Trading

• Major Asian stock markets experienced a severe crash, with South Korea's KOSPI index suffering the most significant decline. • Trading on the KOSPI was officially halted after a 9% drop triggered a circuit breaker, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 4%. • Other regional indices, including Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China's Shanghai Composite, Taiwan's TAIEX, and Australia's ASX/200, also saw steep plunges.

• On May 27, 2026, the CFTC and DOJ charged Michele Spagnuolo, a Google software engineer based in Switzerland, with insider trading. • Spagnuolo allegedly exploited confidential data regarding Google’s 2025 “Year in Search” rankings to gain an unfair advantage in prediction markets before the information was made public. • This case highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets and the application of traditional insider trading laws to non-traditional financial assets.

• U.S. stock markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, are expected to experience volatile trading on Thursday, with a focus on semiconductor stocks like Broadcom, Micron, and Qualcomm. • Investors are awaiting weekly jobless claims data, which serves as the final economic indicator before Friday's monthly employment report. • The data is critical for new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh ahead of his first policy meeting, especially as consumers face price pressures linked to the Iran war.

• IndusInd Bank's shares fell 3% following a new whistleblower complaint sent to the PMO, RBI, and other regulators. • The complaint alleges significant governance failures, insider trading, and deficiencies in the bank's forensic and audit reviews. • This scrutiny follows a previous March 2025 disclosure regarding a ₹2,000 crore discrepancy in derivatives accounting.

• A Teleios Financial market commentary said May was the best month of 2026 and that the Dow closed above 51,000 for the first time in a shortened four-day trading week. • The same note said the S&P 500 reached 7,580, underscoring how strongly large-cap U.S. equities have advanced even after recent geopolitical volatility. • The move matters for the broader U.S. business outlook because new highs can reinforce consumer and corporate confidence, while also raising valuation concerns for fund managers.

• India's stock trading value reached a record high as passive funds executed massive trades to align portfolios with revised MSCI index weightings. • The surge was driven by portfolio adjustments, though local equities slumped 1.5% during the final hour of trading on Friday as the changes took effect. • This volatility highlights the significant influence of global benchmark indices on the liquidity and price movements of the Indian stock market.

• Prediction markets have evolved into a multi-billion-dollar industry allowing users to bet on diverse real-world outcomes, including elections, interest rate decisions, and military operations. • Regulators and observers are increasingly concerned that some participants are leveraging privileged insider information to gain an unfair advantage and profit. • This scrutiny matters because the rise of these markets creates potential loopholes for insider trading that could undermine the integrity of financial and political forecasting.

• London has reclaimed its title as Europe's top technology hub, surpassing Paris according to the Global Tech Ecosystem Index 2026 released by Dealroom. • The shift is primarily driven by a surge in investment and growth within artificial intelligence and deep tech innovation. • This recovery highlights London's resilience and its ability to attract high-value capital despite previous economic challenges.

• The US stock market for the week of May 25, 2026, experienced a narrow rally primarily driven by mega-cap technology and AI-related stocks. • Market performance was heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which impacted oil prices and inflation expectations more than traditional economic indicators. • This trend highlights a shift toward a "wait-and-see" approach among investors, resulting in unpredictable price movements as they monitor geopolitical outcomes.

• South Korea's Kospi index reached a new record high on Tuesday as Asia-Pacific markets generally trended higher. • The positive momentum is driven by investor optimism regarding potential breakthroughs in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. • Other regional markets showed mixed results, with China's CSI 300 opening unchanged and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slipping 0.49% after a Monday public holiday.

• Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) announced on May 7, 2026, the launch of its new AI‑enhanced market‑risk‑monitoring platform, which integrates real‑time connectivity‑pattern analysis and language‑model‑based compliance checks on trading messages. • The system, built with a Hong Kong‑based AI fintech partner, analyzes more than 4.8 million order‑book events per second and can automatically flag highly probable manipulative patterns such as quote spamming, wash‑trading, and quote‑stuffing. • HKEX expects the platform to reduce false‑positive alerts by 45% compared with legacy rule‑based systems, easing the workload of compliance officers and enabling faster response to live‑market anomalies.

• Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold Indian stocks on 150 out of the past 240 trading days, reflecting a sustained outflow trend over the last several months. • The selling pressure is attributed to rising oil prices, rupee weakness, and elevated US bond yields, which have made emerging market assets less attractive relative to US fixed income. • This persistent FII exit contrasts with India's overall attractiveness as a global investment destination and poses near-term headwinds for equity valuations.

Citi analysts upgrade profit forecast by 20% to $2.6bn for January to March despite flat oil and gas productionBusiness live – latest updatesBP expects to post “exceptional” earnings from its oil trading desk, reaping a windfall from choppy energy markets triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran.Energy traders are navigating significant market volatility after Tehran’s effective closure of the key strait of Hormuz shipping route. Continue reading...

Company earnings expected to soar to between $200m and $700m in first quarterBusiness live – latest updatesShell is expected to report “significantly higher” profits from its commodity trading desks in the first quarter of this year after weeks of market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis.The surge in energy commodity markets over recent weeks is expected to drive up trading results at Shell’s chemicals and products unit, which includes its main oil trading desk. Continue reading...

• U.S. stocks edged higher on March 30, 2026, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% in afternoon trading after its worst week since the war with Iran began. • The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 257 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also advanced amid ongoing market volatility. • Oil prices continued climbing due to uncertainty over the timeline of the U.S.-Iran war, contributing to swinging trading sessions on Wall Street.

• Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) and Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act on March 25, 2026, prohibiting members of Congress, the president, vice president, spouses, dependents, and senior executive branch employees from trading in prediction markets on political events or policy decisions. • The bill imposes civil penalties of 10% of the violating transaction's value plus full disgorgement of profits to the U.S. Treasury, amid rising bipartisan concerns over platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. • 'The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain, and the rise of prediction markets has made those concerns even more relevant,' Budzinski stated.

Top prediction market sites usher in new guardrails after senators introduced bill that could limit booming industryKalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction market sites, rushed to institute new industry guardrails and add new surveillance tools on Monday after two key senators announced legislation that could severely curtail the industry’s prospects.Kalshi said it would ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, and it would preemptively block anyone involved in college or professional sports from trading contracts related to the sports they play or are employed by. Continue reading...

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supported a proposal strengthening capital requirements for banks' trading desks, calibrated to U.S. capital markets. The rules aim to enhance resilience without stifling market-making activities. This comes amid volatile conditions from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures. Implementation could influence bank profitability and lending in the coming quarters.