Market

Rachel Reeves will address concerns about price rises and shortages with retailers as energy costs surgeThe bosses of the UK’s biggest supermarkets are to meet the chancellor on Wednesday as the government seeks to gauge the extent of potential price rises and shortages of household essentials amid a surge in energy, fuel and fertiliser costs.Rachel Reeves is meeting the bosses of Sainsbury’s, Tesco and Morrisons as concerns rise about the potential impact on the cost of living – including higher food prices – as a result of the Middle East conflict. Continue reading...

• Equity markets reacted positively after Iranian state media indicated willingness to end the conflict with the US, contingent on certain conditions, as reported in Bloomberg coverage. • President Trump described potential US exit from Iran as 'very soon,' predicting sharp drops in gasoline prices and improved safety from neutralized nuclear threats. • The month-long war has spiked fuel costs, affecting grocery prices as noted by industry figures like Stew Leonard Jr.

• The S&P 500 rose over 1.5% and Nasdaq climbed nearly 2% Monday after the White House signaled it may abandon America's role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump telling allies on Truth Social to "build up some delayed courage" and secure the strait themselves. • Trump wrote on social media: "You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us," signaling a potential shift toward military disengagement despite ongoing operations. • The mixed messaging coincides with U.S. gas prices crossing $4 per gallon Tuesday—up more than $1 from February 27—marking the first time since 2022's Ukraine crisis energy shock, while Trump's approval rating has dropped to -16.7, a record low for his second term.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• Bitcoin price fell to $66,710.43 at 8:45 a.m. ET on March 31, 2026, down $1,112 from prior day and $15,830 from recent peak. • Decline reflects ongoing cryptocurrency market pressures in US trading. • Highlights volatility impacting tech investment sectors tied to digital assets.

• Asian stock markets declined sharply as geopolitical tensions persisted, with South Korea's Kospi dropping 3.4%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.2%, and Taiwan's Taiex losing 2.2%, erasing year-to-date gains for some indexes. • Oil markets remained elevated with Brent crude holding near $113 per barrel and US benchmark crude at approximately $103, marking a surge of more than 40% since the Iran conflict began five weeks ago. • A reported drone strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker and ongoing regional attacks reinforced supply security concerns, keeping markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments despite signals the US may seek conflict resolution.

• Moody's AI-based recession probability model has surged to 49%, just below the 50% threshold that historically signals economic recession within a year, amid mounting economic concerns. • The US labor market delivered a major disappointment with March data showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, far below expectations, while GDP growth projections have been revised downward from 1.4% to as low as 0.7%. • Recession forecasts from major institutions have escalated: Goldman Sachs raised odds to 30%, EY-Parthenon estimates risk at around 40%, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned rising oil prices could trigger global recession.