Labor Supply During Downturns: The Missing Causality Test in Monetary Transmission
• A new study examines the "added-worker effect," where households increase labor supply during economic downturns to compensate for lost income and security. • Research indicates that recessions can lift married women’s labor-force participation by approximately 0.93 percentage points as secondary earners enter the market. • The findings highlight a critical causality gap, suggesting that labor responses may be a form of household self-insurance rather than a direct result of central-bank monetary tightening.
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