Conflict

• アラブ首長国連邦（UAE）は昨日OPECから脱退し、深刻化する地域危機の中でサウジアラビアとの歴史的な決別を印象づけた。 • この決定は、イラン産原油の輸出阻止を目的とした米国による海上封鎖により、ホルムズ海峡がほぼ完全に封鎖されている状況と重なっている。 • 米国はイラン産原油の取引を阻止するため、中国の大大手銀行を自国の金融システムから排除すると脅しており、世界的なエネルギー情勢の緊張を高めている。

The Israeli military began carrying out strikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding the scope of its bombing campaign during a ceasefire that has failed to fully halt hostilities with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

• UN International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that the blockading of ships in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict has turned international shipping and seafarers into leverage in geopolitical disputes. • The crisis highlights how vessels and crews, not involved in the conflict, are being caught up in hostilities between the United States and Iran, disrupting global trade routes. • This development underscores critical weaknesses in global shipping networks, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and risks to maritime security worldwide.

• The International Criminal Court announced Friday the issuance of an arrest warrant for General Ahmed Hassan al-Madibbo, a prominent Sudan Armed Forces commander, citing evidence of war crimes including extrajudicial killings and enforced displacement in Darfur since April 2023. • ICC prosecutors presented evidence of at least 127 documented extrajudicial executions of civilians and systematic attacks on refugee camps housing over 2 million displaced persons, with al-Madibbo alleged to have direct command responsibility. • Sudan's military government rejected the warrant and accused the ICC of bias toward the Rapid Support Forces militia; the announcement intensified international pressure on Khartoum to cooperate with the court's investigations.

• U.S. lawmakers and foreign policy analysts have reached bipartisan consensus that Russia and Iran have formed a "transformational" military alliance that extends far beyond diplomatic convenience, fundamentally reshaping conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. • The alliance involves weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, and sanctions-evasion tactics, with experts describing the relationship's trajectory as shifting "from turbulent to transactional to transformational" following Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. • Senator Tom Tillis emphasized the lethal implications for American personnel, stating that intelligence and satellite data sharing between Moscow and Tehran directly endangers U.S. service members deployed globally.

• US military missile inventories, including Tomahawks, Patriots, and THAAD interceptors, are depleting faster than production rates amid the Iran war launched February 28, 2026. • President Trump extended the Iran truce, prompting questions on whether it's a diplomatic move or a pause to resupply amid sustainability concerns. • The conflict, triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has led to Iranian retaliation and Strait of Hormuz closure, disrupting global oil supplies.

• The United Nations reported that renewed fighting in South Sudan has displaced over 500,000 people in the past month, creating a humanitarian emergency affecting food security across the region. • The World Food Programme warned that without immediate intervention, famine conditions could emerge within 60 days, affecting approximately 8 million people across South Sudan and neighboring countries. • The US has committed an additional $150 million in humanitarian assistance, but aid organizations stress that security challenges continue to impede delivery of food and medical supplies to affected populations.

• US stocks demonstrated resilience amid Iran geopolitical tensions and high energy prices, with the S&P 500 up nearly 2% year-to-date by April 14, just 1% below its January 27 all-time high. • The index's maximum drawdown stayed under 10%, cushioned by forward earnings estimates growing at a 17% annual rate despite a 20% drop in P/E ratios. • S&P 500 profit margins hit new highs around 15% in early April, driven by broad fundamentals including AI and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act effects, not just energy sector gains.

• The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Donald Trump to withdraw threats of devastating strikes. • Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed acceptance of the ceasefire and announced negotiations with the US will commence in Pakistan on Friday. • The deal follows US strikes on over ninety targets on Kharg Island, described by officials as 'restrikes' to further damage prior sites, amid heightened tensions.

• Brent crude oil settled 4.7% higher at $99.39 per barrel on April 16 amid caution over Iran war. • Prices have risen from $70 pre-war to peaks near $119 due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. • The climb tempers market optimism, highlighting persistent energy supply risks.

• IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% due to US-Iran conflict impacts. • The cut assumes contained conflict with 19% energy price rise, but escalation could drop growth to 2%. • 2027 outlook held at 3.2%, with effects expected to ease by mid-2026.

• The Pentagon is reportedly reaching out to civilian manufacturers including Ford and General Motors to boost weapons production, as years of supplying Ukraine followed by sustained Middle East operations have allegedly drained critical missile stockpiles. • Reports suggest the US military is facing a deepening munitions crisis affecting high-tech systems like THAAD and Tomahawk missiles, raising questions about industrial capacity to meet demand. • The growing focus on weapons production and ceasefire negotiations has sparked debate about whether diplomatic efforts are being driven by strategy or by supply constraints.

A top UN official has criticised lack of global urgency as reports confirm the world’s largest humanitarian crisis is worseningEfforts to end Sudan’s catastrophic war have been criticised as “unacceptable” by the country’s top UN official as a series of new reports confirm that the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis is worsening.Speaking to the Guardian on the eve of the third anniversary of the war, Denise Brown expressed her concern over the apparent lack of political urgency to end a conflict that has forced 14 million Sudanese to flee their homes. Tens of thousands of people are missing. Continue reading...

• The UN's top aid official has warned that Sudan's humanitarian crisis is being abandoned as the war between rival militaries enters its fourth year, with attacks intensifying and humanitarian access shrinking following a deadly airstrike on a funeral gathering in West Kordofan. • Civilians caught in the conflict face mounting dangers as the situation deteriorates, with the UN condemning the escalating violence and calling for renewed international attention to the neglected crisis. • The warnings come as the global community grapples with multiple concurrent conflicts, raising concerns about resource allocation and diplomatic focus on overlooked humanitarian emergencies.

• The EU Council approved a new sanctions package on April 11 targeting 28 Russian oligarchs and 15 companies involved in military procurement, freezing assets valued at approximately €3.2 billion. • The sanctions aim to disrupt Russian defense supply chains and increase pressure on Moscow's ability to sustain military operations in Ukraine, with measures including travel bans and financial transaction restrictions. • EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell stated the sanctions demonstrate "unwavering support" for Ukraine, though critics argue they remain insufficient to alter Russian strategic calculations.

Social media post names no names but criticizes attempts to use religion to glorify US war in Middle EastPope Leo XIV on Friday offered a new criticism of war, in a social media post that named no names but appeared to hint at the Trump administration leadership harnessing Christian nationalism to glorify the US and Israel’s war against Iran.“God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs,” Leo wrote on his official X account. “Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.” Continue reading...

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called President Trump a 'military moron' and announced Democrats will force a vote on a War Powers Resolution next week 'to end this war for good.' • The push comes amid challenges on the first full day of the two-week Iran War ceasefire, with U.S. and Iran disagreeing over Israel's Hezbollah conflict. • Many congressional Democrats labeled Trump's profanity-laden threats to Iran 'unhinged,' following weekend warnings to target infrastructure.

Average price dips back below £300,000 after higher energy costs have knock-on effect on mortgage ratesUK house prices fell in March, as the housing market lost momentum amid uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East and the impact on the economy and interest rates.Figures from Halifax, which is part of Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender – showed property prices dipped by 0.5% in March compared with a month earlier. As a result, the average price of a home slipped back below £300,000, to £299,677, after first crossing the milestone in January. Continue reading...

Anutin Charnvirakul warns country is vulnerable over reliance on oil imports as countries across Asia introduce conservation measuresThailand’s prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, has called on the public to conserve energy, urging work-from-home measures and carpooling, as he warned of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.In a statement posted on social media, Anutin said Thailand was exposed to the crisis because of its reliance on imported oil and gas, and the country could not be complacent. Continue reading...

• Oil prices surged as geopolitical tensions related to the Iran war intensified, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade causing the largest global oil supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis. • The US dollar strengthened amid escalating geopolitical risk, reflecting investor flight to safe-haven assets as financial markets react to the conflict's economic impact on energy supplies and global trade.

• US federal agents arrested Hamideh Soleimani Afshar, niece of slain IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani, and her daughter on April 4 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio revoked their permanent resident status. • The State Department confirmed the pair is in ICE custody, marking the first direct targeting of Soleimani's family since his 2020 US drone strike killing. • This symbolically charged action uses immigration enforcement as a weapon in the ongoing war with Iran, viewing Soleimani connections as IRGC-adjacent threats.

Archbishop of Canterbury to issue urgent call for peace, as PM exhorts Britons to ‘choose community over division’Religious and political leaders in the UK are highlighting the conflict in the Middle East in their Easter messages, calling for “peace, justice and freedom” in the region.The archbishop of Canterbury will deliver her first Easter sermon at Canterbury Cathedral on Sunday as the Church of England’s top bishop. Dame Sarah Mullally will call “with renewed urgency” for peace in the Middle East and pray for “an end to the violence and destruction” in the region. Continue reading...

• Austria has rejected multiple US requests for military overflights of its territory since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, 2026. • The decision underscores Vienna's strict neutrality policy, complicating US logistics for regional operations against Iranian targets. • This refusal highlights growing European divisions on supporting US actions, potentially delaying reinforcements to Middle East bases.

• The US-Israeli war on Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, with strikes on leadership and nuclear facilities, has led to Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure, rivaling 1970s oil crises. • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing sparked Iranian strikes on Israel and US bases, disrupting 20% of global oil transit and surging prices by 40%. • US markets face inflation risks, with experts warning of recession if chokepoint remains closed beyond two weeks.

• Two U.S. fighter jets were downed by Iranian fire, with one pilot successfully rescued following an active search and rescue mission in the ongoing Iran conflict. • Two Black Hawk helicopters were also struck by incoming Iranian fire during operations, according to defense officials. • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has maintained that U.S. forces have significantly degraded Iran's air defense capabilities in recent weeks.

• Türkiye positions itself at the center of diplomatic initiatives and alternative energy transit routes as U.S.-Israel-Iran hostilities enter their second month. • Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conducted intense phone diplomacy and Gulf trips, coordinating with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan on ceasefire frameworks. • Ankara prioritizes preventing escalation, staying outside direct hostilities while warning against conflict expansion amid surging global oil prices.

• Russia and Egypt have jointly called for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran conflict, urging all parties to return to diplomatic negotiations as tensions escalate across the Gulf region. • The call for de-escalation comes amid ongoing military strikes, Iranian retaliation threats, and regional instability affecting global oil markets and international security. • Diplomatic efforts by non-Western powers reflect growing international concern about the conflict's potential to expand and destabilize the broader Middle East.

Catholic Timothy Broglio says ‘hard to cast this war as something that would be sponsored by the Lord’The leader of all Catholic chaplains in the United States’ armed forces has questioned how righteous the US military’s campaign in Iran is, saying that “under the just war theory – it is not”.Archbishop Timothy Broglio, head of the Catholic Archdiocese for the Military Services USA, told CBS News in an interview set for broadcast Sunday that while Iran “was a threat with nuclear arms”, waging war on the theocratic state constituted “compensating for a threat before the threat is actually realized”. Continue reading...