Rex

Sweden has ordered more Britons, including vulnerable people, to leave post-Brexit than any other EU countryHe arrived with nothing other than the clothes he wore that morning. Hours later he was banged up in a detention centre close to a Stockholm airport to await deportation.Charles, a former business director from Cambridge, who did not want his full name published, moved to Sweden in 2017 to be with his Swedish wife, Lily, and applied to remain after Brexit, before the deadline of December 2021. But the migration agency rejected his application, and he and his wife have been fighting with the Swedish authorities ever since. Continue reading...

The 23ft-long trackway, consisting of four three-toed footprints, two left and two right, date from 66.5m years ago The first known series of footprints from an adult Tyrannosaurus rex has been found in North Dakota by a team of scientists.The 23ft-long trackway – consisting of four three-toed footprints, two left and two right – was first identified in the south-west of the state, in the dinosaur fossil area known as Hell Creek Formation, last year by researchers from the Denver Museum of Nature and Science in Colorado and Liverpool John Moores University in the UK. Continue reading...

• Brent crude oil and European gas prices surged recently, with crude testing the $102 per barrel July peak. • European gas prices rose above €80 per megawatt hour for the first time since January 2, 2023. • UK Gilts, which are government bonds, underperformed as investors prepared for higher interest rates following Bank of England Governor Bailey's warning about inflation risks.

• Oil prices fluctuated during recent Asian and European trading sessions following attacks on US and Iranian vessels and Saudi energy facilities. • Prices initially attempted to rally beyond $100 per barrel before returning to $97 per barrel. • These price swings create immediate volatility for energy markets and traders reacting to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

• Brent oil prices rose toward the $100 mark, reaching an intraday peak of $99.46 amid renewed military tensions between the US and Iran. • The central bank will release a new inflation report during its September 22 policy meeting to determine plans for the fourth quarter. • Rumors suggest the bank may lower its inflation target from 3% to 2.5% to align with the European Central Bank's 2% target for future euro zone entry.

• Energy traders drove market trends at the start of the trading week while U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday. • Oil prices rose to $98 per barrel and Dutch TTF gas reached €74/MWh following tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran on regional vessels. • Australian business confidence fell as the National Australia Bank business conditions measure dropped from +5 to -1 in August, marking the first negative reading in six years.

• The Japanese yen strengthened against major currencies on Monday, pushing the USD/JPY pair below the 155 support level to its lowest point since late February. • Market analysts attribute the move to technical factors and thin liquidity caused by the closure of US financial markets for Labor Day. • This volatility affects currency traders and investors managing exposure to the yen, while the EUR/JPY pair is currently testing the 180 mark.

Scale of deportations made public for first time amid criticism of hardline approach to UK citizensSweden has confirmed 458 British citizens have been deported or forcibly removed by police since Brexit.It is the first time the scale of the deportations of citizens who failed to secure residency in Sweden post Brexit has been made public and comes amid mounting criticism of a cruel and hardline approach to Britons who had chosen to make the country their home before Brexit. Continue reading...

• Treasury yields rose sharply this week following a hawkish speech by Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. • The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 4.82%, marking its highest level since late 2023. • These fluctuations reflect market uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will implement a rate hike in September.

• Global bond yields paused their recent climb after reaching multi-year highs earlier this week across several countries. • The stabilization was driven by balanced remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a deceleration in oil prices, with Brent closing at $95.5 per barrel. • ECB's Philip Pill highlighted the "defining challenge" facing central banks: maintaining independence while navigating a volatile and uncertain economic environment.

• US Treasury yields continued a protracted uptrend yesterday, though momentum slowed as the trading session progressed. • Economic data remained sparse, with the US ADP report showing job growth of 38k, which aligned closely with market expectations. • A slowdown in the initial rise of oil prices further tempered intraday momentum within the bond markets.

• Core bond markets are currently facing significant pressure due to persistent upside inflation risks driven by a six-month energy supply shock. • The UK British Chambers of Commerce has slightly raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1%, up from the 0.9% projection made in June. • While the UK economy survived the initial impact of the Iran war, businesses remain hesitant to invest, leaving economic growth dependent on consumer spending.

Minister says Sweden has ‘fulfilled its commitments’ amid criticism of ‘unjust’ decisions such as case of Joyce ThomasThe Swedish government has doubled down on its position on removing and deporting British citizens on the grounds they were late to apply for permission to stay after Brexit.The migration minister, Johan Forssell, issued a robust defence of the Swedish migration agency’s implementation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement on Wednesday in response to a question from an MP about the case of Joyce Thomas, a 78-year-old British widow who has been ordered to leave the country after 21 years. Continue reading...

• Euro area HICP inflation rose to 3.3% year-over-year, up from a previous 2.9%, primarily driven by an increase in energy prices. • Core inflation slightly declined to 2.4%, while the July unemployment rate remained steady at 6.4%, though this was slightly higher than the 6.3% forecast. • Regional unemployment varied significantly, with Spain recording the highest rate at 10.0% and Germany the lowest at 4.0%.

• Global bond markets continued a "highest since" trend yesterday, characterized by rising yields and shifting price actions. • Energy prices surged further, driven primarily by a new intensification of the conflict involving Iran. • Beyond geopolitical tensions, market volatility is being fueled by underlying fiscal risk premia and an abundant supply of bonds.

• Iceland has opted not to hold a referendum on joining the European Union, a decision that differs fundamentally from the UK's Brexit-style rejection. • Because Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), it already enjoys unrestricted access to the EU's trading bloc and freedom of movement for its citizens. • The decision matters because while a "yes" vote would have provided a political boost to Brussels, the lack of a vote does not signal a desire for isolation.

• Global risk sentiment has declined following the return of armed hostilities near the Hormuz Strait, specifically reports that two supertankers were struck. • Stock markets reacted negatively to the escalation, with European markets dropping 0.5% and the US Nasdaq falling 1.2%. • The conflict is driving upward pressure on energy prices, creating volatility in the global commodities market.

• Global yields are continuing to rise steadily, driven by a combination of elevated energy prices and market expectations. • Key contributing factors include the anticipation of tighter monetary policy and an increase in fiscal risk premia. • This trend is significant as it reflects broader market instability and shifting expectations regarding global inflation and interest rates.

• Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has conducted a surprise reshuffle, replacing a "spartan" Brexiteer with a former ardent Remainer as shadow foreign secretary. • The move signals a potential strategic shift in the Tory party's approach to Brexit and its international relations strategy. • This appointment is significant as it suggests the party may be "going soft" on Brexit to broaden its appeal or modernize its foreign policy.

A yes to membership would have given Brussels a boost but Icelanders have not voted to isolate themselves Iceland’s 52.8% to 47.2% vote against reopening EU accession talks is, undeniably, a blow for Brussels. But claiming it as a Brexit-style victory for “national sovereignty” or evidence of broad rejection of the EU misrepresents the reality of the island’s relationship with the bloc.For the EU, Iceland was a dream candidate: small, stable, prosperous and strategically located in an increasingly contested Arctic. Eager as it is to wield more geopolitical clout and revive flagging momentum around enlargement, a vote in favour would have given Brussels a very welcome boost. Continue reading...

• The provided text outlines the fundamentals of forex recession trading, focusing on how economic slowdowns and central bank interest rate shifts impact currency markets. • Key details include the importance of monitoring "hawkish" or "dovish" rhetoric from central banks, as discrepancies between expected and actual policies often trigger significant market volatility. • This matters because traders can use global macroeconomic indicators to identify resilient economies and leverage safe-haven currencies to mitigate risk during contractions.

• Global markets remained in a "wait-and-see" mode today as investors anticipate a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow. • Recent economic indicators included a wider-than-expected US trade deficit for July, weekly jobless claims holding steady at 203k, and a slight increase in German consumer confidence. • Despite these data releases, interest rate markets have not adjusted their current positioning, viewing the upcoming Fed event as the primary driver of volatility.

• Stock markets surged yesterday, led by a significant jump in AI bellwether Nvidia, which rose more than 8%. • The Nasdaq outperformed other indices with a gain of nearly 1.6%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the DJI increased 0.2%. • The S&P 500 is now positioned less than 3% away from its all-time highs established in May.

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report on Wednesday, August 26. • This report provides critical data on inflation, specifically through the Core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred metric for guiding monetary policy. • The release is a pivotal event for investors as it will likely influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions regarding interest rate adjustments.

• The US released economic data for July focusing on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflators. • As the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation, the PCE is closely monitored despite being less timely than Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicators. • Current data suggests that inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict in Iran have not yet manifested in the PCE figures.

• Brent crude oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, dropping to approximately $86.7 per barrel, the lowest level seen in two weeks. • The downward trend began on Monday following details released by USTS Bessent regarding "Operation Economic Outcast." • This shift is significant as it signals a U.S. strategic preference for applying economic pressure over military re-escalation.

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent declined to announce secondary sanctions against Iran's trading partners and financial institutions during a recent press conference. • While Bessent unveiled new sanctions targeting specific individuals, entities, and vessels, he issued a final warning instead of the broader measures expected. • The decision falls significantly short of the "economic D-Day" that analysts and markets had anticipated prior to the announcement.