Forecasts

• Ten financial experts provided forecasts for the second half of 2026, focusing on inflation, housing, and stock market trends. • Consumer sentiment is mixed, with 22% of respondents reporting improved ability to cover expenses, while 33% saw a deterioration. • BofA Global Research predicts that inflation will not decelerate enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing further interest-rate hikes.

• Samsung Electronics forecasts a massive 19-fold increase in operating profit for the second quarter of 2026. • The projected earnings are expected to surpass the company's combined total profits from the previous three years. • This surge is driven by an intense global chip crunch fueled by skyrocketing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

• Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 54.8, slightly missing the forecasted value of 54.9. • The reading indicates continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, as any figure above 50.0 signals growth. • This data is critical for economists and FX experts to gauge the health of Japan's industrial output and potential monetary policy shifts.

• Wholesale inventories remained steady with a reported figure of 0.3%, precisely matching the projections set by market analysts. • This stability indicates that wholesalers are maintaining a balanced approach to inventory management amidst a cautious economic environment. • The alignment between the actual data and forecasts suggests that current supply chain and stock levels are meeting market expectations.

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has surpassed both previous readings and market forecasts, signaling stronger-than-expected economic resilience. • This index is a critical metric for investors and policymakers as it tracks consumer attitudes that directly influence national spending and saving behaviors. • The unexpected rise in sentiment may spark increased market optimism and could potentially shift current investment strategies.

• Micron and Qualcomm released positive financial forecasts, triggering a massive $400 billion rally across AI-related chip stocks. • The surge is driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory and AI-capable processors as companies integrate artificial intelligence into consumer devices. • This rally underscores the critical role of hardware infrastructure in the AI boom, signaling robust investor confidence in the semiconductor sector's growth.

• Eurofiber forecasts its 2026 revenues to reach approximately EUR 361 million, representing a EUR 12 million increase over the previous year. • This growth is driven by the strategic expansion of the company's fiber optic footprint across France and Germany. • The company expects capital expenditure to decrease by an estimated EUR 8 million, bringing the total down to EUR 203 million.

• UK inflation dropped to 2.8% in April 2026, performing better than initial forecasts. • Economic experts predict a rebound in inflation, expecting it to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year. • The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the number of payrolled employees steadily decreasing since mid-2024.

El Niño events linked with extreme weather around the world – and can increase risk of bushfires in Australia and coral bleaching on Great Barrier ReefFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Niño – the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia – is now locked in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean.The bureau warned climate change would amplify the effects on Australia, including the risk of extreme heat and bushfires. Continue reading...

• The US economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Employment growth was primarily driven by gains in health care, local government, and the leisure and hospitality sectors, while financial activities saw a decline. • This stronger-than-expected job growth is fueling market bets that the Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

Use of AI is a valuable tool for weather prediction but only when it’s trained with ample data, experts sayAs the US prepares for hurricane season and a summer of record-breaking heat, experts fear the Trump administration’s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make the federal government’s weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) late last year launched a suite of artificial intelligence-powered global weather forecast models which it said would improve “speed, efficiency, and accuracy”. In March, an agency official said those models are being trained with centuries of weather data. Continue reading...

• China’s economy slowed in April, with industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all missing expectations as global energy-market volatility added pressure. • Retail sales rose just 0.2% year on year, down from 1.7% in March, while industrial output increased 4.1%, below the 5.63% forecast cited by economists. • National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said the economy had “generally speaking” maintained steady growth, but warned the external environment remained “complex and volatile.”

• Olympic Circuit Technology, a Chinese tech firm traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE:603920), has demonstrated robust growth with revenue forecasts of 29.5% and earnings forecasts of 45.6%, significantly exceeding broader Chinese market averages as of May 2026. • The company's growth metrics position it among high-performing tech stocks in Asia, reflecting strong operational performance and market confidence in its business model and expansion strategy. • The outperformance relative to the broader Chinese market indicates Olympic Circuit Technology's competitive advantages and operational efficiency in a challenging economic environment.

Bank expects its base case for GDP growth to be 0.5% this year, lower than IMF’s 0.8% prediction for BritainBusiness live – latest updatesLloyds has warned that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could cost it £151m amid rising unemployment and inflation and a slowdown in the housing market.The FTSE 100 group, whose brands include Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, issued a downbeat economic forecast that it said reflects the stagflationary consequences – the double hit of rising inflation at the same time as slower economic growth – for the UK and global economies. Continue reading...

Queensland and NSW set for lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, while temperatures in most of the country likely to be higher than normalFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastLarge parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures. Continue reading...

Thousands face power outages and a number of schools close across region as forecasters warn of hail and floodingSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxA day after severe storms damaged communities in the Plains and the midwest, forecasters warned that storms could bring giant hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts to the regions again on Tuesday afternoon and evening.Authorities in Kansas reported several people with minor injuries after storms passed through on Monday. Three people were left with minor injuries in rural Franklin county, about 50 miles (80km) south-west of Kansas City, according to the sheriff’s office. In the town of Ottawa, officials said there was structural damage, but no deaths or injuries. A National Weather Service survey team will assess damage in the Ottawa area on Tuesday to determine whether a tornado passed through there, according to Chelsea Picha, a meteorologist with the weather service’s office in Topeka. Continue reading...

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced at GTC 2026 that demand for the company's products will reach $1 trillion through 2027, with fulfillment only possible by 2028. • The revelation underscores explosive growth in AI hardware needs, driven by data center expansions and model training. • Nvidia also released NemoClaw, an open-source stack enhancing privacy and security for the popular OpenClaw AI agent.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced expectations of at least $1 trillion in demand for its Blackwell and Rubin AI systems through 2027, doubling from $500 billion projected through 2026. • This projection signals over 100% annual sales growth for Nvidia amid booming data center demand. • The forecast underscores AI's role in driving U.S. tech sector expansion and GDP growth, with analysts citing non-inflationary productivity gains.

OECD says the Middle East war will test the world’s resilience with Australia expected to suffer from higher rates and inflationGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe world economy is on the brink of a major inflationary spike as soaring fuel prices threaten growth in European and Asian nations, the OECD has warned, and local economists are slashing Australia’s growth prospects for this year and the next amid the ongoing US-Israel attack on Iran.The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s latest interim outlook said the US-Israel war on Iran will “test the resilience of the global economy”, and warned of the “significant downside risk” to their forecasts should the oil supply disruptions prove more persistent and push energy prices even higher. Continue reading...

• CompTIA's State of the Tech Workforce 2026 report, released March 24, predicts net U.S. tech employment growth of 1.9%, creating 185,499 new jobs to reach nearly 9.8 million workers. • Texas leads with 32,238 jobs added, followed by California (16,949), Florida (14,453), and New York (13,566); all states expect gains. • High-growth roles include data scientists (420% over 10 years), cybersecurity analysts (346%), and software developers (188%), driven by AI impact.

• AI is expected to drive data center power consumption up 175% by 2030, creating unprecedented grid shortages that have pushed electricity prices higher across the country and compelled tech companies to seek alternative power sources. • Google's deal to power a new Minnesota data center blends wind and solar with a 30 gigawatt-hour battery from Form Energy, while the U.S. is expected to have nearly 65 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by year-end. • Dozens of startups including Amperesand, DG Matrix, Heron Power, Camus, GridBeyond, and Texture are developing power conversion and grid management technologies to address the critical energy shortage.

• NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced at GTC in San Jose a forecast of $1 trillion in sales from Blackwell and Rubin chips by late 2027, doubling the prior $500 billion estimate through 2026. • The company unveiled a new inference system generating 700 million tokens per second, 350 times faster than the Hopper generation, to counter custom chips from competitors like Google. • NVIDIA's DRIVE platform for robotaxis, valued at $1.2 trillion by Morgan Stanley, is adopted by Uber and BYD, with Uber's fleet launching in 2028; data center revenue hit $192 billion last year, up 66%.

• Apple is projected to generate more than $1 billion in AI-related revenue this year, even as it trails rivals in generative AI product launches, according to The Wall Street Journal. • Wall Street analysts focus on Apple's monetization strategy leveraging its services ecosystem and premium hardware rather than first-to-market demos. • This approach highlights how distribution and installed base can drive consumer AI profitability over raw model capabilities.

Goldman Sachs increased its 12-month US recession probability to 25% from 20% and pushed back expected Federal Reserve rate cuts from earlier timelines to September and December. This adjustment reflects growing caution amid recent market volatility and economic data, with major indices like the S&P 500 down only 8% from highs but signaling broader concerns. The change aligns with rising odds of just one or no rate cuts at 40% each, driven by oil price pressures. Markets await further indicators next week for policy shifts.

Adobe shares fell 5.4% on March 13, 2026, even after exceeding Wall Street's sales and profit estimates for the quarter. Investors reacted negatively to the software maker's forecast for recurring subscription revenue, which underwhelmed expectations amid competitive pressures in creative software. The drop underscores concerns over growth sustainability in tech amid macroeconomic headwinds. Adobe's outlook may influence sentiment for other SaaS companies reporting soon.