Sur Inflation

• Philippine annual inflation slowed to 6.2% in July, though it remains significantly above the central bank's 3% target for 2026. • To combat rising prices, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has already increased its key interest rate by 50 basis points in 2026. • The economic situation is critical as the Philippines faces some of the fastest inflation and slowest growth in Southeast Asia, with Q1 2026 growth sliding to 2.8%.

• JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts the S&P 500 will rise 10% over the next 12 months, with a long-term target of 8,200 by mid-2027. • The optimistic outlook is driven by second-quarter earnings data showing the index is on track for its highest net profit margin since the Great Financial Crisis. • Analyst Gupta notes that demand from both retail and institutional investors remains "off the charts," suggesting strong market momentum.

• Former Fed official Kevin Warsh highlighted significant discrepancies in how the Federal Reserve measures inflation, questioning whether the actual rate is 3.7% or 2.2%. • In separate retail news, Costco has reached a $14 million email settlement, allowing eligible customers to claim payments up to $500 by the August 24 deadline. • Apple CEO Tim Cook issued a warning during his latest earnings call regarding a potential "hundred year flood" in memory chip pricing.

• Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.72%, signaling that inflation pressures remain persistent. • Gerber highlighted a strengthening partnership between Tesla and Micron, noting that Elon Musk recently thanked the memory supplier for their ongoing cooperation. • Regarding Tesla's technology, Gerber suggested renaming the "Full Self-Driving" program to "pretty good self-driving," arguing the system has not yet achieved Level 3-5 autonomy.

Commonwealth and Western Australia to fund study into construction of large-scale petrol refinery as buffer against fuel vulnerabilityGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAustralia’s first new oil refinery in 60 years could be built in Western Australia under the Albanese government’s long-term strategy to shield the country from future global oil shocks.The commonwealth and the WA government will fund a $4m early-stage feasibility study into construction of what would be the country’s third large-scale petrol refinery. Continue reading...

• The European Central Bank (ECB) released a new survey indicating a forecast for lower economic growth and higher inflation across the eurozone. • The report suggests a challenging economic outlook, as rising price pressures coincide with a slowdown in overall productivity and expansion. • These findings are critical for policymakers as they determine whether to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation or pivot to support flagging growth.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged during today's meeting. • Because no new macroeconomic projections will be released, market focus will shift to President Christine Lagarde's press conference for policy signals. • Traders anticipate a "hawkish pause," where the ECB maintains current rates but emphasizes that future hikes remain an option if inflation risks intensify.

• Asian markets rose on Wednesday, led by a 6% surge in South Korea’s KOSPI and a 1.7% increase in the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan). • The rally followed a surprise 0.4% decline in the US consumer price index for June, the first drop since the pandemic, which reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes. • Positive momentum was further supported by strong Wall Street bank earnings and the US decision to scrap shipping levies in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Asian stock markets extended their losses, with Singapore's Straits Times Index dropping 1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipping 0.5%. • The decline is driven by a surge in oil prices, which has intensified investor concerns regarding global inflation. • Market participants are now awaiting the release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday to gauge the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy.

From harvests dampened by El Niño to wage and tax rises, getting coffee beans from crop to cup costs more than everDrinkers across the UK were shocked when a pint in some London bars hit £10, and now a cup of coffee is facing a similar inflationary rate. Some baristas are now charging £6.50 for a flat white.Higher energy bills, inflated by the war in the Middle East, as well as government policies which have increased tax and wages, are filtering through into coffee prices, experts said. Continue reading...

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India has reached a five-year high, driven by strong capital inflows and resilient domestic demand despite global trade headwinds. • The services sector emerged as the primary growth engine with a 10% expansion, followed by industry growth of 7.3% and a more subdued 3.6% increase in agriculture. • This surge is significant as robust investment momentum and gross capital formation are currently offsetting global economic uncertainties and inflation.

• Monthly market valuation updates indicate that U.S. stock indexes remain significantly overvalued, signaling a need for cautious investment return expectations. • The analysis specifically utilizes the P/E10 ratio to assess market pricing and examines its direct correlation with inflation and 10-year Treasury yields. • This valuation gap matters as it suggests that current stock prices may not be sustainable relative to historical norms and economic indicators.

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced methodological changes to how price changes are calculated across three subcategories of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure. • While the BEA asserts these adjustments are technically defensible, the timing is politically sensitive as inflation remains a primary concern for policymakers and the public. • These tweaks are significant because the PCE is a preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, and changes to its calculation can result in "sunnier" or lower reported inflation data.

• African markets are entering the second half of the year facing increased pressure on bank balance sheets and rising borrowing costs. • Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have spiked global energy prices, leading households and businesses in South Africa to raise inflation expectations. • These inflationary pressures have weakened the prospects for interest-rate cuts in South Africa, the continent's largest economy.

• UK households' inflation expectations declined further in the June Citi-YouGov survey, signaling that price concerns are becoming less entrenched. • Citi economist Callum McLaren-Stewart noted that readings have returned to levels seen before the conflict, suggesting a reduced risk of inflation expectations becoming "deanchored." • This trend is significant as it indicates growing consumer confidence in the Bank of England's ability to successfully control price pressures.

• Major stock indexes ended mixed on Thursday as Micron Technology's strong quarterly earnings sparked a rally in memory chips, offsetting losses in other mega-cap tech stocks like Apple. • The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 4.1% year-over-year in May. • This surge from April's 3.8% increase marks a three-year high, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain price stability and manage interest rates.

• The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, reached a three-year high in May. • This surge in prices indicates that inflation remains persistent, complicating the central bank's efforts to stabilize the economy. • The data suggests the Fed will likely keep interest rates steady for now, though the possibility of further rate hikes remains on the table if inflation does not dissipate.

War’s impact on UK cost of living more muted than first forecast suggesting fuel price rises have failed to spill out more widely across UK plcUK inflation stays at 2.8% as slowing food prices offset transport costsBusiness live – latest updatesAs soon as Iran choked off oil supplies through the strait of Hormuz at the start of March, there were dire warnings about rocketing UK inflation and the drastic action the Bank of England might take to rein it in.At one point, investors were expecting as many as three quarter-point rises in interest rates before the end of the year – a sharp turnaround from earlier forecasts of rate cuts. Continue reading...

Country follows ECB in increasing borrowing costs, but US Fed and Bank of England expected to hold ratesBusiness live – latest updatesThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised interest rates to a 31-year high, as it tried to dampen inflationary pressures created by the Iran war.Policymakers in Tokyo raised the BoJ’s short-term policy rate by a quarter of one percentage point, to 1% from 0.75%, and warned that companies were passing on rising oil costs to each other at a “relatively fast pace”. Continue reading...

• The artificial intelligence boom is driving up long-term Treasury yields as "hyperscalers" seek massive funding for data centers, power systems, and computing capacity. • These tech giants are utilizing long-term financing to support infrastructure growth, though some companies maintain diverse fundraising options. • Alphabet recently highlighted this flexibility by announcing an $80 billion stock sale to raise capital.

Households ‘increasingly gloomy’ about finances amid fears of interest rate rises due to higher fuel pricesBusiness live – latest updatesRising prices have become the top financial concern for UK households, according to a monthly consumer confidence survey, before Wednesday’s official figures, which are likely to show inflation remaining stubbornly high.Amid fears of higher interest rates owing to increased fuel prices after the closure of the strait of Hormuz amid the conflict in the Middle East, households have become “increasingly gloomy about their financial situation”, the report said. Continue reading...

• India's manufacturing PMI increased to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March, indicating continued expansion in the sector despite external headwinds. • The uptick reflects strong demand and production growth, though inflationary pressures have intensified due to ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices. • A PMI above 50 signals economic expansion, and the improvement suggests Indian manufacturers are maintaining resilience in production activity and order books.

• The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% last week, citing continued economic expansion but persistent inflation linked to energy prices. • Inflation remains elevated with PCE price index up slightly in March to 3.5% year-over-year. • Decision supports market optimism, contributing to S&P 500 nearing its January record high despite Middle East risks.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined following the latest inflation report on April 10, 2026, easing from recent levels. • Equity futures pointed higher as markets opened, buoyed by the Treasury movement and broader optimism. • This reaction comes amid mixed Wall Street close and anticipation of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, influencing bond and stock positioning.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% Thursday following stronger-than-anticipated producer price inflation data released by the Labor Department, pushing expectations for prolonged higher rates. • Market participants reassessed bets on future rate cuts after Fed speakers emphasized the need for additional months of restrictive policy to bring inflation back toward target levels. • The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2-year-10-year spread widening to 87 basis points, reflecting growing uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of eventual rate cuts.

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined 18 basis points to 3.82% following the cooler-than-expected inflation reading, marking the steepest single-day drop in three months and reflecting a significant repricing of Fed rate cut probability. • Bond investors rushed into longer-duration securities as real yields compressed, with the 2-year Treasury sliding 12 basis points to 3.45%, indicating heightened expectations for near-term monetary easing. • The yield curve steepening trend accelerated, with the 10-2 spread widening to 37 basis points, suggesting market consensus that the Fed will begin cutting rates this spring while maintaining a measured approach to further reductions.

• US S&P 500 futures hovered near flat Friday morning as investors balanced elevated borrowing costs, sticky inflation and Middle East tensions pushing energy prices. • 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.41%, pressuring credit cards and business loans, while 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.38%, making home buying costlier. • Spain's inflation at 3.3% underscores persistent living costs; interest-rate sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and small caps face tighter credit conditions.

• Rising yields across US and international bond markets reflect growing inflation expectations stemming from the energy shock caused by the Iran-US conflict, with 10-year gilts rising 14 basis points. • Market participants are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year as inflation anchoring concerns mount amid geopolitical disruptions to energy supplies. • The bond market deterioration follows Friday's significant equity selloff and signals potential monetary policy tightening ahead, with the Fed focused on ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored despite external supply shocks.