Moves

• The US dollar remained steady in Asian markets as traders await critical inflation reports and the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium this weekend. • Market participants are specifically focusing on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data to gauge future monetary policy. • Simultaneously, oil prices experienced a decline, driven by a combination of halted diplomatic negotiations and easing tensions in the Middle East.

• Economist Saravelos warns that recent U.S. Treasury moves in bond and currency markets constitute "soft-form financial repression" designed to artificially lower debt costs. • The analysis suggests that if U.S. Treasury prices are prevented from adjusting downward, the dollar must weaken to adjust the value of bonds held by foreign investors. • This strategy effectively loosens financial conditions, which may conflict with the Federal Reserve's goal of keeping inflation at or below its 2% target.

• The Cook Political Report has shifted its outlook on Texas statewide races for 2026, signaling a trend toward Democratic competitiveness. • Specifically, the U.S. Senate contest between candidates Paxton and Talarico is now categorized as "too close to call." • This shift mirrors the 2018 "Beto wave," where Beto O’Rourke nearly defeated Ted Cruz, coming within 3 percentage points and flipping several state legislative seats.

• Potential Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking to lower long-term Treasury yields, a move that may encroach on the Federal Reserve's traditional monetary policy domain. • This creates a policy tension for Kevin Warsh, who must determine the appropriate boundaries of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed regarding bond markets and the balance sheet. • Historically, the Fed only intervenes in bond yields during severe economic crises, and current conditions do not yet meet that emergency threshold.

• Peeko raised $7 million in funding, while Tross secured an undisclosed pre-seed round led by All In Capital and DeVC to expand its US healthcare EHR and payer integrations. • In legal developments, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has moved to court against Beco, and Starlink has reapplied for necessary approval from IN-SPACe to operate. • These events highlight a mix of aggressive growth in the health-tech sector and intensifying regulatory and legal battles among major corporate players in India.

• The US government is considering extending export controls to cloud services to prevent China from accessing advanced AI models and computing power. • This move follows a surge in Chinese AI capabilities and aims to close loopholes that allow Chinese firms to bypass hardware restrictions via third-party cloud providers. • Some experts warn that these regulations could inadvertently weaken US market dominance if data centers in Southeast Asia shift toward Chinese chips.

• The European Union is revising its General Block Exemption Regulation (GBER) to ease state aid rules, specifically prioritizing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), innovation, and social inclusion. • The move aims to simplify how member states provide subsidies to small media outlets without requiring lengthy approval processes from the European Commission. • This shift follows intense lobbying among EU capitals, with Denmark emerging as a leading advocate for extending these exemptions to the media sector to support local journalism.