Globe Mail

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Wednesday that she will invite leading frontier AI labs to discuss ways to manage the risks of artificial intelligence. • The discussions will focus on coordinating efforts between the European Union and the private companies developing the most advanced AI models. • These talks determine how the EU will regulate AI safety and could influence the operational requirements for tech companies operating within the European market.

• Global markets rose slightly as oil prices dropped and the selloff of government bonds slowed ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision. • Wall Street futures moved into positive territory following a day where major North American markets closed lower. • Investors are monitoring these shifts to gauge how the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will impact market volatility and borrowing costs.

• The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain current interest rates during its upcoming policy decision in October. • Core inflation measures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are likely to remain near the 2 per cent target. • A decision to hold rates provides stability for borrowers and businesses facing high borrowing costs.

• AI-linked stocks declined recently after CEOs from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic called for a slowdown in the development of artificial intelligence. • Memory chipmaker Kioxia plunged 9.8 per cent, while Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron both fell 3.7 per cent. • The slump reflects investor volatility as market leaders weigh the potential for humanity-threatening risks against the race for technological dominance.

• The European Central Bank raised interest rates to combat inflation driven by rising energy costs. • The bank expects inflation to average 3% while projecting economic growth to rise to 0.9% this year from a previous estimate of 0.8%. • Higher borrowing costs aim to lower price increases, though resilient economic growth may continue to put upward pressure on consumer prices.

• S&P 500 and Dow futures attempted to recover on Thursday morning following a three-day decline in equity markets. • Oil prices rose above US$100 a barrel for the first time since July, creating uncertainty for the broader stock market outlook. • Investors are weighing these price shifts against upcoming inflation data and a scheduled interest rate hike from the European Central Bank.

• Global markets remained muted on Tuesday following attacks on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf and the implementation of Canadian countertariffs. • Oil prices rose to nearly US$100 a barrel, while Canada applied tariffs to US$28 billion worth of American goods. • These geopolitical tensions and trade disputes create price volatility for energy investors and businesses importing goods between Canada and the U.S.

• Global market traders are monitoring upcoming U.S. payrolls data to predict the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. • Market participants currently estimate a nearly 50-per-cent chance of a rate change following comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller. • These employment figures will directly influence borrowing costs and investment returns for Canadian investors.

• North American markets rallied and Wall Street futures trended positive as a global bond selloff eased. • Major markets closed up yesterday as investors shifted focus toward upcoming U.S. economic data. • Market volatility depends on these economic indicators, which will signal the Federal Reserve's next policy moves regarding interest rates.

• Experts warn that instability in the U.S. government bond market poses a greater risk for a future financial crisis than typical asset price crashes. • Recent spikes in global bond yields, driven by Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, have already placed significant pressure on international stock markets. • The risk is amplified by the unique scale of U.S. borrowing and the central role its debt plays in the global financial system, mirroring the spillover effects seen in 2008.

• Global stock markets opened cautiously on Monday as escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices up by 2 per cent. • Borrowing costs in Japan and Germany reached multi-year highs, while rising oil prices intensified concerns regarding persistent global inflation. • New Zealand's central bank is expected to raise interest rates this Wednesday, whereas the Bank of Canada is predicted to hold rates steady due to U.S. trade dispute risks.

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, suggesting that policymakers may still "have work to do" if inflation does not return to the 2 per cent target. • The remarks were interpreted by some as the closest Warsh has come to acknowledging that further interest rate hikes could be necessary to curb inflation. • Market analysts, including Jamie Cox and Brian Jacobsen, viewed the speech as a strategic attempt to remain noncommittal and avoid pre-announcing policy intentions, reminiscent of Alan Greenspan's approach.

• Investors are seeking policy clarity from Federal Reserve official Warsh during the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming. • The gathering, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has historically served as a platform for the central bank to signal future interest rate expectations. • Market participants are currently unsettled because the Fed's new leadership has largely abandoned the traditional "forward guidance" that investors previously relied upon.

• Global markets showed mixed results on Thursday morning as strong sales growth forecasts from Nvidia drove technology shares higher. • While the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged, other trading sectors were dampened by geopolitical uncertainty and stubbornly high U.S. inflation data. • This volatility highlights the ongoing tension between AI-driven growth and macroeconomic pressures affecting broader investor sentiment.

• Former President Donald Trump has renewed discussions regarding annexation following Canada's decision to withdraw from a previous deal. • Privacy expert Colin Bennett and journalist Marsha Lederman highlight the growing crisis of online monitoring and the shift toward state-led economic planning in advanced economies. • Global stock markets remained muted as investors weighed upcoming corporate earnings reports against the risk of impending U.S. sanctions on Iran.

• Global stock markets remained muted as investors weighed the potential for impending U.S. sanctions on Iran, which has dampened overall risk appetite. • Wall Street futures are pointing lower following a Friday close where major North American markets had previously ended the session in positive territory. • Market participants are shifting their focus toward a heavy slate of corporate earnings reports scheduled for release throughout the week.

• Moderna and Merck are developing personalized cancer vaccines designed to train the immune system to target mutations specific to an individual's tumor. • The treatment represents a potential breakthrough in oncology by shifting toward highly tailored immunotherapy rather than one-size-fits-all approaches. • Clinical trial results for colon cancer are anticipated in 2027, with data for pancreatic cancer trials expected to follow by 2031.

• Moderna and Merck announced that a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, used alongside the immunotherapy drug Keytruda, successfully reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in a late-stage trial. • The positive interim analysis caused Moderna’s shares to surge by as much as 160 per cent on Wednesday. • This development marks a significant milestone in the emerging field of personalized cancer treatment, potentially benefiting thousands of high-risk patients who have undergone tumor removal surgery.

• Global markets remained muted as prospects for a deal to end the conflict in the Middle East continued to recede. • TSX futures trended positive following an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a trade agreement with Canada. • As part of this development, Trump has agreed to postpone his latest round of threatened tariffs for a period of three days.

• Global markets remained muted as efforts to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict reached an impasse, discouraging investors from taking high-risk positions. • Market volatility was further compounded by an uncertain inflation outlook, contributing to a general sense of caution among traders. • While U.S. markets closed lower on Monday, Wall Street futures turned higher on Tuesday morning, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

• The Globe and Mail is tracking several key business developments this week, including potential trade negotiations with the U.S. and efforts to attract global high-net-worth investors. • A major focus is on the automotive sector, where upcoming Unifor negotiations with GM are expected to center on enhancing job security for workers. • The briefing also highlights the financial impact of recent cinematic blockbusters and monitors geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

• The TSX and S&P 500 both closed at record highs, with the Canadian benchmark achieving its largest weekly gain in four months. • Market optimism is driven by strong corporate performance, as 85.1% of the 436 S&P 500 companies reporting results so far have exceeded analyst expectations, surpassing the historical average of 68%. • This rally persists despite contradictory economic signals, including weak job numbers and higher inflation, which typically suggest a need for rate hikes rather than cuts.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,100 points and long-term U.S. bond yields surged after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. • Internal division was revealed within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as three of the 12 members had preferred a quarter-point rate hike during the meeting. • Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested that while forward guidance is crucial during financial crises, the approach should be revisited during more stable economic periods.

• South Korea's stock market experienced a record-breaking $2-trillion rout as investors reacted to disappointing results from chipmaker SK Hynix. • The sell-off is driven by a broader "market reckoning" in the AI sector, with traders derisking ahead of hyperscaler earnings and an upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision. • Despite the crash, the KOSPI remains the year's best-performing major market, gaining 41.5 per cent in U.S. dollar terms year-to-date.

• Investors frequently prioritize prevailing market narratives over fundamental data, leading to a disconnect between stock prices and actual financial performance. • Current consensus estimates indicate that earnings growth for the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants will decelerate from roughly 40% in 2024 to approximately 19% by 2027. • This trend is significant because the growth gap between these elite companies and the broader market is narrowing rapidly, potentially challenging the current valuation premiums.

• The Globe and Mail is tracking several key economic trends this week, including pressures on the global oil supply and the impact of trade wars on Canadian stocks. • Central banks are facing increasing challenges in managing monetary policy using benchmark interest rates due to "tectonic shifts" in the global economy. • New research highlights how artificial intelligence, natural disasters, and macroeconomic disruptions are complicating the ability of banks to control borrowing costs.

• Global stock markets and Wall Street futures rose on Monday morning, with Dow and S&P 500 futures increasing by 1.04% and 1.02% respectively. • The rally was driven by a sharp decline in oil prices following the easing of hostilities in the Middle East, which reduced immediate inflation concerns. • This market movement occurs ahead of a critical week featuring multiple central bank meetings and a heavy schedule of corporate earnings reports.

• Wall Street index futures rose on Monday following an announcement that the United States and Iran have paused hostilities over the weekend. • The geopolitical de-escalation caused oil prices to drop sharply, boosting premarket trading for energy-sensitive stocks, including United Airlines and American Airlines. • Investors are now shifting focus toward critical economic data, with June durable goods reports expected later on Monday.