Forecast July

• Risk-off sentiment dominated the Asia session on July 24, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and renewed global inflation concerns. • Canadian economic data showed consumer resilience, with retail sales rising 1.0% in May and further increases expected in June, supporting the CAD against the USD around 1.4070–1.4080. • The Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25% during its July 15, 2026 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold in a policy pause that started in late 2025.

• The Australian June Labour Market Report released during the Asian session on July 23, 2026, showed results significantly stronger than market expectations. • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to monitor the franc, maintaining the option for foreign-exchange intervention to prevent excessive appreciation from threatening price stability. • Recent SNB commentary suggests the franc has depreciated, which has eased financial conditions and provided support for overall economic activity.

• The Asia session was primarily influenced by Japanese trade data, a weakening Japanese yen, and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • Key market drivers for July 22, 2026, include the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory report and high-profile U.S. corporate earnings. • These events are expected to impact the volatility of the U.S. dollar, equity indices, Treasury yields, and safe-haven assets.

• Investor sentiment improved during the Asia session on July 21, 2026, following reports of proposed international mediation for a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. • The news eased immediate market concerns regarding potential energy supply disruptions, causing crude oil prices to retreat from their recent highs. • Asian equity markets saw a recovery as a result of the geopolitical optimism, with notable gains recorded in Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI.

• Foreign investors have sold a record 160 trillion won (approximately $108.1 billion) of South Korean stocks year-to-date, marking the heaviest sell-off on record. • Despite this trend, analysts forecast a Kospi rebound for late July, though several risks persist, including a stronger U.S. dollar and weakening AI and semiconductor investment sentiment. • Economic concerns include peaking export growth and a projected slowdown in South Korea's GDP growth rate, which is expected to drop from 2.7% in 2026 to 2.1% in 2027.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar remains firm following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting. • The Bank of Canada adopted a balanced tone, noting that while inflation pressures are easing, economic growth is projected to strengthen later in the year.

• Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. • The Canadian dollar started Monday strong, though it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and fluctuating oil prices. • The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% for the sixth straight meeting, noting that inflation pressures are easing.

• The FTSE 100 is projected to open slightly lower on July 20 as investors react to global market weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • Market participants are closely analyzing oil price fluctuations and corporate earnings reports to gauge the current state of global economic growth. • Investors are prioritizing upcoming economic data from China and the United States, specifically focusing on inflation trends and their impact on interest rates.

• U.S. markets are currently reacting to a surprisingly weak June employment report, which has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a patient approach toward further policy tightening. • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining flexibility to intervene in the government bond market or adjust operations to counter excessive yen fluctuations and ensure financial stability. • Japan's economy is experiencing moderate but uneven growth as of July 2026, driven by resilient domestic demand and corporate investment despite geopolitical tensions and weak global manufacturing.

• The UK stock market is expected to open with a mild positive trend on July 6, 2026, with the FTSE 100 trading near a four-month high. • Market growth is being driven by large-cap stocks in the banking, mining, energy, and healthcare sectors, though weak UK PMI data and cautious sentiment may limit overall gains. • Investors are closely monitoring global macroeconomic developments, central bank policy expectations, and commodity price fluctuations to determine market direction.

Cornwall Insight predicts rise in price cap of nearly 13% in Great Britain as Iran war pushes up gas costsBusiness live – latest updatesHouseholds in Great Britain could see their energy bills increase by over £200 a year to almost £1,900 from this summer in “a kick in the teeth” for millions struggling with the cost of living crisis.A typical gas and electricity bill is now forecast to reach £1,850 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight. Continue reading...