Polymarket

• Polymarket is tracking prediction market odds and probabilities for the winner of the 2026 French Open (Roland Garros). • The market currently features a liquidity of approximately $634,280, which facilitates price discovery and tradability for participants. • Analysts note that current market agreement around Alexander Zverev may be volatile, as the liquidity is significantly smaller than the cumulative volume.

Prediction sites, which allow bets on all topics from weather to politics, may be in breach of country’s rulesSpain’s ministry of consumer rights has blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi while it investigates whether the leading prediction market sites are violating Spanish law by operating without a gambling licence.On Tuesday the ministry said it had launched disciplinary proceedings against the two platforms, which allow users to bet on everything from the weather to political events, amid allegations that they lacked the “necessary administrative authorisation” to operate in Spain. Continue reading...

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volumePolymarket, the online prediction platform that hosts bets on events such as the Iran war, is in talks to raise $400m (£296m) at a valuation of up to $15bn.The company has gained notoriety in recent months over wagers placed on the Middle East conflict, including on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran, and on a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading. Continue reading...

Customers make hundreds of thousands of dollars as records show substantial bets made before announcementA group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on Tuesday, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Ssrait of Hormuz by his 8pm ET deadline. Continue reading...

US congressman decried bets on when two crew members on the F-15 jet shot down by Iranian forces would be rescuedAfter strong criticism from a federal lawmaker, the online betting platform Polymarket stopped accepting wagers on when US warplane crew members who were shot down in Iran might be rescued. It promised to investigate how the market materialized.The criticism came from Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democratic representative who earned two bronze star medals serving with the United States marine corps in Iraq from 2003 to 2008 and published an X post describing Polymarket’s acceptance of bets on the downed pilots’ fate as “DISGUSTING”. Continue reading...

Top prediction market sites usher in new guardrails after senators introduced bill that could limit booming industryKalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction market sites, rushed to institute new industry guardrails and add new surveillance tools on Monday after two key senators announced legislation that could severely curtail the industry’s prospects.Kalshi said it would ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, and it would preemptively block anyone involved in college or professional sports from trading contracts related to the sports they play or are employed by. Continue reading...

Emanuel Fabian says his routine report became focus of wager with $23m at stake on online prediction platformAn Israeli journalist received threatening messages from users of the online prediction platform Polymarket after one of his reports, on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem, suddenly became the focus of an unresolved bet about the Israel-Iran conflict.“After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you,” said one message to the journalist, Emanuel Fabian. Continue reading...