58,190 by July 1. • This shift represents a year-to-date loss exceeding 33% for the cryptocurrency, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs.

• Scientists at the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) are developing a new solar wind forecasting method to locate the first plasma boundary of the outer heliosphere. • The team is combining this forecasting approach with analytic and numerical heliosphere models to map the region's characteristics. • This research is critical for NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft, which is currently traveling toward this mysterious boundary of the solar system.

• The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hardware Professional Market is projected to reach a valuation of $14.32 billion by 2026. • Market Research Intellect forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.01% from 2026 through 2035. • This growth is driven by expanding demand across various applications, technologies, and geographic regions as AI integration scales globally.

• Only five sectors within the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index recorded positive price returns last month. • Information technology led the gains at 17.50%, followed by consumer staples (3.04%), real estate (2.98%), health care (2.21%), and financials (1.88%). • This data highlights a significant divergence in performance across small-cap sectors, with tech drastically outperforming other industries.

• The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.25 per cent in June, bringing the index to within 2 per cent of the record closing high established on June 16. • Seven sectors posted positive price returns during the month, with financials, consumer staples, and health care emerging as the leading performers. • This data provides a snapshot of market momentum and identifies which specific industries are currently driving Canadian equity growth.

More than 100 million people could be affected in week leading to 4 July, with increased risks of droughts and wildfiresMeteorologists are anticipating a tumultuous summer that could rank as one of the US’s hottest ever.New data released on Tuesday showed the first six months of the year were the hottest ever measured for parts of eight western states. Continue reading...

• Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 54.8, slightly missing the forecasted value of 54.9. • The reading indicates continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, as any figure above 50.0 signals growth. • This data is critical for economists and FX experts to gauge the health of Japan's industrial output and potential monetary policy shifts.