Shock

• De waarde van fusies en overnames (M&A) in de Aziatisch-Pacifische regio is ingestort tot $127 miljard, een aanzienlijke daling veroorzaakt door belangrijke aankondigingen over invoertarieven in de hele regio. • De tariefshock heeft de corporate transactieactiviteit verstoord, waarbij financiële adviseurs melding maken van een aanzienlijke terugtrekking in de deal-pipelines omdat bedrijven hun expansiestrategieën herzien te midden van handelsonzekerheid. • Investeringsbanken, waaronder JPMorgan en Houlihan Lokey, herijken hun M&A-adviesstrategieën, aangezien de dealwaarden scherp zijn gedaald vergeleken met eerdere prognoses voor 2026.

• Moody's heeft India aangewezen als een van de meest veerkrachtige economieën ter wereld, waarbij een sterke marktstabiliteit is getoond tijdens recente internationale financiële ontrichtingen, zonder significante beperkingen in de toegang tot de kapitaalmarkt. • Het ratingbureau merkte op dat India beperkte en kortstondige bewegingen in de soevereine credit spreads handhaafde, de waardedaling van de valuta wist te beperken en een stabiele volatiliteit van de obligatierendementen vertoonde tijdens perioden van wereldwijde stress. • De centrale bank en het institutionele kader van India zijn erin geslaagd het vertrouwen van investeerders te verankeren en de valuta-volatiliteit te versoepelen, wat het land onderscheidt van zwakkere peer-economieën die met soortgelijke externe druk kampen.

• Oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel and broke through $115 as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude rising 6% amid U.S. efforts to free up shipping lanes. • The S&P 500 fell with all 11 sectors declining except energy (+0.9%); Dow Jones dropped approximately 1%, while Asia ex-Japan surged 2.8% led by KOSPI's 5% gain to new highs. • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve by 7-10 basis points, with the 30-year Treasury clearing 5.0% as inflation pressures mount and the USD index moved higher above 98.

Jitu Munda says he was repeatedly refused access to money left in her account in case highlighting ‘lack of humanity’ in Indian bureaucracyThe sight of a man bringing the remains of his dead sister to a bank in India after officials had refused to let him withdraw money without proof of her death has caused shock in India.Jitu Munda, 52, from the Indian state of Odisha, was captured on video carrying the remains of his recently deceased sister through the streets of Keonjhar and placing them outside the local bank. Continue reading...

Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday•Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastInflation jumped to 4.6% in the year to March, from 3.7% the month before, in what experts say is the start of an Iran war-linked fuel shock that will ripple through the economy over coming months.Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank will hike interest rates for a third straight meeting next Tuesday, as officials struggle to manage the “nightmare scenario” of containing inflation even as growth is expected to slow sharply. Continue reading...

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, was cited as saying by state news agency Xinhua that the economy got off to a better-than-expected start this year.

China sold goods worth about $148bn to EU in first quarter of year, but imported just $65bnThe EU is experiencing a prolonged “China shock” as a flood of Chinese EVs into Europe helped push Beijing to a record surplus with the bloc.New data showed China’s trade surplus – where its exports to the EU exceeded imports from the bloc – was $83bn (£61bn) in the first three months of 2026. Continue reading...

Questions raised about political violence, security and gun control after brazen attack at event attended by top officialsWhite House press dinner shooting aftermath – latest updatesA stunned Washington faced searching questions about political violence and gun control on Sunday after shots were fired at a prestigious media gala attended by Donald Trump and senior White House officials.A man targeted a Secret Service agent at a security checkpoint in the Washington Hilton hotel the previous night before being tackled and arrested. Trump and Melania Trump were rushed out of the annual White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner as guests dived for cover under tables. Continue reading...

Lack of a sustained plan to end the war has convinced US allies that the White House is running out of ideasNearly eight weeks after Donald Trump launched his assault on Iran, the White House has shifted from a strategy of shock-and-awe bombardments and leadership decapitation to a plan of sustained economic pressure as it tests the wills of a regime practiced over decades at wars of attrition.Since the negotiations stalled, the White House has begun to shift its messaging to say it is willing to wait to strike a more durable deal with Iran – despite the growing economic toll inflicted on the world economy by the closure of the strait of Hormuz. The reason, senior officials have said, is because of the joint US-Israeli strikes were so successful that they have fractured Iran’s leadership and prevented a new consolidation of power. Continue reading...

Move marks government’s most radical attempt to weaken impact of soaring wholesale gas prices on electricity costsClean energy generation exceeded rise in global electricity demand in 2025The government has confirmed plans to move older wind and solar farms which make up almost a third of Great Britain’s power market on to fixed-price contracts to help protect households and businesses from future gas market shocks.Under the plans, first revealed by the Guardian, renewable energy projects that earn subsidies on top of the market price will be asked to sign up to contracts that pay a set price for electricity as part of the government’s plan to “delink the price of electricity from the price of gas”. Continue reading...

As fossil fuel prices soar ‘the era of clean energy security must come of age’, energy secretary will sayEd Miliband will double down on Labour’s commitment to net zero in the face of the Middle East conflict this week, insisting that as fossil fuel prices soar “the era of clean energy security must come of age”.The energy secretary is set to announce a package of new policies in a speech on Tuesday in response to an expected energy crisis prompted by Donald Trump’s war with Iran. Continue reading...

Conflict is pushing up price of energy and food, fuelling higher borrowing costs and hitting growth, report saysIran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warnsBusiness live – latest updatesThe Iran war risks triggering a rise in global debt levels, forcing governments to choose between cushioning a cost of living shock and maintaining sound public finances, the International Monetary Fund has warned.Against a volatile backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Washington-based fund said the war could add to the already strained position of government finances throughout the world. Continue reading...

• Finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Washington for IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are confronting an unprecedented global energy shock caused by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. • Georgieva warned that "there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante," indicating long-term economic impacts regardless of ceasefire outcomes or efforts to reopen shipping routes. • The energy crisis is already affecting hundreds of millions of people globally, with decisions made at the meetings regarding resource allocation and emergency funding expected to have tangible impacts on livelihoods in the coming weeks.

Weakened economic activity, soaring fuel prices and rising inflation have created a horror scenario, RBA deputy governor saysFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAndrew Hauser, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor, says the “stagflationary shock” from the Iran war is a “central banker’s nightmare”, as confidence among Australian households crashed to its lowest level in years.Speaking at an event in New York on Tuesday morning AEST, Hauser said the RBA was “judging the balance” between the damage to the economy from “a big income shock” associated with soaring fuel prices, versus a sharp rise in inflation. Continue reading...

LA28 set aside tickets for LA and Oklahoma City residents, but some say they faced exorbitant prices and high feesSince tickets for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles went on sale for local residents on 2 April, excitement for the Games has given way to sticker shock among some Angelenos over what they describe as exorbitant prices and an unexpected service fee.LA28 had made a wave of slots in the presale ticket lottery available for residents throughout southern California, where the majority of contests will take place, and in Oklahoma City, which will host the canoe slalom and softball events. Tickets ranged in price from $28 into the thousands. Continue reading...

Oil prices and borrowing costs are expected to rise this week as tankers remain stranded in Persian gulfMiddle East crisis live – latest updatesThe failure of the US and Iran to reach a peace deal after marathon negotiations has put markets on alert for further oil and gas price rises.With large numbers of oil tankers remaining stuck in the Persian gulf, the US vice-president, JD Vance blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources hit back at “excessive” demands from Washington. Continue reading...

Dozens of dogs were found crammed into single living room space at property in undisclosed location in UKMore than 250 dogs have been found at a property in scenes so shocking that the RSPCA was forced to deny allegations that the images were faked by artificial intelligence.The animal welfare charity said it took in 87 dogs from the property at an undisclosed location in the UK and the remainder went to the Dogs Trust, another charity. Continue reading...

Analysis shows they are reliant on market investors such as hedge funds, which contributed $4tn last yearBusiness live – latest updatesEmerging economies are at greater risk of higher interest rates and currency shocks as a result of the Iran war because of increased reliance on market investors such as hedge funds, the International Monetary Fund has warned.The IMF’s analysis shows that a cumulative $4tn flowed into emerging markets last year from outside the formal banking sector – including from hedge funds and investment funds. Continue reading...

• Recent geopolitical tensions are fundamentally altering maritime shipping routes for energy commodities worldwide. • Energy shipping companies are implementing agile strategies to navigate heightened tensions and supply chain disruptions. • The shift in maritime logistics has broader implications for global energy prices and international trade networks.

Woman assaulted after man was given key card to her room criticises CEO Jo Boydell over cancelled meetingA woman who was sexually assaulted by a man who was handed a key card to her room at a Travelodge has said she was shocked to learn the hotel chain’s boss cancelled a meeting with a group of MPs seeking to discuss concerns about the case.More than 20 MPs had demanded the meeting this month to discuss the matter – including details of the chain’s security processes and procedures that led to it offering the victim an “insulting” £30 refund after the incident. Continue reading...

Broadcaster takes Kiis FM to court to argue licensee was wrong to terminate him for serious breach of contractFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesSign up for Guardian Australia’s free weekly media newsletter hereKyle Sandilands’ court case was not an occasion for a “royal commission” into his career and he just wants to get back to work quickly, the shock jock’s lawyers have told the federal court.Sandilands, who was earning $10m a year to front the Kyle and Jackie O Show, has taken Kiis FM to court to argue the licensee, Commonwealth Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), was wrong to terminate him for serious breach of contract earlier this month. Continue reading...

Dayton Webber’s former playing partner says: ‘Dayton has a great family, and I care about that family. Yet obviously, there is somebody [who] died’The former doubles partner of a professional, championship-winning cornhole player who had his four limbs amputated in his infancy and is now accused of a deadly shooting says he was shocked to learn about the case, calling it an instance of at least two families being torn apart in one fell swoop.“I’ve been mad, sad – it sucks,” Mike Hoffman said of his past cornhole teammate Dayton Webber during a telephone interview on Tuesday. Continue reading...

PM indicates he would prefer to focus taxpayer-funded help on poorest households, rather than universal bailoutMinisters are looking at providing support for household bills next winter, Keir Starmer said, as he suggested the energy price shock unleashed by the Iran conflict could continue for months to come.The prime minister indicated he would prefer to focus any taxpayer-funded help on the poorest households, rather than an expensive universal bailout, ahead of an emergency meeting on the economic fallout of the Middle East crisis. Continue reading...

Fatih Birol says effects on energy markets from Iran bombings and closure of strait of Hormuz not initially understood by world leaders. Plus, feminist magazine reclaims Charlie Kirk-style campus toursGood morning.The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.Why is the ex-CIA chief Leon Panetta in the news? He has spoken out about Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, telling the Guardian the US president is “sending a message of weakness” to the world.What’s the latest in Iran? Its government is threatening to lay mines across entire Gulf if its coasts are attacked.This is a developing story. Follow our liveblog here.What happened? The aircraft hit the fire truck while travelling at about 24mph, according to the flight-tracking website Flightradar24. In the moments before the crash, an air traffic controller could be heard giving clearance to a fire vehicle to cross part of the runway, then trying to stop it. The controller can then be heard quickly diverting incoming aircraft from landing. Continue reading...

Fatih Birol says effect on energy markets of Iran bombings and closure of Hormuz strait not initially understood by world leadersMiddle East crisis live – latest updatesThe global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the growing fallout could be seriously compounded through interuptions to the “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulfur and helium. Continue reading...

• All major central banks adopted hawkish stances last week as energy market disruptions reignited inflation concerns, prompting global reassessment of monetary policy outlooks and eliminating prior rate-cut expectations. • U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets over the next 12 months have been priced out entirely, while most other advanced economies have begun pricing in additional rate hikes; the December Monetary Policy Report that implied a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by Q4 2026 is now obsolete. • The combination of persistent energy price shocks and hardening central bank stances creates a "brutal combo for risk assets," with the dollar index remaining anchored in the 96.00-100.00 range as USD risks remain skewed to the upside during periods of financial market stress.

Leveraging Australian gas exports to ensure we get oil in return is among the offbeat ideas we could be hearing more aboutGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastThe International Energy Agency suggested Australia reduce road speed limits, restrict car use in big cities and encourage more working from home in a bid to nullify what it called the “greatest threat to global energy supply in the history of the world”.They won’t be the only interesting or offbeat ideas raised in federal parliament this week, as the Albanese government comes under pressure to find fixes – short-term and long-term – to the oil shocks seeing more bowsers run dry across the nation. Continue reading...

Donald Trump’s ‘little excursion’ is likely to have long-term effects, from oil prices to inflation to growth, say expertsIn the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.“There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’ Continue reading...