Forecast July

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar started Monday strong, though it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices. • The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight meeting, noting that inflation pressures are easing.

• The FTSE 100 is projected to open slightly lower on July 20 as investors react to global market weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • Market participants are closely analyzing oil price fluctuations and corporate earnings reports to gauge the current state of global economic growth. • Investors are prioritizing upcoming economic data from China and the United States, specifically focusing on inflation trends and their impact on interest rates.

• U.S. markets are currently reacting to a surprisingly weak June employment report, which has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a patient approach toward further policy tightening. • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining flexibility to intervene in the government bond market or adjust operations to counter excessive yen fluctuations and ensure financial stability. • Japan's economy is experiencing moderate but uneven growth as of July 2026, driven by resilient domestic demand and corporate investment despite geopolitical tensions and weak global manufacturing.

• The UK stock market is expected to open with a mild positive trend on July 6, 2026, with the FTSE 100 trading near a four-month high. • Market growth is being driven by large-cap stocks in the banking, mining, energy, and healthcare sectors, though weak UK PMI data and cautious sentiment may limit overall gains. • Investors are closely monitoring global macroeconomic developments, central bank policy expectations, and commodity price fluctuations to determine market direction.

Cornwall Insight predicts rise in price cap of nearly 13% in Great Britain as Iran war pushes up gas costsBusiness live – latest updatesHouseholds in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by over £200 a year to almost £1,900 from this summer in “a kick in the teeth” for millions struggling with the cost of living crisis.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,850 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...