Valuations

• The European Central Bank (ECB) is analyzing a significant surge in euro area banks' price-to-book (P/B) ratios projected for 2025. • While high valuations may indicate strong earnings power, the ECB warns they could also stem from investor over-optimism and compressed equity risk premia. • This trend matters because it poses potential risks to financial stability if expectations for economic growth or return on equity are not realized.

• The Business Times reports AI enthusiasm propelled markets higher, with gains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap tech firms while broader corporate earnings lag behind soaring valuations. • Hong Kong emerged as an AI startup launchpad, achieving a five-year high in fundraising during Q1 2026, alongside Chinese VC/PE funding surging past 400 billion yuan (US$59 billion). • ChiNext Index reached an 11-year intra-day high of 3,785.23 on April 23, fueled by funds piling into optical-communication stocks like Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink on bets of US AI infrastructure demand.

• Berkshire Hathaway's cash and equivalents surged to $168 billion at the end of Q1 2026, its highest level in over a decade, as Warren Buffett continued to reduce equity holdings amid concerns over elevated asset valuations. • The conglomerate reduced its Apple stake by 8% during the quarter and trimmed Bank of America holdings further, citing a lack of compelling investment opportunities in current market conditions. • Investment income from fixed-income holdings generated $3.2 billion in the first quarter alone, demonstrating how Berkshire's massive cash reserve is now earning meaningful returns in a higher-rate environment.

• Oracle reported earnings that exceeded expectations, lifting its stock price, while Adobe continues to face investor skepticism over its AI strategy and competitive positioning amid broader tech sector repricing. • Morningstar downgraded Adobe's economic moat rating alongside Salesforce and ServiceNow, citing concerns that AI disruption could erode traditional software competitive advantages and justify lower valuation multiples. • The broader earnings season reveals a disconnect between traditional valuation metrics and AI disruption risks, prompting investors to reassess which software companies can sustain pricing power and market share in an AI-transformed landscape.